Thinking Points: Dallas' late period collapses, Lindell and Hakanpaa, and Ty Dellandrea vs Sam Steel
What's the fault in these Stars right now?
Who knew the Dallas Stars were in such a precarious spot. It felt like just days ago that they had a secure spot as the top team in the Central. Sure the top line had yet to get cooking but between Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, and the team’s historical depth — it all seemed to be doing so well. Now they’re third in the division and sixth in the Western Conference. WTF happened?
We’ll get to that. As we’re about to hit the Game 20 mark tomorrow, it’s always worth remembering the natural ebbs and flows of a full hockey season. Yesterday’s talking point can be tomorrow’s momentum — or its crucible. Point is we’re still learning about what exactly this team is. They have some clear strengths, and they have some clear weaknesses. What is the dominant side? 19 games won’t tell us.
But we are at the point where Dallas’ +9 goal differential feels appropriate: good, but it’s good for sixth in the conference, which is fine if you’re the Jets or the Canucks but the Stars have a direct line to the Cup. Is a moderately above average goal differential the sign of a great team? Is that the kind of thing that gives fans confidence in Dallas’ long term prospects versus say, LA’s +29 or Vegas’ +19?
Part of the problem is that I don’t know that we have a full-fledged glimpse into this team’s overall ability. We’re seeing some good individual performances, but how much of a team game are we seeing? You’d hard pressed to think of any. Early on it seemed like Dallas was playing to the level of their competition. However, even within that, the Stars are 2nd in wins when trailing first i.e. the slow starts. Now that the real competition has shown up, and it’s been late-game collapses dominating the narrative. Save for a win over the New York Rangers (missing their versions of Heiskanen and Johnston), everything is starting to feel like a mirage.
I’m not ready to go there — hence the use of the word “feel” — but it I feel like I’m still waiting for this team to break through and it continues to not happen.
Late-game collapses
It’s important to respect our collective recency bias here. Just because Dallas cratered against Calgary and Colorado doesn’t mean we’re seeing a tangible pattern of the future. Instead of looking at goals-against — which doesn’t distinguish between the opportunities the defense lets through, and the opportunities that goaltending lets through — let’s look at how Dallas protects a lead.
If you’re still not used to reading this just remember blue = less and red = more. So you want blue on the bottom (expected goals against) and red on top (expected goals for). The numbers equal the effect on percentage. So for example, when Dallas is down a goal (Down 1), the Stars see an increase of 51 percentage points to score a goal.
The Stars are pretty good in the middle three categories: when the game is within one, whether tied up or down, the defense holds steady. However, once they’re up to two or more the floodgates open up. However, per Natural Stat Trick, Dallas is fifth in expected goal share when leading. So the defense is doing its job.
The difference? The Stars are 29th in save percentage when leading. Is that all on goaltending? I doubt it. But if we’re pointing fingers, that’s where I’d start.
A (some) word(s) about Lindell and Hakanpaa
In some ways, the duo of Esa Lindell with Jani Hakanpaa is misunderstood. “You’re gonna tell me they’re actually good?” Calm down. I just mean they are capable static defenders, and they offer the one thing an NHL coach values more than anything: security.
That’s evident in their ice-time. Remember when we all thought Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist might see a bump in icetime? Not anymore.
For 19 minutes a night, Pete DeBoer and his coaching staff can roll out two players who will not turn the puck over trying to make a play. Sounds good right? Having written about the two extensively, I’ll leave this here:
There’s nothing abstract about the concept of territory. For the 19 minutes a game that Lindell and Hakanpaa are on the ice, that’s 19 minutes in which the team struggles to exit the zone with possession, thereby hindering the team’s ability to break into the opposing zone with control, thus decreasing the chance of Dallas generating chances. Modern hockey is a transition game, and neither player is terribly suited for it.
What bothers me about Lindell and Hakanpaa is that they expose the lie of “offense from good defense” not because the statement itself is false but because it never includes the reverse — that defense can come from good offense (as if smarts and effort don’t inform onpuck movement just the same as offpuck movement). The two can’t get the puck out. Every play that begins with the puck on their stick breaking out of the zone ends in a neutral zone turnover, or a 50/50 battle. It’s a drag on the team’s offense, but I would argue that it affects the team defense as well.
Dellandrea or Steel?
I don’t mind being Stankoven or Bourque’s hypeman. They’ve earned it, and they have yet to stop. But I fully respect that Dallas has no room for either one of them. Nowhere is this issue more highlighted than by the fact that Dellandrea and Steel are in a rotation for a healthy scratch. Both are quality NHL players who deserve to be in the everyday rotation.
sG or ‘synthetic goals’ are a topic onto themselves, which is why I wrote a whole piece about Micah’s specific model, and what distinguishes it from other single-value stats like WAR and Game Score.
Steel’s game has slowly developed into a quality middle six player while Dellandrea is slightly behind Steel in terms of net value, but also further along than where Steel was at the same age.
Steel gets the benefit of the doubt for having more than a full season under his belt, and for the fact that he can play left wing. The cliche that “it’s a good problem to have” always neglects the fact that it’s still a problem. Look at it like this way: if Steel and Craig Smith are gone after this season then Dallas will have effectively given Dellandrea the Lundkvist treatment. Before you know it, next season is here, and suddenly we know even less about Dellandrea than we did when finally got a consistent role on the team to begin 2022. And the musical chairs of veteran stopgaps continues…
It’s not the biggest deal in the world, and I know this feels like small potatoes compared to everything else, but it bothers me. Not because Smith isn’t good, or that Steel is inferior, but that Dellandrea earned his way into NHL lineup last season. So why isn’t he a tangible part of it?
The road ahead
The Winnipeg game should be interesting, as the Jets are right there with the Avalanche and Stars in points. I haven’t respected Winnipeg’s game like I should, which makes tomorrow a good litmus test. Before the season Dallas wasn’t just a Cup contender, but a Cup favorite. Now they’re a good, dangerous team you don’t want to see in the playoffs. Does that describe Dallas or Winnipeg? Hopefully they can start changing the narrative on Tuesday.
Scheduling notes:
Tuesday: Texas Stars report
Tuesday: Stray Observation podcast
Thursday: Tales from the Clipped — WTF happened vs Colorado and Calgary? (Paid)
Thursday: Stray Observation podcast
Friday: Mailbag (I’ll call for questions on Twitter, but feel free to get them here in the comments or on my Discord server)
I hope this team can keep Dellandrea and Steel for next year. Yes we have top 6 players in the NHL that are young and have another wave down in the AHL. I'm stoked about this like the next guy. But pretty sure we've been making fun of EDM and TOR for having that embarrassment of riches in the top 6 and nothing else. Rolling 4 lines is awesome, but teams need to at least have a 3rd line that is solid and these two can easily fill most of that gap. Faksa is starting to get some love again for being the guy you may not want, but that you need in the bottom 6. I sincerely hope this team doesn't trade whacking the top 6 mole for the bottom 6 mole that hasn't been an issue for years (as seen by the number of bottom 6 former Stars around the league).
Could probably change a few words and this covers defense and losing out on Harley and Lundkvist.
Are there points in a game where Esa and Jani make sense to be on the ice, absolutely. To say that they have no purpose means you might as well stop listening to the rest of that person's rant because it will have minimal roots in fact. However, that doesn't mean that they couldn't benefit from some line blending too. Maybe you want to have a puck mover at the beginning of periods when the ice allows for some quick breakouts? Maybe you've got a strong faceoff duo and or speedy winger coming out and want to transition to offense quickly. There are points and times in the game that the active turtle doesn't make sense. Oh yeah, something about rookie development too..