Stray Observations (Game 67): Utah breaks Dallas' 15-game point streak as Stars fall 6-3

It was really good...at least until the end.

The Dallas Stars are on a historic run. However, lately it’s been about more than just the wins versus the losses. It’s been about a new process. This team is dominating the amount of scoring chances from game to game. Unlike early in the season, when it felt like every win came with an asterisk, there is zero to indicate that this team will slow down. Enter the spoiler.

Puck Knowers are more than aware of the Mammoth. Last season they were much better than their record indicated. A lot of models loved them even last year, and some considered them a statistical playoff lock. Dallas was always going to have their hands full. And so they did. But not in the way you would think judging only by the score.

I’ll go ahead and say it, and by all means — at me. I thought this was a really good game. I thought it was a good game by Dallas too! Am I saying that because I didn’t watch the game and only looked at the spreadsheets? I’m not good at much, but growing up on Mountain Dew and the original Quake has forced me to multitask, so I do.

Yes, Dallas had the better goal cake. But unlike scenarios where the casual fan may not be able to intuitively unpack what they’re looking at, I think this is a good example of a very intuitive interpretation.

Yes, the score was 6-3. But think back to those odd-angle shots that went in. And consider the chances Dallas generated that withered randomly on the vine. Or that hilarious penalty kill explosion of offense. Here’s a fun stat for the night: Dallas actually generated more high danger chances (2) on the PK than Utah did on their power play (0). In fact, the Mammoth’s PP was 37 percent in Corsi-For, having been outshot 3 to 5. The Stars almost had the same amount of high danger looks as Utah had total attempts.

I’m not saying that Dallas deserved to win based on the math; just that I think they played the same way they’ve been playing during the streak — pretty damn well. The score spiraled out of control but I didn’t think their play did. Yes, Utah dummied them at times, but good teams can make other good teams look bad (Colorado is experiencing this same concept to Pittsburgh as of this writing). Granted, Dallas’ third-period performances have lagged a bit, even in some of their wins. But Monday night didn’t show me a different team, nor did it feel like the team laid an egg. It felt like a more unfortunate loss than an outright bad one.

Rush for rush

One of the things I talked in my brief preview of this game was seeing how Dallas would deal with Utah’s rush. Historically, going back to last season with Pete DeBoer, the Stars have been poor at defending it. That was the case early in the season as well. While we don’t have recent data to see how much of their turnaround has been affected by it, I suspect old habits die hard. Even the best teams can have flaws, of course, so I’m not saying this is something Dallas should be worried about going into the postseason — only that styles make fights. Utah was more than happy to make Monday night a sprint instead of a marathon.

Faceoffs

I don’t get it. Why do us “analytics guys”¹ always get dragged through the mud about whether or not faceoffs matter. Do “analytics guys” say that zone entries don’t matter? Or zone exits? Any hockey play directly or indirectly affecting possession matters. It’s just a question of degree. Part of the reason for advanced stats in the first place is to create clearer language. What even defines a faceoff win, for example? Here’s the faceoff before Utah’s second goal.

“This is why faceoffs are so important.”

You didn’t hear that line, of course, because calling the faceoff crucial to this play would be a challenge, since it’s not terribly clear who wins in the first place. At first I thought Hyry won, and then lost possession. On second glance, it appears Logan Cooley wins it. On third glance, it seems like neither. The puck bounces around with both men locked into the dual and Utah gets the favorable bounce when it appears to carom off the ref’s skate.

This is why I’d like to see distinctions from the NHL data between faceoff wins versus clean faceoff wins. Or perhaps even stats on which teams are good at regaining possession upon losing the faceoff, and how it affects their play in transition, in-zone defense, and breakouts. Again: language. We should be learning more not less. And we certainly shouldn’t be having this discussion reduced to being about one demographic pitted against the other, like chart huggers versus eye testers².

The blame game

Casey DeSmith definitely let in some “stinkers” but how often do those shots go in to begin with? It’s not like the defense in front of him was picture perfect. I think this game is a perfect example of when the blame game teaches us nothing. Did this game accurately reflect how Dallas tends to defend? Did this game accurately reflect how DeSmith tends to perform? Did this game accurately reflect how goals tend to occur? If the answer to all of the above is no, then there’s no reason to disproportionately assign blame.

Meandering Strays

• If you’ll indulge me for a second. As a former fight analyst of all things boxing and MMA, Lian Bichsel’s fight with Jack McBain was interesting from a mechanics standpoint. As physical as Bichsel is, we haven’t seen him drop the gloves, and when he did, it was against an outmatched opponent. McBain has had more than a few scraps in his career. Needless to say, I was shocked at how violent Bichsel’s punches are. Against a seasoned opponent, he was still able to chamber with some pretty filthy velocity. Like any hockey fighter, he didn’t actually land much (if at all), but I was afraid for McBain if any of those had connected flush. Bichsel was throwing for the ole’ Friday the 13th. Makes me wonder if some of his fitness regime doesn’t involve boxing.

• I didn’t think much of Utah’s shorthanded goal. It was an unlucky bounce that generated another unlucky bounce. That’s hockey for you. It’s nobody’s fault but the hockey gods.

• DJ Steel had a really great night…or they were having a really great night. I wouldn’t worry too much about one iffy night. But Matt Duchene definitely had a bit of brain flatulence trying to sift passes through that weren’t there.

• I promise to stop talking about Arttu Hyry, but I thought that was a slick pass at the end on the Adam Erne goal. Hyry will likely be one of the odd men out when Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz return, but it’s hard to imagine him staying out of the lineup next season.

• Utah rates high as a team that generates on the rush and on the cycle. They are one of the most complete attack teams in the league who can beat you multiple ways when the puck is on their stick. Ignore the standings and make no mistake. The Mammoth are players. No Pacific team is dying to play them.

1. I’m always totally cool with being lumped into this group, but I don’t run models or know how to code.

2. I’ve seen a lot of chart huggers show proof of PhD. I have yet to see an eye tester show proof of 20/10 vision. Just saying.