2024 NHL Free Agency: The Dallas Stars just got worse

In my opinion.

There never seems to be much rhyme or reason hence the word ‘frenzy’ typically attached to this period of time. Free agency is a lot like the draft in many ways, with projections playing out like rugged metaphysics rather than a clean calculus. How does Jaccob Slavin, one of the game’s premiere shutdown defenders, get less than Brandon Montour? How does a Cup-winning Jonathan Marchessault get the same amount as Sean Monahan? What makes a bottom pairing defender like Joel Edmunsen worth more than Oliver Ekman-Larsson?

FOMO was the word of the day, it seems. Nowhere did this apply more accurately than to Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars; a day that was broken down thoroughly by friend of this place, Robert Tiffin.

I’ll return to Robert’s thesis, but ‘underwhelmed’ is the most diplomatic term I can think of for a day like today. They signed Matt Dumba. Then Ilya Lyubushkin. Then Brenden Smith. Like a cast of progressively less capable henchmen (yes, Dumba might actually be the best of the bunch) it was almost hard to believe; hard to believe Dallas would have any interest in any of these players, and certainly not all at once; harder still, to think they believed this was the follow up to Chris Tanev’s brilliance.

I’ll do my best to consider any silver linings at the end. But for now, let’s be brutally honest, starting at the top…

Matt Dumba: 2 x $3.75 million

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model (sG).

Believe it or not, I’ve always liked Dumba (trucking Joe Pavelski is more or less irrelevant in my eyes, as most GMs would have loved to see one of their defensemen do the same thing to an opposing star player). Early in his career, he had a unique profile as a short but stout, physical defender who could drop bombs from the point. An unfortunate injury changed all that, and like Tyler Seguin, he’s never looked like himself since. Unlike Seguin, he still hasn’t adjusted. To make matters worse, he’s been actively bad on the penalty kill — something Dallas already struggled with in the playoffs.

For those that don’t remember, Dumba was actually scratched on an Arizona Coyotes team that had very little depth. To me the real crime here is imagining what Dumba will look like next to Esa Lindell. Part of what leveled up Lindell’s game is that he could continue to be an effective passenger. Even Lindell’s biggest fans will concede that Chris Tanev was Dallas’ go-to shutdown defender, and the one Pete DeBoer prioritized in the tough matchups. Tanev being a deft puck rusher and handler also meant less dump-outs, and actual outlet passes coming out of the zone. With Tanev out, and Dumba in, I can’t imagine this being anything other than a Lindell-Hakanpaa redux.

Ilya Lyubushkin: 3 x $3.25 million

Lyubushkin has led a solid-ish journeyman career as basically the Russian version of Roman Polak. Like Polak, his physicality will make people think he’s useful and ignore the ripple effect he has on Dallas’ ability to move the puck up ice, or be able to defend effectively in both aggressive and passive ways — which is to say, not at all. Normally this would be a perfectly reasonably pick-up, even at two million (his bottom line in terms defensive impact is at least average), but he’s significantly higher than that while grading out even worse than Dumba.

Like Dumba, Lyubushkin makes the penalty kill worse, as teams’ ability to score goes up seven percentage points with him on the ice. However, what happens if Dumba struggles and Lyubushkin is asked to play higher up the lineup? Again, back to where we started re: Hakanpaa. At least Dumba on the bottom pair can make sense, a lot like Ryan Suter did once his role was reduced. Dumba is a little more layered as a defender. Lyubushkin, however, is gonna be a physical stay-at-home defender without an ounce of three-zone presence no matter where he is.

Brendan Smith: one year, one million

This move is four years too late. Smith has had a tough last few years. Between injuries, suspensions, and just overall decline — he’s now no different than Dumba and Lyubushkin: zero impact on offense, average defensively, and a minus on special teams. Part of the excitement going into next year is that someone like Lian Bichsel could get an extended look. That was always overly optimistic, but bringing in Smith further complicates that. Granted, I doubt the organization thinks so highly of Smith that he’s guaranteed a roster spot, hence the contract. But still, seems superfluous. Turns out, I didn’t know the meaning of the word…

Nils Lundkvist: 1 x $1.25 million

Yes, they’re bringing Lundkvist back. As if two seasons of failing to gain the coach’s trust/coach’s failing to trust him wasn’t enough, surely the third time with even more obstacles in front of him will be a charm. On the bright side, he’s the only one without a radioactive sG chart.

That sound you’re hearing is my brain unsuccessfully trying to diffuse the grenade the way Lance Henrikson does in Hard Target. “Whoops!” My assessment of Lundkvist has always been hopeful, but relatively lukewarm. Regardless, I have no idea what the plan is here.

Matt Duchene: 1 x $3M

It’s hard for me to shake Duchene’s last several months of play. Not only did he fade down the stretch, but he looked actively bad in the playoffs, failing to adjust.

It’s a little like the Evgenii Dadonov deal, where familiarity seemed to be pulling more weight than it warranted. That’s ultimately my “issue” — if I had to choose between a less productive, middle six forward who can dominate possession in the playoffs versus a productive, middle six forward who can’t, I’m taking the former over the latter every day of the week and twice on Domingo. Is it that simple? No. I just don’t feel like bringing back Duchene was automatic, or a “no brainer.”

Having said that, it’s anything but a bad deal. Points are still valuable. Even if Duchene only gave Dallas 50 points next year, that’s still excellent output for only three million per. A couple of other things make this palatable for me: 1) Duchene ignited Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin and 2) none of this accounts for Duchene playing elsewhere, potentially unlocking new chemistries. I personally love the idea of Mavrik Bourque playing next to Duchene — Bourque is a plodding skater, so being next to someone with speed could do wonders.

Casey DeSmith: 3 x $1 million

Love this one. (His personal history, less so)

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here for an explanation of Evolving Hockey’s Delta Fenwick Save Percentage (dFSv%).

Basically, Dallas can trust him at even strength, just not on the power play.

Stepping back, silver linings, and the big picture

The last thing I want to do is the roast the Dallas Stars. After two consecutive Western Conference Finals, Jim Nill winning GM of the Year for the second time in a row, there’s no reason to be pessimistic. And yet it’s hard to shake the notion that doing nothing would have been better than what they did.

Instead of replacing Tanev, they bought out Suter and then signed three different versions of Suter. Instead of giving Nils Lundkvist a change of scenery like they did Ty Dellandrea, they brought him back for more. The forwards remain the same, minus Joe Pavelski, and though I consider a Mavrik Bourque a potential upgrade — it’s also a purely theoretical one, and certainly one that won’t replace Pavelski’s production. So what are we missing?

In 2016, Dallas made a hell of a run. Only an injured Tyler Seguin really held them back. It’s too bad, too. In response, Nill brought in depth; extraneous depth; like stuffed crust pizza as appetizer. Adam Cracknell, Jiri Hudler, Lauri Korpikoski. Did more of something make Dallas more a contender? Nope. The season that followed was a disaster; although really due to injuries less than roster makeup. However, in 2016, Nill didn’t sell the farm for another Cup run. What followed was the 2017 draft, and Dallas’ best years for the franchise under his watch. That doesn’t mean the Stars will be back, better than ever at some undetermined point in time. It only means that Nill will stick with his normal process: draft well, pony up on short term veteran stopgaps, and leave the expensive term to the cornerstone players.

The other factor is this: Dallas will still be a good team. They were a good team without Tanev — they even made the WC Finals without him — so that part won’t change.

I’d expect something like this to start the season.

Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Mavrik Bourque

Jamie Benn-Wyatt Johnston-Logan Stankoven

Mason Marchment-Tyler Seguin-Matt Duchene

Sam Steel-Radek Faksa-Evgenii Dadonov

Thomas Harley-Miro Heiskanen

Esa Lindell-Matt Dumba

Brenden Smith-Ilya Lyubushkin

The blueline is not very good, but at least it has a third pair DeBoer will trust (part of the reason why bringing back Lundkvist is so bizarre). The forward group is basically the same. I wouldn’t expect Bourque to stay on the top line, or even start on the top line, but it would be a worthwhile experiment. You’re more likely to see Bourque center the line with Marchment and Duchene, with Seguin moving up to the top line; something Dallas tried in the Edmonton series.

However, as the season progresses, don’t be surprised if we see something like this.

Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Wyatt Johnston

Jamie Benn-Mavrik Bourque-Logan Stankoven

Mason Marchment-Tyler Seguin-Matt Duchene

Sam Steel-Radek Faksa-Evgenii Dadonov

Esa Lindell-Miro Heiskanen

Thomas Harley-Matt Dumba

Lian Bichsel-Ilya Lyubushkin

Probably not a Cup-winning roster, but I like it.

The bottom line is that Dallas is a lesser team today than they were yesterday. However, they were a great team before “yesterday” too.

Bonus: A reader was kind enough to photoshop Micah’s defender sG charts with the new additions. Looks about right. (Thanks Thalia!)