2024 NHL Draft Profile: Why the Dallas Stars must draft E.J. Emery

Another Chris Tanev replacement falls to Dallas.

I know this was scheduled for Friday on the original calendar, but I thought a) who cares if it’s not and b) I think a ‘How Does it Affect the Stars: Stanley Cup Edition’ is in order for tomorrow after tonight’s Game 3 between Florida and Edmonton.

Last week we looked at tall, right-handed defender Charlie Elick. If you’re looking to replace Chris Tanev, Elick is the guy. But he’s not the only guy. And that’s what brings us to an equally tantalizing hybrid defender in E.J. Emery.

The Bio

• Date of Birth: Mar. 30, 2006

• Age: 18

• Height: 6′3

• Weight: 185lbs

• Position: RHD

• Shoots: Right

• Team: U.S National U18 Team (NTDP)

What the pros are saying

Below I’ve highlighted a few choice quotes from the most familiar, and most respected public outlets.

From EPRinkside (ranking him at #31):

• Emery absorbs and erases opposing rushes with smooth backward strides and a stable, perfect posture. Stick in front of him, extended but not overreaching, he pushes opponents wide and pivots onto them, knocking the puck away with a precise pokecheck. Often tasked with covering for his partner, Emery also learned to skate forward and draw long arcs in the neutral-zone to close on opponents and force them to get rid of the puck.

From Scott Wheeler (ranking him at #32):

• Emery is capable of owning his ice defensively (though there are times when scouts would like to see him be a little meaner/harder), continues to show growth handling and transporting pucks (especially in transition) and has major steps that he can continue to take in his development because of a very wiry frame that has clear room for significant gains (it’s my understanding that he has worked very hard at it, eating a ton and training a ton, but his metabolism just burns right through it). He was the best pure defender at the program this year and I think his man-to-man D in the defensive zone (which is a strength!) could still be polished even more and use a little urgency at times.

From Corey Pronman (ranking him at #36):

• Emery is a player with a lot of pro traits. He's 6-foot-3 and skates very well being one of the more athletic defensemen in his age group. He is strong on gaps and retrievals, plays hard on his checks and has the potential to make a lot of NHL stops. He can attack with his feet and often jumps up into the rush.

Unimaginative, misleading comparables

• K’Andre Miller

• Matt Roy

• Chris Tanev

• Mattias Ekholm

• Darnell Nurse

• Josh Manson

The numbers

Better than 91 percent of his draft peers defensively, if you’re looking for a shutdown defensemen, Emery fits the profile in every way. More critically, he fits the profile of a modern-day shutdown defensemen. The production isn’t there, but that’s not why you’re drafting this smooth-skating defensive specialist.

The tape

Personal observations

Elick used to be my guy. But lately I’ve been talking myself into Emery. Emery seems a little bit more confident with the puck in the defensive zone than Elick. Like the other tall shutdown defender, they both leverage their plus-skating to great effect in the defensive zone, and use it to further pressure the neutral zone to facilitate counter attacks, but Emery, I think, makes the slightly better reads.

I like that Emery isn’t just the sum of his physical gifts either. In that way he reminds me a bit of Lian Bichsel, who I also credit for being like-minded. Emery does a good job of calculating the defensive math on any given play. This is a point — adjacent to Emery, granted — that Daryl Belfry brought about Logan Stankoven, and how people confuse his endless motor with endless work. Yes, he’s working hard, but if it were just hard work than anyone who could skate would be all over the ice the way he is; it’s a testament to how he anticipates, and calculates in the moment that he’s ‘everywhere all at once’. Emery has that element to his game, where his physicality stands out because it’s always used for positive movement rather than merely speed in all directions.

There’s a part past the four-minute mark of the first shift video where his team is defending a 5-on-3 and to kind of defend two players at once he shoves the guy in front of the net while keeping his eye on the play, aware of the weakside threat. That’s another part I dig about his game. His head, to quote the football cliche, is always on a swivel.

The downside is the reason why Emery is not a top 15 pick: lack of offense. Again, this is not a point I like to belabor because it’s like belaboring a skilled forward for not being able to defend. It matters, but it’s all about degree. Emery’s offense, honestly, doesn’t look like it’ll ever be unlocked.

In the modern game, offense is as much about about the hard talents as it is about the soft skills; from puck handling to space manipulation; from shooting to off-puck positioning; etc. Emery doesn’t have either. One thing I’ll say about his offense though is that he talks openly about wanting to be a better creator, and we know he puts in serious work to begin with (4 percent??!). If he ever does, maybe the comparison to K’Andre Miller (who tallied over 40 points last year) won’t be a cheap, superficial comparison after all.

How he helps the Stars

At some point Dallas will want to figure out the handedness portion of their blueline makeup. A player like Emery fixes that wholesale.

What makes Emery tricky is that a player like him brings the old BPA vs. Need debate back into focus. I hate this damn artificial debate, but let’s assume teams actually have a way of:

• a) categorizing with near-mathematical certitude who the BPA is and…

• b) can afford to ignore what happens to their prospect pool when they’re out of talents at certain positions…

In this unlikely scenario, then Dallas is clearly picking Emery because he has a high floor for a position that’s hard to fill. A reader brought up a point that I completely ignored: Luke Krys (tall, right shot defender in Cedar Park) was quite good in his brief stint. Granted, I don’t expect Krys to make the jump. And Emery is a far more talented player. But I think it clarifies the BPA vs. Need debate. In fact, let’s ask it direct:

Would a core three of Heiskanen-Harley-Bichsel with a rotating RHD free agent plus a blue chip forward be better than a core four of Heiskanen-Harley-Bichsel-Emery minus a blue chip forward?

And that’s why I like Emery. Bringing in a blue chip forward talent is a lot easier than a top four defender. (Although we should still ask how Nill did it re: Tanev)

I personally think Emery has it all to replace what Dallas will lose once Tanev is gone. Doesn’t mean I think he’s the same player; but it does mean he’s close enough for Dallas to seriously consider him.