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Watching The Spreadsheets: From offense to defense to goaltending to coaching (to management). Who are these Dallas Stars so far?

This team is up to something.

David Castillo's avatar
David Castillo
Feb 06, 2026
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Normally I sit here, complain about not knowing who these Stars are — probably because the spreadsheets provide no easy answers and you know how few games us chart huggers watch — laud the special teams, and move on to complaining some more about not knowing who these Stars are. Is that still true? Not really. Because I think we finally have some answers.

As of this writing, blown third-period leads or not (and we’ll dig into that), the Stars are sitting pretty. While they are technically third in the division, they are second in points percentage. Even more critically, the PDO gods cup checked the Colorado Avalanche pretty good these last few weeks. Dallas is now within six points of the top spot. Catching the Avalanche is still a major hurdle, but who thought we’d be in a world where the Stars now have a three percent chance of playing Utah in the first round, and a two percent chance of playing Vegas? (Per Micah Blake McCurdy’s model projections)

Granted, I don’t know that it’s really that much better than Minnesota in round one, but still. Despite all the third period bumps and bruises along the way, they continue to gain more rope for the long game. However, should we really give a damn at this point? I don’t think so. We were in the same spot a few years ago when Dallas’ first two matchups were Vegas and Colorado: an impossible task they said. Granted, the Stars still lost in the end, but Dallas can only control who they are. And who they are continues to evolve.

Today we’ll look at every piece at a glance: offense, defense, goaltending, special teams, coaching, and yes — Jim Nill and upper management.

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