(2024 Playoffs, Round 2) Game 6 Stray Observations: Dallas eliminates Colorado in double overtime and onto the Western Conference Final

Onto round three.

It was never gonna be easy. But for a minute, it looked like it might. For four games, Colorado never had the lead, and Dallas had largely shut down Nathan MacKinnon, and for a brief stretch, Cale Makar. The Stars seemed primed to leverage their experience versus the Golden Knights into all kinds of efficiencies versus a team that maybe wasn’t quite as good, but certainly just as dangerous. And going into double overtime, you couldn’t help but fear the worst. Until you didn’t.

Dallas’ journey so far has been epic. Up against the ultimate black hat in Round 2 and eventually down by two through the first two, the Stars found a way thanks to Wyatt Johnston’s heroics. Against Colorado, just when it seemed like their depth might be slowing down, Matt Duchene came up big — as did his teammates, who we’ll get to in a bit. Duchene had been something of a mixed bag throughout the series. But no matter how much he struggled, he’s too good to get blanked for that long, and to that end, it felt like a matter of time.

Duchene played the game like he knew the narrative; and that Dallas needed more from him. He delivered in a big way, and now Dallas awaits the Vancouver vs. Edmonton winner; a fascinating series in and of itself, with both opponents serving as their own unique challenges. For now, at last Dallas gets to be the one resting, and waiting on others.

On a programming note, depending on how the schedule shakes out, I’ll have two paid posts next week: one for a juicy (I think) Tales From the Clipped on how Dallas shut down Nathan MacKinnon, and the other will be an Into the Weeds preview of the Vancouver/Edmonton winner (like with the Colorado and Vegas series, it’ll be two previews essentially, with the deeper cuts for the paid group).

Alex Petrovic draws in

In some ways this felt like a long time coming. Nils Lundkvist didn’t have Pete DeBoer’s trust, and beyond that — Game 5 felt like an example of Dallas’ five-man rotation reaching a lowkeythreshold. Petrovic is the closest thing Dallas has to Jani Hakanpaa; a big-bodied right shot, shutdown defender. As someone who thought Petrovic was a solid add for the blueline in the AHL, his decline was noticeable soon after. Where he used to have modest speed for such a big guy, he’s slowed over the years, and well; that’s where I’ll leave it. (He looked okay in proportion to expectation, but his footspood got exposed on a few occasions.)

Dallas’ penalty kill

IMO that was just a filthy release by Mikko Rantanen. There was definitely some discombobulation from the defensemen on the penalty kill, with Esa Lindell getting caught chasing. Jake Oettinger definitely got caught, but it felt like a function of the so-called reverse VH “pandemic.” Was it that? I don’t know. But we’re talking about a perennial 30-goal scorer for functionally seven years straight, including 55 last season.

Jamie Benn

Benn is a player I figured would slow down after last year’s explosion. For a moment, it looked like he would. But a lot of credit goes to his linemates for really getting the most out of his game. He was one of the better players in the Vegas series; one of the few who looked completely at home with Vegas’ bruising style. Against Colorado, he’s also been solid.

Sticktap to Evgenii Dadonov and DeBoer

If Benn and Tyler Seguin have any experience, it’s with Russians as their wingman. First Valeri Nichushkin, then Alex Radulov, and now — Dadonov. Dadonov has been one of those under-the-radar players like Sam Steel, but who is now very much in the spotlight. He’s been having a good playoffs in general, but he’s been downright unleashed versus Colorado.

I thought even the Marchment-Seguin-Pavelski had some good looks. I know we’ve been extra critical of Pavelski, less because he’s not the player he once was, and more because DeBoer kept putting him up in the top six where he was just out of place.

The biggest winner obviously was the Marchment-Duchene-Pavelski trio. Not just because of the goal, but because they were getting all kinds of looks as soon as they got spackled together. It’ll be interesting to see how things unfold once Hintz returns.

The No Goal call

In general, the unwritten rule — or heuristic rather — is that the goalie gets the benefit of the doubt if they’re inside the crease and contact is made, whereas the player gets the benefit of the doubt if they’re outside of it and contact is made. Here, Matt Duchene straddled that line, and Makar is the one who broke that line. Clear cut, right? Not when the burden of proof shifts. Because it was called a no-goal, the officials needed something more than the debate we’re having now. They needed an angle that left no doubt. I don’t agree with it, like at all. But goalie interference calls are never consistent, and this one was, unfortunately, no different.

Thomas Harley; a quick word

There was a really interesting moment at the end of Period 2 with Dallas down by one. Harley, with the puck on his stick in the defensive zone, just up and smashed the shit out of the puck in frustration. While he’s been quiet, it was revealing for what it said about either his own reflection about his play, or his desire to win. I don’t even think Harley’s been bad. He’s been excellent, in fact. But if anyone’s primed for a breakout, it’s Harley. As Scott Steiner used to say, “the numbers don’t lie.”

The Colorado perspective

Colorado will be working with over nine million in cap next season, not counting whatever they give Casey Mittelstadt. In other words, the Avalanche are still set up extremely well next season to once again contend. Especially should Valeri Nichushkin and Gabriel Landeskog ever come back. Colorado is still an elite team.

With the exception of Sean Walker, all of their UFAs are replaceable. However, you have to wonder what exactly management is waiting for. After losing Nazem Kadri and Landeskog, they seemed content to spin their wheels with filler while MacKinnon and Makar remain firmly in their prime. I think the Mittelstadt trade was a good one. I love when teams make trades like that. But until Game 5, they left him on an island. The Avalanche are a team that would benefit from that Vegas aggressiveness. Look how far they pushed Dallas despite missing key players.

Colorado does have some solid prospects at key positions, with Calum Ritchie, Sean Behrens, and Mikhail Gulyayev leading the way. It’ll be interesting to see if they can integrate some youth into a lineup that’s gonna need it given their lack of cap flexibility. They were a worthy opponent, but they feel like a team that’s still one major move away from being true contenders again.