The Calder seems out of reach for Logan Stankoven. To fret or not to fret?
Not to fret. But...
When we dug deep into projecting how Logan Stankoven might do against his peers, Stars Stack readers were ahead of the curve when I polled readers, with Macklin Celebrini getting 74 percent of the votes, 11 percent to Matvei Michkov, followed by a tie between Dustin Wolf, Lane Hutson, and of course, Stankoven.
Right now, Michkov is the clear-cut leader with 27 points. However, Celebrini could easily be right there with him if he hadn’t missed 12 games. As is, even with his games-played handicap, he has as many points as Stankoven. Lane Hutson, the diminutive Montreal defender, has 19 points, while the only fresh face to show up tied with Stankoven is Islander forward Maxim Tsyplakov. Wolf, meanwhile, has a decent .909 save percentage, but is single-handedly making Calgary look like an okay team.
Unless Stankoven pulls a rabbit out of his hat, the Calder is all but lost. He’s on track to score 52 points. Does that number look familiar? Oh right.
Out of that 48-player cohort, the average was 52 points. As in, the average 20-year old with a similar xGAR per 60 (in this case, between .556 and 1.4 Goals Above Replacement) had a follow-up season of 52 points, on average.
No, don’t ask me for the lotto numbers just because I tripped over the right fancy stat rock. (There was, after all, this article too.)
If you’re a hockey fan in general, this should be exciting. Michkov and a healthy Celebrini are on track to smash the Calder average for a forward winner — typically 63 points — by a yardstick. Hutson and Wolf will have strong claims too. More talent = more fun. As for Stankoven, what’s the fuss? For a rookie, 52 points is excellent. Recall the names of his cohort: Jamie Benn, Charlie Coyle, Brandon Saad, Auston Matthews, Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar, Filip Forsberg, Ivan Barbashev, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mathew Barzal.
Rookie seasons are a mess. Not only is there the acclimation of the player, but also their usage, teammates, competition, etc. And that’s what today is all about. Is there something making Stankoven’s rookie year something of a mess? Or are his point totals perfectly justified? Is a player with flaws we’ve glossed over in the broad excitement of having a Calder candidate?