Thoughts on the latest PDOcast episode on Thomas Harley, plus stray observations from Dallas' 5-4 loss to Toronto

It's always the worst of times versus Toronto.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 17-4 in their last 21 games versus the Dallas Stars. In a league where the hockey gods routinely punish the Leafs, whether the boogeyman is a zamboni driver or a zebra, the Stars can’t catch a break.

Coming off a back-to-back it wasn’t the worst performance in the world. However, it was a pretty bad night for some individuals. The biggest offender was one group in particular: the PK. At some point I want to do some analysis on the penalty kill because I think there’s a larger story. Dallas is second in save percentage on the PK. However, they’re 24th in shots on net allowed per 60.

It’s easy to make this a story about Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa. I’m as guilty as anyone about it. After all, they play the most minutes — not just the most minutes on Dallas, but they’re the three most-used defenders on the PK in the league. And indeed, I think there’s a story within that story; how much do they contribute to the system’s effectiveness? That’s a different question than '“do they keep shots down?” They don’t, obviously. But the story has to be more complicated if the bottom line is that Dallas has an elite PK.

My in-the-wild gut reaction is to say no, their value is not proportional to the minutes they play. The data is pretty damning if we’re only looking at this season too. Watching Hakanpaa get armbarred and suplexed by Auston Matthews felt like a brief vindication, but I want to approach whatever I find with a set of biased eyes looking to check that bias: what am I missing? How well do they facilitate the system? Is it the forwards contributing to Dallas’ effective bottom line, or their two primary defenders? Or do I have it the wrong way? (I’ll do some video analysis but I do know that systems-wise, Dallas does have a special focus on forward pressure.)

And if Dallas is allowing more shots than they allow, are stretches like the current rut — allowing 8 goals on the last 13 power plays — simply a matter of time?

It wasn’t all bad. Ty Dellandrea drew back in, and whether it’s in Dallas or not, he deserves to be an everyday player. Unfortunately so did Joel Hanley but if it’s true that DeBoer did so because they were both Ontario natives, that’s cool. We’ve come a long way from a prospect buying his family tickets to a game he deserved to play in only to be scratched because hockey is show business…not…show friends. (Sorry I typed that but if you know you know.)

The Stars are also still in a good spot, more or less. Tied with the Avalanche, there’s plenty of time to find out more about a team that has needs, and who can address them once the market opens up with more (and better) options.

Dimitri Filipovic and Darryl Belfry talk Thomas Harley

Sadly, much of hockey coverage (or any sports coverage) is just a squeezed-out paste that comes out of an SEO tube. Hence the word “content” — the ultimate in empty “hello, fellow hockey fans!” energy that defines such a weaksauce information landscape. Dimitri and Darryl could easily cash in on empty calories by talking about Thomas Harley’s five best plays, or What All 32 Teams Would Have to Trade In Order to Acquire Thomas Harley But Not Taylor Swift Super Bowl. Instead within the space of 49 minutes, they drop an endless barrage of knowledge, analysis, and hockey philosophy. My point? Give them some mf’ing views because they earned it on this episode.

But I understand: if you’re a Stars fan, it’s tough to just drop 49 minutes into your daily schedule, so what follows will be a rundown.

Harley’s defensive evolution

I did what I could to talk about Harley’s defensive improvements in January, but Dimitri does this full time, and Belfry actually coached NHL players. Needless to say, you’ll want to hear from them instead.

Defense from good offense? It doesn’t fit in with the normal cliches about offense from good defense, but if hockey is a three-zone game, then why would the reverse not be true? Belfry points out something I called in my initial film room analysis of Harley before the season started, which was his oddball passivity against the rush (something he’s since reversed). He used a term I need to start using, calling Harley an ‘absorb defender.’

Harley is definitely not perfect. In fact, you could argue that last night’s game against Toronto should be a sober reminder that Dallas is walking a tight rope with this pair — which is to say, if they ever have a bad game, or if a team has a good night against them, then you might as well call it a wrap. The two got their chances, but they also gave up a lot.

Like I said: it was just one game, and it’s safe to say that two will have games where they’re walking a higher path and we never want to see them apart. But in games where they’re average? It’ll probably look like last night.

Mentorship figuring into Harley’s development

Belfry brought up a really good point about the mentoring Harley received. While I’m not ready to give Ryan Suter all the credit — especially since I feel like Harley’s development really bloomed under Neil Graham in Cedar Park — I think there is truth to the idea that players need teammates who can identify those transactional moments, whether it’s imparting wisdom or a conversation outside of the rink, to maximize growth. Students and pro hockey players may not be the same people, but everyone shares a what you might call a ‘thriving quotient’ for their level of engagement, determination, optimism, connectedness and citizenship.

As hockey fans, we’re never privy to what is said away from the game between teammates, but we know these interactions take place, and like mentoring anywhere else, we know these have immense value.

Quick note: I believe I’ve mentioned this before but when we get into slow season, I’m gonna do some book reviews. I’ve got two of his books, Belfry Hockey (2020) and Belfry Offense (2023), that are fantastic, and figured I’d share them with readers. If you have any recommendations, let me know and I’ll schedule them. I’m slowly getting back into the habit of being a bookworm, which means at last I don’t have to recycle my own adverbs and adjectives here.

Harley with Heiskanen; why it couldn’t happen earlier

Apologies for prefacing every comment with “I thought Belfry brought up a really interesting point!” but, hey — writing is hard. Belfry mentioned what makes talent paired with talent an unlikely inflection point, which is that because parity is so intense in the modern NHL, defense is that much more critical when playing big minutes, bringing up the examples of how Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek largely work because of Hughes’ time spent with Chris Tanev.

He also endorses the Harley-Heiskanen pair, which is the one area where I must respectfully disagree.

Harley-Heiskanen exist out of perceived necessity — nobody outside of them can control all three zones, so why not guarantee that control for the 17 minutes a game they play together? I don’t have a problem with this logic. However, it’s hard to imagine Dallas doing this if, say, they had a top four right shot defensemen. There’s also just the oddball nature of their lineup. Esa Lindell makes too much money to be dropped to the third pair, and Jim Nill is too loyal to scratch Ryan Suter. So that leaves Harley in a weird hyperspace where his even strength function can’t even occur without Heiskanen. When he’s not with Heiskanen, he’s on a pair with either Nils Lundkvist or Joel Hanley, which pushes Suter back up top with Heiskanen.

Credit to DeBoer for such a brilliant stopgap. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking he actively prefers this setup.

Harley’s unique shooting approach

There’s some great discussion about Harley’s shot, and what makes him different. I love how Belfry frames Harley’s activations as “having a second center” because it paints a clearer picture of why Harley is so unique. Belfry also points out something I never noticed, which is that Harley routinely shoots halfway up in the net, giving his forward teammates better position to catch them waist high, thus maximizing deflections.

One of the big questions moving forward is “will Harley’s shooting slow down?” Of course. But is the bulk of what he’s doing sustainable? Defensemen don’t get to score goals, and yes, Harley’s shooting hot. In fact he technically leads the league in goals above expected among defensemen at 7.6, tied with MacKenzie Weegar. But except for Brenden Dillon’s randomly great season, every defender “shooting hot” are also chance generation machines: Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Evan Bouchard, all in the top 10.

Harley’s goals may decline, but his offense won’t. Also, for those that would rather just watch 19 minutes of Harley being elite; take it away PDOcast!

Closing Thoughts

Kind of sucks for the PK to have such a bad night. Because all we’re gonna hear between now and the trade deadline is how to improve the blueline, I’d rather wait until the trade deadline to write about how Dallas can improve the blueline. But I get it. We’re talking about improving the blueline because Dallas needs to improve the blueline.

In some ways the schedule is a blessing. Broadly speaking, Dallas has a weaker schedule than most but it sure as hell isn’t this month. They have only four games at home of the remaining 11 for the month. Carolina twice, Colorado, Boston, Winnipeg, Edmonton — only Montreal and Ottawa are the genuine “weak links” and Dallas has struggled to play them like weak links.

Point being: a tough schedule is the perfect time to convince Nill he needs to do something drastic…or that Dallas is a real contender, and might only need tinkering, if that. Their showing against Toronto wasn’t a positive development, especially when paired with their iffy performance against Buffalo, but we’re also talking about a back-to-back against a quality team. Whatever happens next, I’m sure we’ll be talking about the same thing. But hey — you keep reading and I’ll keep writing.

As always, thank you subscribers, and a special thanks to paid subscribers.