Substack Mailbag: 2023 Dallas Stars Offseason Pre-Draft Edition. (Plus a poll count on Dimitri's Erik Karlsson trade proposal and book recommendations!)
There's a lot to calm to talk about before the storm.
Before we get to the questions, I wanted to say two quick things:
One, the Stack is going nowhere, and thank you for the pledges.
Two, if you missed Dimitri Filipovic’s trade proposal for Erik Karlsson, it was a doozy.
I decided to tally up the Yes’ and No’s. Here’s the final count.
Yes: 29 (12 hell yes’, and 17 simply yes)
No: 32 (11 hell no’s, and 21 simply no)
13 people wasted my time with measured and logical responses. I’m not here for anything measured or logical. I’m here because I think Karlsson would win Dallas a cup. Because Karlsson just scored over 100 points, I think people forget how ELITE he’s been for almost his entire time as an NHL player.
So yes, he got hot last year. But he’s been hot his entire career. Literally and figuratively. Plus his comparables have aged well.
Whatever you think of the package in Dimitri’s proposal, the cap, or his term, Karlsson remains an elite player. How long he can continue to be that remains a question mark, but I would argue that Karlsson on this team for Pavelski’s last ride is better than neither Karlsson, nor Pavelski on whatever mystery box Dallas has in store for the future. I say that as a huge fan of Dallas’ truly standout prospect pool. Onto the questions!
Disclaimer: I answer these questions before some of today’s moves.
Would signing Jabba the Hutt as a dependable #3 goaltender solve this issue for the Stars?
—@BrandonEffDub
I would have said yes until The Michigan was invented.
Does Travis Konecny or Tyler Toffoli make more sense than Alex Debrincat? Or is that something the Stars would actually consider?
No. Yes. And yes!
This is a great question that illustrates the difference between production and performance. It’s easy to weigh a more productive player versus a less productive player, and conclude that the more productive player will add more points, and thus, more wins. But that’s not how hockey works. It might be how contracts work. And plus/minus. But it’s not how territory is won, it’s not how systems are maximized, and it’s not how chemistry is manufactured.
Until the 2021-2022 season, Ivan Barbashev had never scored more than 30 points in a season. Yet he was a wrecking ball for Vegas. That’s the kind of player Dallas needs. That doesn’t mean I think DeBrincat is a lesser player. Just that I think someone like Toffoli, who is well-rounded territorial forward, absolutely makes sense.
Konecny is more of a wild-card. He’s a lot like Max Domi if Domi were a shooter rather than a playmaker. His Doesn’t-Give-a-Fuck-Meter is super high, and he just scored 30 goals (without much help no less) on a sweetheart $5.5M contract for the next two years. Both do come with risks, granted. Konecny isn’t a strong career playdriver, and Toffoli hasn’t been the strongest finisher lately (this past season notwithstanding).
The obstacle with these players is that Dallas is probably doing what they did last time: finding someone for Marchment and Seguin. Domi and Dadonov worked because they were a package deal to help two lines. If Dallas brings in Toffoli, and nothing else, how much better is this team really? So while I think Toffoli and Konecny make more sense in a vacuum, I’m not sure they put the Stars over the top.
P.S. If you’re not listening to Taylor and Jordan’s podcast, you should fix that.
Non-hockey book suggestion?
I’ll start with the only category I know: non-fiction.
The Dawn of Everything by David Graeber and David Wengrow (2021)
I’m not a history buff. I only recently thrust myself into the dusty genre because an old colleague of mine at Bloody Elbow became a power lifter, and a historian, even writing his own kickass book. I say that to say this: you don’t have to love history to enjoy this book. For one, it’s rare to get a bird’s eye view into how wrong academic perceptions can be. Despite the sound of it, the title is quite descriptive. Who or what enlightened The Enlightenment? This anthropological odyssey is about nothing less than how our social understanding of liberty, and mutual aid came to be. The kicker is that the Native American perspective is not lost in the story of how the psychology of civilization and culture was birthed. Not only do we meet the Indigenous version of Thomas Paine (although a better comparison would be Oliver Wendell Holmes), but you come to understand how complex hunter-gatherer groups actually were. The end result illustrates a broader but more defined version of humanity: one that’s more interesting than the dual between “noblemen versus savages” or “pre-civilized versus civilized societies.” TL;DR This book will knock you on your ass. Not for nothing, but Graeber (RIP) also wrote the excellent Bullshit Jobs (2018.)
Now for my fiction recommendation.
Blindsight by Peter Watts (2006)
So here’s the thing. I don’t like this book. At all. It’s a sci-fi book about first contact, which seems simple enough. But the subject matter is dense, the prose is dry, and yet the story centers around an eclectic group of characters that include a cyborg, a linguist with dissociative identity disorder, and a vampire. It makes for a jarring read that honestly had me stop reading 100 pages in. As a result, I haven’t even finished it. But I don’t have to like something to respect it. I can tell I’m reading something truly singular not only within the genre, but within fiction as a whole. It’s a little like listening to Animals as Leaders; nothing about the rhythm appeals to me, but I know the sound of a talented artist when I hear one.
If the name of the author sounds vaguely familiar, he wrote the internet famous The Things: a short story about The Thing told from The Thing’s perspective.
Which pending UFA is likely to get the biggest overpay among this year’s class? Meanwhile, who is a UFA that flies under the radar as a value signing? Also, do the cap-strapped Stars dip their toe in the UFA waters at all?
The amount of overpays will be too many to count. And there will be different versions. You’ll get the guy who is good enough to be overpaid but still gets overpaid, like Dimitry Orlov. You’ll get the guy who isn’t good enough to be overpaid but that doesn’t matter because he just won a cup, like Ivan Barbashev. Matt Dumba might be the sneakiest albatross of them all. I don’t think teams are prepared for how bad he’s gonna be. (Full disclosure: I’ve always liked him, and I still like him even after what he did to Pavelski. I think in his prime he played a really unique hybrid style. But for whatever reason, his game just completely fell off a couple of years ago and I’m not sure why.)
On the second question, I’m not gonna repeat what I wrote here, but I’ll say it again: Connor MF’ing Brown. Do you want Barbashev without paying Barbashev prices? This is your man.
Also, Carson Soucy is underrated AF. Probably not as underrated after showing out in Seattle against two elite teams in Colorado and Dallas, but a dude that will deserve more money than he’ll end up getting.
How about UFA Clifton from Boston as a less expensive puck moving RD.
Clifton is one of those classic “under the radar” guys. Kind of like Anton Stralman back in the day. He does a lot very well (Pavelski says hello in the deflection rate department).
And he can defend. Against even the best.
But I think the issue with Clifton is that you basically sign Nils Lnudkvist’s death warrant. Beyond that, if Dallas gets lost in this Get Big or Die Trying groupthink, then Clifton is a non-starter due to his size. No matter how good a player is, how good a player is perceived can be more influential on the minutes they get. Clifton was a healthy scratch in the Florida series, so there’s no guarantee he’d be any different than Colin Miller — another player with quality metrics who doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
How important is Neil Graham to the Dallas Stars and what are they doing to keep him?
Very important. I think Dallas sees Graham as DeBoer’s successor. If you ever listen to him in interviews, he’s a sharp guy who speaks a modern tongue. This is a guy who got his “start” as the coach and GM (credit the always fantastic Stephen Meserve) of his own team. I also like what they did with Thomas Harley this year, letting him focus on one aspect of his game this year. It’s rare that any team has a plan for a prospect other than Go Play And Stuff.
Instead of pure question, I have a cap exercise for you: Carolina is seemingly moving away from Pacioretty and we know how Nill loves this kind of players. Fit him in the lineup with realistic contract while also improving the D.
Right now Dallas has $5,144, 671 in cap. After signing Ty Dellandrea to a $1.5M contract for two years, that leaves them with $3,595,671 with four more spots to fill.
First things’ first.
Buy out Suter. Cap update: $6,462,338.
Trade Radek Faksa and a 2024 6th rounder for Detroit’s Dominik Kubalik. Cap update: $7,212,338.
Dallas trades Jani Hakanpaa, Riley Damiani, and a 2024 2nd round pick for Calgary’s Chris Tanev. Cap update: $4,212,338.
Dallas signs Carson Soucy for his projected (per Evolving-Hockey) for $2,587,000 AAV through three years. Cap update: $1,625,338.
Sign Max Pacioretty for a $1M contract with a guarantee of performance bonuses.
Boom.
Now Dallas has something like:
Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski
Pacioretty-Seguin-Stankoven
Benn-Johnston-Dadonov
Marchment-Dellandrea-Kubalik
Heiskanen-Tanev
Lindell-Lundkvist
Harley-Soucy
Marchment on the 4th line looks awkward, but that also looks like a really good 4th line. In both cases, Dellandrea and Stankoven get some veteran help. Heiskanen gets a legit partner, as does Harley. Soucy is the most underrated blueliner out there, and plays a scrappy game to boot. That looks legit. If Lundkvist can’t hack it, you have Miller below, and Bichsel next year. Either way that’s a better roster than last year, and one of the most dangerous rosters in all of hockey.
And yes, I know I’m probably missing some bullshit cap restriction, or performance bonus or whatever, but this was written offhand.
Quick thoughts on the following:
Tom Wilson
Nick Schmaltz
Offer sheeting Swayman (credit @DimFilipovic
Caamano, Tufte, Studenic, Blumel, Damiani, Karlstrom, Back, etc. battling for depth.
Karlsson Yes or No?
Wilson: entering his post-Cup Lucic phase. Schmaltz: one of the most underrated centers in all of hockey, and somehow never smiles. No to that offer sheet. Don’t care about that group and as for Karlsson…Yes. And Yes.
Assuming Suter isn’t bought out this summer what would your path to revamping the defense for 23-24 look like?
While the exercise with JK was fun, it’s not bold enough. Listen, I don’t like Suter’s place on this roster — I especially don’t like his presence on the second power play unit because it’s just flat out stupid — but he still has some use. However, he’s not the problem. I don’t think people realize how bad this is. Let me post it again.
Dallas’ second unit of Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa was murdered. For whatever reason, we call defensemen who have no offensive ability whatsoever and are big “shutdown” defenders because we can’t fathom the alternative.
If Dallas wanted to, they could make an Karlsson trade work. I say “wanted” not for the purpose of highlighting what is logical, but to highlight the fact that the flat cap is a bigger obstacle for teams that aren’t bold enough. What do they always say about not being able to find a number one defender on the market, or being able to trade for number one center? Vegas did both. I’m sick of hearing hearing others regurgitate what a bunch of lameduck GMs keep shoveling to the public. If you’ve ever seen an NBA trade, then you know this kind of business is not impossible or unheard of. It’s just impossible and unheard of because hockey has manufactured it that way.
I honestly think one way to revamp the blueline is to fit Harley into the top four. Bump Lindell down to the third pair. Suter-Heiskanen, Harley-Tanev, Lindell-Hakanpaa. That’s a good group, and all you had to do was change the minutes.
Damn I needed that mailbag!