How do we define NHL readiness?
What makes a prospect ready to be an everyday NHLer? Let’s start with what we know it’s not. The definition of NHL ready is not “well, whenever they put on an NHL uniform.” Not only is that definition meaningless and lazy, but we can easily identify its shortcomings. Lest we forget, it was a whopping three years ago when Thomas Harley made his Dallas Stars debut. Was he NHL-ready? No. Conversely, Logan Stankoven was ready before he even put on a victory green uniform.
If we know what it’s not, then how do we come to define what it is? You’re asking the wrong guy. But unlike the last time we were here, I propose we at least try. While we’re not working towards a science of prospect theory, we can at least assemble our own language towards it. Feel free to leave a comment with your own thoughts and ideas. Here’s what I consider three core markers for what makes a prospect ready to play in the NHL.
Consistent performance in keeping with a player’s signature skills
Consistent impact in keeping with a player’s signature skills
Development momentum of a player’s signature skills
Consistent performance refers to the climate of the player’s identity. Hockey is random. The bounces don’t always go your way, and the goalies are sometimes annoyingly good. Here consistent performance refers to a player’s shift-to-shift consistency. If they’re a shooter, do they shoot with high frequency shift in, and shift out? If they’re a playmaker, do they utilize their teammates, shift in, and shift out? If they’re a defender, do they routinely control territory from the backend, and transition as required?
Where consistent performance attempts to gauge a player’s intrinsic value, consistent impact refers to their individual value of outcomes, or expressed value. For forwards, do they consistently impact the bottom line? How many goals do they score? Are their assists mostly primary, or tertiary? Are they power play merchants, or something else? Measuring impact for defenders is a lot harder, especially if they are not puck movers, and even then, it feels like an improper use of philosophy. After all, Travis Sanheim is a puck mover, but he only scored 29 points through 67 games for the Calgary Hitman in his draft year. We can table the broader discussion for later, but I would argue that a defender’s true impact should follow Corey Sznajder’s defenseman compass.
Lastly, any prospect ready to make the jump should theoretically be peaking in terms of either consistent performance, consistent impact, or some pendulum of both. Whether it’s a mirage or not, and whether they prove to be everyday NHLers or not, doesn’t matter.
Prospects don’t always have to unlock all three. Take someone like Oskar Bäck. In three full seasons with the Texas Stars, Bäck only broke 30-plus points once. He was never a consistent, impact player. But he was extremely consistent from shift to shift as a strong defensive forward, and his development momentum peaked last season and into the AHL playoffs, where he tallied five points in seven games.
Again, being NHL ready does not guarantee an NHL career. But it should guarantee opportunity. There’s a lot more that goes into a prospect’s readiness potential. For example, how their skills interlink with an NHL roster introduces its own challenges (but not always), the sudden jump in competition, and don’t forget that How To Ruin A Player compass. But we should have some idea.
It’s this method of framing NHL readiness that I think allows us to see prospects in a more objective light. Speaking for myself, I’ve been extremely confident that Lian Bichsel is NHL ready. However, now that I have a ‘cheat sheet’ to consult, am I as confident? And is there someone who passes the readiness test?
Lian Bichsel
Bichsel has been pretty consistent. Especially in the Put Them In a Bodybag category.
However, two areas where I think Bichsel has struggled (not mightily or even dramatically, but ‘struggled’) is consistent impact, and development momentum. Former NHLer and veteran forward Zach Sanford (#12 for the Rockford Icehogs in white) took Bichsel took to skill on this play.
This is an area where Bichsel is still growing. He’s an aggressive player by nature, and while I broadly think he’s a positively impactful player, these are the moments that call into question his specific readiness. I have no doubt that Bichsel could play an NHL shift, and be more successful than some of his NHL counterparts. But would he be consistently impactful without development momentum on his side? That’s a lot more open to interpretation, and it’s possible his struggles could have a knock-on effect on his confidence. Bichsel is close to NHL ready, and he’s playing a position that’s a bit more nebulous when weighing his theoretical impact, but following the Harley plan to a T feels like the most prudent option right now.
Emil Hemming
Hemming continues to struggle with the impact part of his signature skill; namely his shooting. But as I argued last week, he’s performing well, and quietly gaining some development momentum on his side. However, he broke through the box score with a howitzer of a shot this weekend versus the Firebirds.
As mentioned, I’m focused on the second half of the season at this point. The production is frustrating, and there’s no sugarcoating it. His pace of 40 points through over 60 games would be meh even for a draft-year forward. Hemming should easily cross that threshold, which is why I’m not comfortable being too critical just yet.
Aram Minnetian
Minnetian again went pointless through this past weekend, but for a hybrid defender, this matters not. I thought he had a strong weekend. One thing about signature skills is that it doesn’t matter if they’re not leveraged where it matters. Having a good shot is great, unless you’re always chambering it on the perimeter. Minnetian’s skating is leveraged to defensive tracking.
Not just offensively, but on the penalty kill as well.
He doesn’t just cover a lot of ice here, but he seamlessly manages to pressure two forwards at once. His game will never stand out in obvious ways, but we said the thing about Esa Lindell — and yes, Joel Hanley too.
Tristan Bertucci
Bertucci is like the slightly more dynamic, but less defensively mature version of Minnetian: a smooth-skating defender who leverages his agility to defensive effect rather than offensive. Unlike Minnetian, who glides on the ice, Bertucci carves it up.
The issue with Bertucci, and he doesn’t have many, is that he seems pretty weak on retrievals. He can be bullied a bit too easily in my estimation. It’s a unique contradiction for a player is truly defense-first, but he’s still one of Dallas’ most interesting defenders.
Antonio Stranges
Stranges was riding a five-game goal-scoring streak.
It got snapped on Saturday, but Stranges is on an absurd point pace: 80, to be exact. That would be more than Mavrik Bourque’s total from last season. Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that he’s doing stuff like this—better work in tight spaces where before he’d just cough the puck up—more consistently.
Stranges is the opposite of side of our cheat sheet. Where Bäck would consistently perform, but not consistently make an impact, Stranges consistently makes an impact, but doesn’t consistently perform. The two haven’t magically aligned, but there’s denying that what he’s doing is quite special, and it’s unfortunate more people aren’t talking about it.
Chase Wheatcroft
It’s now three games since Wheatcroft tallied a point. With him being taken off the top line (which now belongs to Stranges, Hryckowian, and Kole Lind), expect this to continue.
Brad Gardiner
Gardiner picked up two assists last week, which puts him on a 60-point pace. He wasn’t as noticeable as he’s been lately, but continues his run of quality work.
Angus MacDonnell
MacDonnell is still out with an injury with the Brampton Steelheads, and hasn’t played since October 25th. No update on his return.
Christian Kyrou
Kyrou drew back into the lineup on Friday, and then returned to the bench on Saturday. Again, consistent performance and consistent impact are not one in the same. Kyrou is an impactful player, but his impact is sometimes felt on the other end of the ice. Stuff like this is, unfortunately, fairly consistent.
Ayrton Martino
Martino went pointless for Clarkson this weekend.
Can we take the opposite of this approach to analyze if a player is not NHL material anymore?
Damn... Kyrou getting straight jacked like that is not a good look.