Styles Make Fights: A 2023 Western Conference Preview Between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights

Hell yes.

One of my favorite parts about this matchup is seeing lameduck commentators eat shit about how “small market” teams somehow don’t belong or that this matchup is bad for the game. Even the good guys at SDPN with Steve Dangle seemed moderately disappointed that these are the four teams in the final four. (This is not just a Canadian thing either.) To which I say: piss on that. All of it. Are we seriously promoting teams that don’t deserve it, and talking down teams that deserve better? Is this a sport or a talk show?

I want to see the best teams versus the best teams. And these are the best teams left. Who are the donks who wanted to see anything other than Van Damme vs. Bolo Yeung at the end of Bloodsport?

Since I’m being ornery, I’ll call out my fellow Stars fans too. And myself. There is, I think, a collective sigh of relief that amounts to “better Vegas than Edmonton.” And I get it because I felt the same way. But make no mistake. Whatever cracks Dallas has that can be exposed, Vegas will slip through in the long run. The Stars will just have to make sure it’s not enough.

Vegas was the superior regular season team (a team that unlike Dallas, dealt with significant injuries for extended periods), and the best team in the Western Conference, finishing with 111 points. I would also argue that no team is better primed for the step up in competition, as Edmonton was easily the toughest opponent either team has faced thus far. The Knights are the rightful favorites. However, that was then. This is now.

And right now, Dallas finally looks like they’re putting it all together. But will they?

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Offense

Vegas (like Dallas) has been more of a quality over quantity team. They’re somewhere between Minnesota and Seattle in that they have strong depth, but also some some true gamebreakers. For Vegas, it starts with Jack Eichel. When I brought up Hintz on Twitter the other day about where he’d go in a re-draft I was surprised by the amount of people showing less respect to Eichel than he deserves. Here’s the thing: while players like Marner, Kaprizov, Rantanen, and Hintz have enjoyed superior linemates throughout their career, Eichel has had no such luck. In Buffalo he started out with players like Zemgus Girgensons, Tyler Ennis, and a struggling Sam Reinhart. In his 2016 sophomore year, he “upgraded” to Reinhart with Marcus Foligno. After that it was Evander Kane and Jason Pominville. Despite that, his career scoring clip is 2.06 points per 60 at even strength. That’s tied with Hintz, and just below Rantanen’s career 2.16.

It’s not just Eichel himself but how Bruce Cassidy has made a concerted effort to take advantage of Eichel’s two-way play. Part of Vegas’ success came from exploiting Edmonton’s Nurse-Ceci pair against their top line. It’ll be interesting to see if Cassidy tries to target Esa Lindell and Colin Miller (assuming the pair sticks). Eichel is gonna be the guy everyone talks about, but Vegas’ depth is no joke. They’re not Seattle, but Ivan Barbashev and Chandler Stephenson have more points than Tyler Seguin, and both are absolute hounds on the forecheck.

The good news for Dallas is that Vegas’ third line and fourth line haven’t had much going. Kessel with Smith and Karlsson have been outshot 33 to 28 throughout the playoffs. Kolesar with Carrier and Roy are even worse in the shot impact department. That doesn’t mean they don’t deserve respect. Vegas’ fourth line will do exactly what Minnesota’s bottom six tried to do which is punch Dallas’ lights out. But if Dallas can shutdown Vegas’ top six, the series is a wrap.

Dallas’ strength at forward are no secret. The top line remains a blistering ensemble of skill, speed, size, and brains. The NHL is finally learning about Hintz (not us, and not since 2021) and they’re being reminded of Pavelski’s importance. But there’s a big old asterisk: Jason Robertson. I talked about why on the PDOPodcast with Dimitri Filipovic, whose preview you should check out now. I think the playoffs do represent a shift in the game that can wear on even the best talents. Look at Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in Toronto. But as the series wore on versus Seattle, Robertson looked like he was making the right adjustments. I don’t expect “regression” to suddenly happen though. It’s not like the competition is getting easier. But if Robertson is truly learning, Vegas might be the perfect team for him to shine against: while better than Minnesota or Seattle, they’re not as physical as the former, nor as fast as the latter. Perhaps he’ll finally be able to settle into a rhythm.

I’m not gonna talk about Wyatt Johnston because you know exactly how I feel about him, and how I’ve felt about him since June. Nor am I here to emphasize the importance of Jim Nill’s deadline additions of Max Domi and Evgeniii Dadonov who have been everything the Stars needed and then some. No, I’d like to talk about Tyler Seguin.

He’s flown under the radar throughout the playoffs. Like in the regular season, I think we’re used to seeing the “current” Seguin; a player who no longer has the speed, or the shot, and now lives in a shop of calipers and drill bits (like my dad). Here’s the thing: I don’t know that that’s true right now.

Tell me this isn’t vintage Seguin (from Game 7 versus Seattle).

Even his crossovers looked the same there. Seguin’s individual expected goal rate of 1.54 per 60 at even strength is tied with Joe Pavelski, and 14th among all playoff forwards. It’s the kind of performance that could really tilt this matchup. Don’t get it twisted: I’m not sold on his line. His trio has gone from getting outshot to breaking even. But on his own, Seguin looks like he’s finding that elixir of healing and it might be the best development of all if it’s merely the start.

A Digression: Dellandrea or Glendening?

I actually wrote a few hundred words about faceoffs before cutting it completely. So let me start over and just say this. We can probably agree that there’s value to winning faceoffs. And we can also agree that there’s value to special teams. But we can also agree that there’s value to making plays; the kind of plays that end up on a box score. Glendening may provide the former, but he provides none of the latter. Dellandrea scored 22 more points than Luke. Is one faceoff win worth a clean pass on a rush attack? The best argument for Luke might be that Kiviranta-Faksa-Glendening have better chemistry, and won’t be scored in (which is true). But the margins matter. And I can’t help but feel like this is a mistake to go with one guy who’s good at one thing, and bad at almost everything else versus the other guy who is bad at one thing, and effective at almost everything else.

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Defense

Surprisingly, Dallas has been the better defensive team despite having less depth than Vegas’ group. The big advantage for Dallas here is that the Knights don’t have a truly elite number one. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore are their best defensemen, but simply aren’t on Heiskanen’s level. The difference is that Martinez and McNabb are significantly better partners than Ryan Suter, and easily better than either one of Esa Lindell and or Colin Miller.

Not for nothing but somebody is gonna get absolutely detonated (legally) by McNabb. Let’s hope it’s not someone on the top line.

The matchup is less about the players and more about the tactics. Vegas’ defenders stay close to the net without overpursuing, which in some ways is the perfect counter to DeBoer’s emphasis on behind-the-net play. (Courtesy of Jack Han.)

Like Minnesota, Vegas doesn’t allow a lot of rebounds as a result. So far they’ve allowed 18 rebound shots against, which is top five in the playoffs. Need some perspective? Seattle allowed 45. Players like Hintz and Johnston who can beat opponents one on one are gonna be the ones to watch. (This is also why I think Seguin could be a darkhorse for series MVP; that is, if his speed is back.) Same with Pavelski, who can just set up in front and do what he does. Still, it should be a tough, tactical battle for the forwards in victory green.

What about Dallas’ defenders?

Under Cassidy, Vegas doesn’t have some shot-out-of-a-canon forecheck like Seattle. Mark Stone is one of their top forwards; of course they don’t play that game. To me the most interesting part of their attack won’t be how Dallas keeps Vegas from retrieving the puck, but how Dallas defends when they do. The Knights do a lot of things differently under Cassidy; the main one being their ability attack low and high. (Courtesy of Jack Han.)

It’s been awhile since Dallas has seen something like a high cycle. This series will be a strong test for Dallas’ new(ish) look blueline. From physicality (Minnesota) and pressure (Seattle) to something approaching…well, prudence (Vegas). The resulting strategy under Cassidy gives the Knights a well-rounded attack. They’re more likely to punish teams off their cycle, but they can hit you off the rush too.

This is another series where a player like Harley, specifically Harley getting a few more minutes, will be key. Slower zone exits seemed to kill Toronto against Florida, and that’s one thing Harley doesn’t lack. Outside of that, it’s Miro versus the world.

A Digression: Jack Eichel vs. Miro Heiskanen

I’ve only ever seen two players manage to shake Heiskanen (relatively) consistently: one is Nathan MacKinnon. The other one is Eichel. On the surface, Eichel presents nothing out of the ordinary in proportion to what Heiskanen is used to. Eichel is not faster than McDavid and he’s not stronger than MacKinnon or Kaprizov. But he has an unusually long stick, which is atypical for forwards in general, and potentially one of the reasons (at least in my recall) why Miro struggled against him in spots: one of his go-to defensive moves is his sweeping poke check, which Eichel’s long stick negates.

It’s not just about unusual gear though. Unlike MacKinnon, who looks like someone is injecting Red Bell into his body with a caulking gun, Eichel’s speed is subtle and effortless thanks to his edgework. He’s already a big guy as is, but his casual speed and stout positioning make him one of the toughest forwards for any defender. That doesn’t mean I think Eichel will win the heads up matchup. Nor does it mean Miro won’t adjust. Just that this one-on-one should be fascinating, and far more difficult than Stars fans might expect (that hole in Miro’s face probably doesn’t help). There’s a reason Eichel went behind McDavid, and would likely still go behind McDavid in a re-draft, despite how absurd that draft was.

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Bottom Line

There are still question marks about both teams. Yes, Jake Oettinger has been great in bounceback games, but why is he needing to bounceback so often? I don’t think Oettinger looks bad at all. If anything, his numbers should start to normalize. But it’s a worthwhile concern, and same goes for Robertson. And Lindell for that matter (I think it’s fair to call him out; after all, he only makes $2 million less than Robo.)

However, Vegas has their own problems. They’re the second worst team in the playoffs on the PK (with an expected goals against rank not all that dissimilar from their actual goals against), which means Dallas will be licking their damn chops. In the playoffs, they have the highest shooting percentage and the sixth-ranked save percentage. In other words, the hockey gods have been kind to them. The hockey gods usually aren’t kind for long.

I’m not picking Dallas because I’m a fan. I’m picking Dallas because they fit the exhaustive profile of a real contender, and that was before the deadline additions and emergence of Harley. Vegas does not.

Dallas in six.