The 2025 Playoff Sober Report: Dallas' forwards don't need goals. They need territory.

Another autopsy about the same problem.

Last year, I wrote three pieces that were surprisingly popular, which is odd because I didn’t think there was anything fresh about the writing. So…back by…popular demand? This year we’ll be following the same formula, doing autopsy reports for offense, defense, and goaltending/special teams.

For the most part, words like Corsi, and xG have become part of hockey nomenclature. Sure, it took the chart huggers getting jobs by NHL organizations in 2014 despite assurances by insiders (sorry for calling you out Bob) that hockey orgs were “so far beyond Corsi” to do it, but I think we can safely say we’ve finally arrived as a culture with a smarter fandom about the concept of value added.

Still, arriving is not the same as embracing. Here, I’m not talking about specific people so much as a specific understanding. We see a team with a lot of goals like Dallas, and say “that’s an elite offense!” And they certainly can be. But goals are a lot more random than shots. That means offense can be a little random too. There’s a crucial difference between the outcomes of offense, and its operations. This is why I devoted so much discussion last year to the contrast between Dallas and Florida. The Panthers were not an elite finishing team. But boy do they score goals when it counts. And that’s because their offensive operation is second to none.

Offense — and apologies if this is a monologue I’ve given a thousand times — is not just about goals. It’s about drawing penalties. It’s about a player’s off-puck movement. Their wallwork. Their transitions. How many times do we see great offensive zone shifts fail to show up on the boxscore only for the next group of players directly benefit from hemming opponent’s in the zone? This is why teams like Florida and Vegas can score when it matters: because they’re always prepared to score. It’s the old adage in jiu jitsu: position before submission.

And this is where the Stars have struggled. What was true last year was true this year as well. Versus the Oilers, only two players — Jason Robertson and Tyler Seguin — were able to score at even-strength across five games. Does that have an explanation? Yes. And with big neon letters that have nothing to do with being soft.