2024-2024 Dallas Stars: Forward training camp battles and all that's fair in love and war

There's not much mystery. But that's not to say there isn't intrigue.

Edit: Apologies for posting this. I had been working on writing about Johnny Gaudreau, and still am. This was written well before then, and had been already scheduled and I simply forgot to un-schedule it. Ugh.

Don’t expect much intrigue.

The Dallas Stars have a grocery list of impact players among their forward core. In fact, their forward core is the envy of the league precisely because their forward staples consist of veterans aging gracefully (Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin), and prospects barely allowed to drink (Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven). More critically than that, their actual core is right within that peak production window, making the 297 goals they scored last season — third in the NHL behind only Colorado and Toronto — feel like an engine just getting warmed up.

Because of that, there’s not a whole lot to actually mull over. This isn’t 2015, when a young Mattias Janmark, gameface hero that he is, forced everyone’s hand and earned himself a roster spot. It definitely isn’t the year after, when a platoon of forwards scrambled to grab a plate: Curtis McKenzie, Brett Ritchie, Devin Shore, Jason Dickinson, Gemel Smith, Jiri Hudler, and probably others I’m missing.

This year, training camp is really the Mavrik Bourque audition and not much else. However, it’s worth exploring Dallas’ options. The Stars don’t have a forward weakness, but they also don’t have what could charitably be called ‘reinforcements’ — as in, players with that ‘next man up’ resume. Nonetheless, that’s the point of today: how deep is the Dallas’ forward iceberg?

But more importantly, is there someone we haven’t talked about who could become part of that depth iceberg?

Roster Projection

Staples

Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment, Sam Steel, Evgenii Dadonov

While the top line is a question mark, nobody questions the chemistry of Robertson and Hintz (okay maybe a little, as their offense didn’t explode like it did the previous two years). Whoever you put there — which DailyFaceoff projects will be Johnston — will do just fine.

For Robertson and Hintz, the real question is whether or not they can calibrate their game for more goals. While they took a modest step back offensively, the same was not true defensively, for either one of them. If they end up scoring more, will they sacrifice that Selke mana as a result? Which one is preferable? Nonetheless, their bottom line value will help propel Dallas towards being an elite offensive team.

The broader issue is what kind of knock-on effect Johnston has on the other trios if he’s on the top line. Who is Benn without Johnston? If Duchene gets moved up, who are Marchment and Seguin without him? It’s not exactly a precarious situation for a team with such historic depth last year, but it does have potential to disrupt the previous order of things. To what degree is anyone’s guess.

Neither Steel nor Dadonov will move the needle, but they’ll do their job without incident. Last season, Pavelski was Dallas’ fourth most-used forward. Unless Stankoven fooled the sport of hockey by reaching his peak before becoming Calder-eligible, I think we can reasonably assume he’ll be able to take over those Pavelski minutes.

One reason why this season projects to be so much fun is that Stars fans will get to chase a lot of stories. How much better can Johnston get? Can Stankoven compete with Calder favorites, like Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Dustin Wolf, Olen Zellwegger, and Lane Hutson? On the less positive side, what about Seguin and Benn? Will they hit their respective walls? Will Duchene pull off a reverse Marchment?

“Next Man Up”

Colin Blackwell, Mavrik Bourque

These two will be on the opening night roster, but I put them in this category only because they’re brand new additions, and unknowns in terms of value.

The biggest factor in Bourque’s presence is where he goes. My assumption is that Johnston plays on the top line, and to ease Bourque’s transition — Dallas reunites him with Stankoven. However, does this actually maximize that line? This is an important question, and one that I think gets underdiscussed among Stars fans.

Without Johnston to anchor his own combo (which he did), Bourque essentially ‘resets’ the Bennassaince. Bourque is less of a plug-and-play forward like Johnston. So don’t be surprised if this connection is a little slow going. Where Johnston was too good to be brought down, I think Bourque could be too specific to pull Benn up. But that’s only an assumption. Maybe Stankoven will tie everything together, and they’ll have the ideal chemistry to limit each other’s weaknesses. I could see that happening too. Bourque isn’t Johnston, but he has similar three-zone awareness. Nonetheless, this potential trio is by no means a given. As for my prediction, you know where I ultimately stand.

All that said, it’ll be the challenge for Bourque. He’ll have to prove that his chemistry with Stankoven can work at the NHL level. He’ll have to prove that his game can link with Benn’s forward momentum. He’ll have to prove he can do this all consistently while being an offensive option by others. It’s not exactly an uphill battle: Benn is still a good offensive player right now, and Stankoven is a whirlwind. But the margins for error are thin, less so in terms of failure — Bourque won’t be a fifteen or twenty-point player or anything — and more so in terms of optimization; as in, can he replicate some of what Johnston did for Benn and Stankoven so that Pete DeBoer and his coaching staff never have to scramble the other lines just because they’re prone to cold streaks? Can they dominate in a way that the Johnston line often did?

There is a potential cost, and while I would argue that this line of questioning should really be applied to all players, veterans included, Bourque’s offensive game is simultaneously broad yet specific. Yes, his playmaking and spatial awareness should be able to tap into Benn and Stankoven’s strengths. But what about his movement? Johnston is not a speedster, but he’s faster than Bourque, and he’s been operating as that line’s triggerman. With Bourque, the movement from the center position will look quite a bit different.

As for Blackwell, he’ll fit like a glove on the fourth line.

X-Factors

Matej Blumel, Kole Lind, Curtis McKenzie, Oscar Bäck, Fredrik Karlstrom (edit: Karlstrom is now with the Bridgeport Islanders. Not sure how I missed this.)

These are not active options, so much as options if Dallas has no choice.

Blumel is no longer a prospect, but he’s one of the few Texas Stars talented enough to not only make Dallas’ roster, but actively contribute. I’m on record as not being a “fan” of his game, but admittedly it’s perfectly suited for a theoretical transition. His game isn’t complicated. He moves his legs, and he shoots: nothing more. Should injuries hit, he’s basically the only AHLer I’m confident can be relatively productive with the right linemates.

A similar argument can be made for Lind. By all accounts, Vancouver wanted to keep him ahead of the expansion draft — that is, until they traded for Jason Dickinson. Since then he’s found that next level the Canucks had hoped. However, he’s leveled up within the AHL, meaning there’s a whole other barrier to cross. Lind, whose major knock is that he lacks footspeed, is a long shot, but if he can be as productive this year as he was last year (65 points in 69 games; his second consecutive sixty point campaign in the A’), he’ll be the next man up, especially as someone with 31 games of NHL experience. Unlike Blumel, Lind isn’t a plug-and-play forward though. Dallas would need him on the top line for him to be effective; or rather, for him to have a chance to be effective. Still, while I don’t personally see an NHL-quality player, he’s an intriguing forward all the same.

McKenzie, Bäck, and Karlstrom are the last of the aces. McKenzie has remained consistently productive in his advanced age, and I was actually pleasantly surprised this year. He looked solid next to Bourque and Stankoven (even more than Blumel IMO), and his gridiron style hasn’t lost a step. Bäck and Karlstrom play vanilla-enough games to be trusted in sheltered minutes; Bäck as a Faksa-lite type, and Karlstrom as a fake Hemsky or something.

Not exactly a rockstar group, but they’ll be important pieces in the AHL, which is good enough.

Stop asking

Antonio Stranges, Phil Kessel

We had this discussion! But in case you missed it, now’s your chance.