Substack Mailbag: The Dallas Stars 2023 Random Questions Edition
You asked: I'm answering.
You’ll be hearing from me a lot. Next week I’ll be writing about the Dallas Stars’ 2023 offseason at D Magazine. Somewhere in there I’ll talk about the forwards for DBD. But I don’t want to ignore the Stack. Ever.
I’ve received a few pledges for this place, which means a lot. I never had a vision for the Stack beyond the fact that I don’t get tired of writing Stars stuff. But also, I feel privileged with my readers. You might have seen Mike’s Twitter thread about how I got the gig at D Magazine.
I could write a whole piece on why Mike is such a critical piece of my writing, but since there’s a ton to get to I want to focus on the readers: part of what makes my time so well spent communicating with you is that I appreciate the demand for something authentic. That’s what D Magazine, and DBD are all about: authentic coverage. If I ever write anything like the unhinged Kyle Dubas apologia over in Toronto, you have my permission to throw me in a Jigsaw trap; and not those bullshit ones that were easy to get out of—I’m talking about that no way out Donnie Wahlberg shit.
So thank you. Each and every one of you. You keep reading, and I’ll keep writing. Now: on to the (really good, by the way) questions!
How likely is it that one of Bourque or Stankoven make the team out of Camp?
Logan Stankoven is a lock.
As for Mavrik Bourque, you know where I stand. I’m higher on Bourque than anyone. But playmakers always have it tougher than shooters. They need to be accommodated. Just look at guys like Evgenii Dadonov and Max Domi. Are they good? Hell yea. Would a lot of fans want them back? Of course. Yet how many teams did they bounce around? How often have they fallen short of expectations?
This tends to happen with non-elite playmakers precisely because their games don’t lend themselves to easy analysis, or simple fits. I do think Bourque’s ability to make plays in traffic will get him noticed. He may not be as intense or fast as Domi, but Bourque gets in the dirty areas (which is ironic since Domi has always been more of a perimeter playmaker despite his intensity.)
My personal opinion is that long term: Hintz and Bourque could be the one-two punch of the future.
Let's say Dallas is cursed by an ancient mummy and can't acquire a defenseman via trade or UFA. HOWEVER, you have full freedom (contract status/stipulations be damned) to do trade/buyout/bury whoever you want on the blue line. What do your defensive pairings look like?
Miro Heiskanen - Damon Severson
Thomas Harley - Scott Mayfield
Carson Soucy - Nils Lundkvist
This is not near as hard as it looks; armchair wise. Severson, Mayfield, and Soucy are all free agents. I’ll have more on this later.
Evaluate Domi’s performance, especially with eye towards would he be worth re-signing just off his play, if so for how much, and would that get in the way of a prospect coming in. Fwiw, I thought he was ok, but nothing special, and didn’t seem to lift Seguin and Mush at all.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Domi. He plays hard, has some real vision, and I think on the right line he’s a 70-point center. Per Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections, his next contract is three years at $4.6 million per. That’s great if he’s a 70-point center. Could he be that in Dallas?
No. Which is what makes the hype around him confusing for me.
His 13 points in 19 games would put him on a 55-point pace through 82 regular season games. But ask yourself this: did Domi look like a 55-point forward in those 19 games or did he seem like he just got hot? I know it sounds like I don’t love Domi, but here’s the deal: Dallas doesn’t have the players to maximize him. If he’s on a line with Marchment and Seguin, how confident are you that they develop into a legit group?
I don’t want to get things twisted, though: Domi is absolutely worth re-signing. The problem is that Dallas’ blueline needs help, and Domi’s contract would be a huge roadblock. Even if Nill were to execute some Cap Fu, the blueline needs more than just one random UFA added to the roster; it also needs to consider how it can figure Harley into the top four if possible, or how they re-imagine the second pair, which was Dallas’ weakest link in the playoffs. Domi not only doesn’t fix that, but he kind of adds it given his constant missed assignments (which got a little better with Dellandrea).
Two questions. Who would you like to see Dallas take with their draft picks this year? I have my own list. And 2) who would you like to see Dallas target to play with miro? Personally I would love to try and pry jokiharju from buffalo. He’s cheap and can log the minutes
Do Stars fans want the next Jason Robertson? Then you’ve come to the right place! Stars fans, I present to you Andrew MF’ing Cristall, 5’9/167 lbs/LW (Pronman currently has him ranked at #68):
However, don’t hold your breath. With the recent picks of Bourque, Stankoven, Johnston, and even Stranges, Dallas probably has had enough of these smaller talented forwards. A guy like Cristall who is even smaller, and slower, I just can’t see Dallas’ scouts having the appetite for. However, Dallas better damn sure be looking at left wing. With Marchment already crashing and burning into the first year of his contract, the Stars will need left wings, and they don’t have any. As far as left wing Plan B’s, I like Juraj Pekarcik and Koehn Ziemmer as potential alternates at 61.
I’m not a huge fan of Andrew Gibson, but that screams a Dallas pick since I don’t believe they’re done shotgun drafting defensemen. For those who are reading that name and thinking “I don’t follow the draft: speak to me in plain English” Gibson is basically a right handed Grushnikov: some potential offense, but he’s a modern shutdown defender. I don’t love it. But I wouldn’t hate it.
Second question: no thanks.
(And yes, I watch a lot of Buffalo so I’ve seen him; I also liked him over Oettinger so you know…don’t listen to me either.)
If you had to pick one feasible trade target for the blue line, who would it be and what would you give for him?
In terms of feasible trade target, I think Chris Tanev is a good option. He has one year left on a Calgary squad that’s in a tough spot as is. Plus they’re extremely deep on the backend with Oliver Kylington coming back. He’s perfect for what Dallas needs whether it’s a quality right-shot defender next to Miro, or a quality right shot defender next to Harley.
Klingberg reunion at a much smaller aav?
I’m not sure. It hits all the right notes: Klingberg gets to reunite with Lindell, who clearly needed Klingberg more than vice versa (who would have though that the guy who can make plays in all three zones is better off without the guy who can only play in one zone and not the other way around?). He’s a known commodity, and it’s not like he looked bad on Minnesota outside of that one Hintz play where he got burned; which Hintz does to everyone.
My only issue with that move is that it’s worth remembering that Lindell-Klingberg was already hitting a wall.
Like a band getting back together, some songs may remind you what they used to be, but most songs will remind you of what they’re becoming — less and less relevant. (Not Chris Barnes level non-relevance, but close.)
He is our best trade piece right now.
Probably Ty Dellandrea. He’s a player GMs covet: talented, but also hard working. Except now he has quality NHL experience to add to his resume. If Dallas packaged him in a trade for someone else (say, Hakanpaa), Nill could have any depth piece he wanted. I’m not saying that’s a good idea or anything: just that I think Dellandrea is seen as a quality young forward in the NHL, and even Stars fans take him for granted a little. He was a healthy scratch at times in the playoffs, and considered a fifth wheel alongside Benn and Johnston once Dadonov came in even though his tracking data made it clear he was anything but a passenger.
I'm noticing a distinct lack of "How to Seal Ryan Suter Away in the Planet's Core" on this list.
I find the Suter discourse fascinating because he had largely silenced his critics in the playoffs…until the Vegas series. Although I don’t like the implication either when you think about it: was Suter just sandbagging the regular season?
Given how bad things got in D in the playoffs do you think either Bourque or Stankoven would be in play for the right D move(s) assuming roster space can be made? Do you think the Stars should entertain moving one of them to improve the defense?
-HammoudiIsmael
Not with Dadonov and Domi out of the picture…for now. One thing the Kyle Dubas situation has made clear is just how aloof the heirarachy can be. Gaglardi may not be the GM, but no way he’s signing off on any trade involving Stankoven; even if it made the team objectively better. I think Dadonov and Domi made strong cases to come back, but not so strong as to be undeniable.
I’m open to trading one of them to improve the defense, but I also think Dallas’ forward depth is gonna be back to square one: without Dadonov and Domi, Stankoven alone won’t be enough to upgrade the middle six. Is Marchment a bust? What are the chances Benn and Seguin keep trending up? “Probably” and “not good” are the answers to those two questions. This won’t be a darkest hour kind of thing. Johnston and Dellandrea’s improvement will be critical here, but they’re gonna be working against quite the tide.
How do you get value out of Mason Marchment?
I feel like Marchment gets a bad rap at times. I saw people criticize him for missing an empty net in Game 6 but forgive me: who gives a shit?
A ton of players missed empty nets in that Vegas series. When I defended him against being a healthy scratch it wasn’t because I thought Marchment was good but because I didn’t think he was the worst. I even said so on Twitter: the irony of taking a bad player out to make way for a worse player. (Which is especially funny since Marchment was their “best” player, analytically speaking, that night.)
The thing with Marchment is that he does a lot of little things that go unappreciated. But also, I just don’t think Marchment and Seguin compliment each other. I’d be interested in seeing Marchment next to Hintz. “Are you crazy?!” Of course I am. But also, the Anything-But-The-Goddamn-Avengers-Line will be a thing for only one more year. Dallas might want to get ahead of what Robertson and Hintz will look like post-Pavelski.
Not for nothing: don’t let Marchment’s point totals fool you either. He had 12 goals on the season. His shot quality was good enough to earn him 20 (or 20.12 ixG per Evolving-Hockey). He’s due, even if it doesn’t seem like it.
DeBeor mentioned in his exit interview w media that he wants to work on 3v3 Ot this summer since they left a lot of points on the table during the regular season. How do you think they should change their 3v3 (and 5v5 since playoffs sucked too) to win more after regulation?
It’s a nice gesture, but dare I say: who cares? Dallas’ overtime problems are a function of not having another blueline quarterback. If the blueline doesn’t get better, neither will overtime, and if it does get better without blueline help, it’ll get better by accident.
Buyout Suter and Lindell. Take the additional $3.3mm cap space and use it. What are your pairings
Spicy!
For those that don’t know, both their contracts are buyout friendly. Buying both out with “inject” $6 million back into the cap for the next two years. That’s $13 million total to work with.
Miro Heiskanen - Damon Severson
Thomas Harley - Scott Mayfield
Joel Hanley - Nils Lundkvist
Dallas really needs to stop looking at Heiskanen as one of their “offensive guys.” That’s why I like a playdriver next to Miro, which Severson very much is. Mayfield, a strong shutdown defender would be ideal next to Harley, who now has a top four role. Bring Hanley back to babysit Lundkvist and voila! The beauty is in that top four.
I’m not advocating the move, because it doesn’t factor in long term cap implications. But if I’m going for it next year, and I just want to create a great top four, that’s it.
Are there any D prospects you see that could make the jump to NHL next season? Or are they all still a year or two away?
Nope. Lian Bichsel is obviously the next big thing, and I’ve talked a lot about him. But Sean Shapiro was talking to Dimitri Filipovic on the PDOPodcast the other day about how Jim Montgomery loved Tomas Harley. However, Nill had to reign him in due to cap constraints. There’s probably something similar at work here. Even if Bichsel were ready, would he be enough of an impact player to offset the future cap complications? Probably not. So you won’t see any prospects for awhile. They have a big enough problem as is with the Lundkvist situation.
What do you value higher? Offensive or defensive capability.
I won’t cop out and say “offensive capability in forwards, defensive capability in defensemen” because I’m not using some ChaptGPT bullshit to write this. So I’ll go with ‘offensive capability’, straight up.
Offense is just harder to create and it requires skills that are harder to find. Goals are still incredibly random in hockey. Being able to make the game less random isn’t just a skill; it’s a gravity. The passive side of that argument is that I think defensive capability, beyond being more teachable, can also be fortified with a strong system. Carolina has been a great example of this in recent years. Jani Hakanpaa looked like an absolute stud during his brief tenure with the Hurricanes. It was in limited minutes, granted, but still: now he’s practically a pariah in Dallas. Point is, defensive warts can be hidden, whereas offensive skill will always stand alone.
What is Dellandrea's future with the stars?
Before this season, I proposed a Ty Dellandrea for Nils Lundkvist trade. Beyond just the egg on my face as someone who’s always viewed him as expendable, I think Dellandrea’s future with the Stars is set in stone: he’s a valuable piece moving forward not because he’s a gamebreaker but because he’s flexible. He can play however up, or however far down the lineup the team needs. He can play on the PK, and he can occasionally provide a spark (not always for better, but still).
Seal Ryan Suter Away in the Planet's Core. (added to the list)
Might be the spiciest mailbag I’ve ever read 😂 I love it