TFTC: Revisiting the Dallas Stars late-period collapses versus Colorado and Calgary

A misblast from the recent past in today's Tales From the Clipped.

I'm gonna start with a brief rant, so if you're not interested then skip to the part where we talk hockey.

It's not really a rant so much as a point of contention when it comes to "analytics." Often the refrain from trying to glean insight into a chart or a bar graph is that hockey isn't played on a spreadsheet, or I get the old cliche about "lies, damned lies and statistics." There is, of course, some truth to all of the above. Looking at data at a glance will only give us so much insight. But I feel like the same people arguing this point assume that video and what we see is better.

However, video is no different than a histogram: any piece of information can be leveraged toward more, or less understanding. Facts and truth are not synonymous. It's a fact that Nils Lundkvist gets less shifts as the games get tighter, and doesn't have the trust of Dallas' coaches. Does that tell me that truth about who he is, or whether said trust or lackthereof is valid? Nope.

I mention this because it's worth keeping in mind as we look at Dallas' recent third period collapses. These clips will tell us nothing more than the facts about what happened versus Colorado and Calgary. They won't necessarily tell us the truth about whether Dallas is above or below average with a lead versus the rest of the league, and they won't tell us the truth about the players worth blaming. Might they offer clues?

That's what today is for. The reason for the rambling is that I want to be clear about what we can learn from revisiting these moments: only how those moments happened. Some will speak to broader trends and player analysis, but this won’t be analysis on whether Dallas can’t hold a lead compared to their peers. That’s what numbers are for. With that out the way, what happened?

Below I’ll be looking at goals 4 and 5 against Colorado (November 18) and goals 3, 4, 5, and 6 against Calgary (November 24).