The Kids Are More Than Alright. They're Dangerous.
Dallas' Young Guns Would Make Emilio Estevez and Lou Diamond Phillips proud.
Can we retire “the kids are alright”? I’m sorry but you don’t get to use it for Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen and in the same breath use it for Radek Faksa, Jamie Oleksiak, Julius Honka, and Jyrki Jokipakka (don’t laugh - we thought he was good!). Maybe we should retire my complaints about it instead. If we did that, I would have nothing to write. But today I want to talk about these kids. Because these kids are alright.
Let’s start with Nils Lundkvist. I have to admit I was a little pissed at Jason Robertson for tipping that puck in because I’d argue it would have gone in anyways. Why is this in any way relevant? Some of us - well, me - are petty, and there’s more envy from the team (in this case New York) that traded him if he scores goals instead of assists.
The great thing about Baby Nil, which I may or may not run with (don’t @ me - I’m tired of not giving you guys posts on this stack so I’m using my entire morning to give you content), is that his shot is elite. BUT…he’s more of a playmaker, which we saw against Boston.
In any other universe he has an assist, but this is the universe with Faksa as your shooting option.
It’s fun to talk about Lundkvist because Saturday may or may not punctuate Baby Nil’s revenge tour on the team that traded him. I want to revisit New York’s logic because so far, the best argument to keeping Baby Nil out of the Madison Square Garden manger was that they couldn’t move Jacob Trouba’s $8 million contract, and Braden Schneider was better, according to Gerard Gallant.
Why? Because he’s a couple of inches taller and can throw chingasos? Right now, New York’s expected goals percentage with Schneider on the ice is 42 percent. Without him, their xG percentage sky rockets to 57 percent. Speaking of, Lundkvist has more points than Trouba and Schneider combined…for $8 million less. But I’ll step away from the petty cliff and say that I do think Schneider is gonna be good. He’s a year younger than Lundkvist, so it’s easy to see why NYR wanted to keep Schneider. But I’m just blown away by Lundkvist’s overall game. Yes, there’s a lot of flash. But there’s also a lot of steadiness. He doesn’t cheat on his offensive routes. A lot of his activations seem to happen when there’s open ice; he’s not trying to beat more than one forechecker or overextend. I hesitate to say it but he looks like the Blade to Klingberg’s Stephen Dorff…all of his strengths, none of his weaknesses. I know. It’s early, but still. And I know. But I like to think of Stephen Dorff playing himself in that movie rather than Deacon Frost.
You already know my thoughts on Wyatt Johnston. And if you haven’t read Sean’s piece at D on why and how Dallas rolled out the red carpet for him, you should. He’s a triple threat offensively, between his ability to shoot, pass, and enter the zone. But I’ve been relatively quiet on Ty Dellandrea.
First off, I’ve had good things to say about him since 2018. In fact, let me quote myself from 2018.
Dellandrea isn’t a dazzling player. His puck handling is good but not great. He’s not incredibly creative, and his shot doesn’t tattoo the targets. However, he keeps it simple enough to be highly effective. The truth is, there is still creativity involved in simple plays — and that’s where Dellandrea stands out. Turning a small chip into an adroit pass, putting himself in prime position for rebounds, identifying the release points with footwork, and pivoting toward high danger areas keeps the center from Toronto an intriguing pick for teams in need of a straight forward, tools-y center who can log tough minutes.
Granted, he’s been quite creative, but I think my impressions of him (a two-way threat rather than a two-way player) still hold true. If I “soured” on him, it’s because the previous coaching regime had him on energy lines playing a grinder’s style. He was throwing his weight around (which he did to great effect last night) like that was his only assignment: “key kid, you’re not here to score, you’re here to start some shit. Got it?”
That’s not a real conversation and I’m not an insider so don’t quote me on that, but his game stood out in a bad way in his previous stint. When he struggled early on in Cedar Park, it was easy to write him off given Johnston, Bourque, and Stankoven’s pedigree, hype, and ability to play center (which Dellandrea has been throughout his career). But man has he owned it. He’s like a prizefighter out there: pressuring opponents with the sweet science. He’s physical, but he’s smart. He’s creative, but he’s diligent. And it’s made for one of Dallas’ most confident players. It’s very clear Pete DeBoer trusts him.
There is an asterisk on Dellandrea. Statistically, he’s not grading out the way he looks. Normally I wouldn’t post any data on a player after such a small sample size.
Then why did you do that for Lundkvist and Schneider?!?
Go away Rangers fan.
Normally I wouldn’t post any data just a handful of games into the season but I do think this one is illustrative in Delllandrea’s favor despite how poor it looks.
With Dellandrea on the ice, the Stars are 14 percentage points more likely to allow a goal. BUT…notice where the shots are happening: mostly away from the middle of the ice. The real anchor here is Benn. With Benn on the ice, the Stars are at an even worse disadvantage - 20 percent more likely to be scored on with Benn on the ice than without. The line of Benn-Johnston-Dellandrea are by the worst trio with an expected goals share of 40.5 percent. Again, it’s early. This isn’t about what our eyes are seeing versus what the stats are saying: this is about early patterns worth tracking. Nothing more, nothing less.
Speaking of dangerous kids, Stankoven looks pretty good
Lastly: I’ll be doing manual tracking of zone entries and zone exits from here on out, using the same broad rules as Corey Sznajder. I really want you guys to read, follow, and spread the word about the work we do at D Magazine, so doing this feels like another way of making our coverage (and my analysis) even better.
Outside of a game or so Benn looks pretty poor.