Stray Observations (Game 59): Dallas wins a street fight over Nashville in overtime, 3-2

It wasn't pretty. But it was well-earned.

There’s something about these games that feels…lowkey. Dallas is out several key pieces, but their opposition is pretty week, and the trade deadline is the end of next week. It all feels like waiting despite players doing their best to be ready in time for what they hope is another deep run; their fourth consecutive, in fact.

So naturally, there was nothing lowkey about this game. In point of fact, take away Nashville’s place in the standings (who, it should be said, isn’t that far out of a wild card spot), and this felt like a proper playoff game. It was competitive, it was close, and there were more than a few plays that likely would have earned timeout in a more casual setting. There was nothing casual about this game. Dallas had to beat a two-goal deficit before beating Nashville in overtime.

That’s now 14 wins in which Dallas has trailed a game. Eight wins to a beat a one-goal deficit, and now six to beat a two-goal deficit. The latter — overcoming a two-goal deficit — is the second-best mark in the league, behind only the Anaheim Ducks, who have an absurd nine wins after trailing by two. In most years, I would interpret that stat in multiple ways; first as a positive (a win’s a win) and second as a negative (wins shouldn’t need to be that hard for elite teams). The Ducks, for example, clearly owe the hockey gods a beer. However, the condensed schedule adds a little nuance to this pattern, and it’s something Dallas will need to harness in the postseason.

All in all, I thought it was a good performance. The Predators might not seem like much, but they’re extremely effective at pressuring opponents, owning one of the more dangerous shot-quality generating tags thanks to an extremely strong forechecking profile. This was the definition of a trap game. And Dallas won with an exclamation mark.

Power play

I saw a lot of criticism directed at the Stars power play. I don’t get it. Dallas is missing two of their top power play forwards. Not only are they missing two of their top power play forwards, but Nashville is 13th on the PK. What you’ll never hear on a broadcast though — and I personally find information like this critical for viewers who may be new to hockey — is that Nashville is top five in scoring chances¹ allowed when adjusted for minutes. The Predators would have been a hard out even with Dallas’ healthy top unit on the ice. That’s not to say the power play doesn’t warrant criticism, only that it really felt like Nashville applying effective pressure rather than Dallas beating themselves. Also, there’s just no substitute for Mikko Rantanen’s puck control. Or Neil Graham’s tutelage, given that they still broke through thanks to who else. Speaking of…

Wyatt Johnston: elite

Johnston is currently on track to tie Sam Reinhart’s power play goal total of 27. That would be the second most power play goals by a forward over the last (almost) 20 years, assuming he gets there. He’s four shy of having as many power play goals as Toronto has…as a team (!). I don’t think he’ll hit Leon Draisaitl’s 32, but he also doesn’t appear to be slowing down. It’ll be interesting to see how his even-strength performance stacks up following the deadline. Once Rantanen returns, you have to think their top six will be finally solidified.

Tyler Seguin is officially out

It’s so weird. There are plenty of players who have declined with age, or simply had their careers cut short from serious injuries. But it’s rare to see a player suffer through an accumulation of injuries…and continually fight through them with actual success. Seguin was on pace for 50 points this year. If he had been healthy last season and this, that would have been his fourth consecutive 50-point season. For a player who lost his prime a long time ago, I’ve always found that impressive; impressive how Seguin has remodeled his entire approach, and yet remained effective as — functionally — a different player. So yea. It’s a bummer.

Meandering Strays

• I’m still liking Arttu Hyry on that fourth line. Unlike his fourth line peers, he’s not just more talented handling the puck, but he seems to have a good spider sense when it comes to defensive stickwork. It’s one of those things always worth remembering about AHLers: they have a tendency to surprise because the AHL is such a north/south chaos machine. The end result is that even north/south players don’t always look great down there. Recall Roope Hintz’ production in Cedar Park, which was hardly anything to write home about. Conversely, Mavrik Bourque played out of his mind².

• Mavrik Bourque paired next to Johnston and Jason Robertson have some predictably solid chemistry. One wonders if Dallas won’t be interested in finding someone next to Hintz and Rantanen instead. Either way, watch out for a left winger on an expiring contract.

• Jake Oettinger looked rusty to start, but quickly shook off that rust as the game wound down. Oettinger remains the Stars’ x-factor, less for what he’s accomplished and more for what he most prove going into the postseason.

• Who else but Jason Robertson in overtime? While he was relatively quiet most of the game, I thought he looked solid throughout, making little plays in all three zones to contend with Nashville’s toughest matchups.

• The Predators are still in the hunt. They’re only one point out of the final wild card spot, which is owned by Seattle; a team that I personally believe will miss. If we assume that, then that leaves Nashville and L.A. in the race down the stretch. As much as I dislike the way the Kings have built their roster, not to mention the way they are coached, they’re still a strong possession team that I believe should make it. With Dallas breathing down Colorado’s neck a little, life sure would be easier if Dallas vs. Nashville was the round one matchup.

1. A scoring chance has a very specific definition, and it’s relevant for a lot of blindspots in advanced stats.

2. It always takes me back to 2016 when we were super pumped about Jason Dickinson running side by side with Mikko Rantanen