(2024 Playoffs, Round 3) Game 1 Stray Observations: Edmonton 3-2 over Dallas in double overtime

That one's gonna sting. For a lot of reasons.

In our comprehensive preview of the Dallas Stars versus the Edmonton Oilers, one thing the data made very clear that might not have been clear to most Stars fans, or most fans in general — was that Edmonton was actually kind of favored. Again, in a statistical sense, but still. This is not to score one for the nerdonauts or anything silly like that; only to say that Edmonton didn’t simply deserve the courtesy respect for being in the Western Conference Finals, but active respect.

I want to skip the goofy stuff about Dallas losing Game 1. Yes, they lose Game 1 a lot. But they also lost Game 1 of the Vegas series last year. And they lost Game 1 tonight, which may be amusing if they win, but you know what’s not amusing? Going 0 for 5 on the power play. Nor is it amusing that they had to overcome a two-goal deficit.

I’m not here to sound the alarm bells. Nor am I here to be negative. I just find the narrative about losing Game 1 to be absurd as if it’s some feather in a team’s cap. Home-ice advantage is presumably something you earn, right? Just saying.

In the broad strokes, it wasn’t a bad game for Dallas, though. I thought they played relatively tight at even strength. Edmonton didn’t burn them on the plays they’re known for, meanwhile, the Oilers played strong in their own end, with the only true mental turbulence coming from a Brett Kulak flubbed pass. In other words, a tight series favors Dallas, and that’s what Game 1 was: tight.

Yes, we can talk more about the power play, but I didn’t come away from the game thinking Dallas might have finally met their match. If anything, the absence of Roope Hintz felt that much more tangible. It was a bad loss for specific reasons rather than a loss featuring bad omens.

Programming note: Thank you for the survey feedback. Some stuff I wasn’t surprised by (typos), some stuff I’m glad was mentioned (explaining some of the analytics), and some stuff I can’t really help (abrasive? Help me out here: in what way?), and then, of course, stuff I’m glad there was broad consensus on (paid vs. non-paid writing). While certain things I won’t have time for until the summer, I read each and every one, and fully intend to change what I can. Especially this one.

Cuss more and throw around more 80's and 90's pop culture references. That is all. Good day now.

The cherrypick

Once again Dallas caught a team slipping. I mentioned on Twitter that this is something that almost feels like a systems trait — a Dallas winger blowing the zone weakside with another forward in a 50/50 battle along the opposite wall. Could be a coincidence, but it feels like a pattern.

Benn and Seguin, back again

The stories of Benn and Seguin can’t be emphasized enough. By any statistical standard, they should be players, that if not failing to be as productive, should be failing to be as performative. Instead they continue to be both. Sure, they’re shy of their primes, but the effort and adjustments in their respective games is worth highlighting because getting the best of what they have left out of them will be what allows Dallas win the Cup should they get past Edmonton. Their line with Dadonov has been aces.

Power(less) play

First, credit where credit is due. In game 7 versus Vancouver, the Canucks received a four-minute minor and not only did Edmonton kill it off — they ended up recording more shots on the PK than Vancouver did on the PP. Edmonton has truly found a new gear when down a man, and it’ll be the story to watch should this series go long.

Beyond that, Dallas look flustered. Yes, Jason Robertson almost won the game on the power play, twice, but against ten minutes of attack time, Edmonton just looked like the better special teams, umm, team. As essential as Joe Pavelski’s hand-eye coordination has been, it might be time to take him off that unit. Pavelski didn’t even have a terrible game or anything; I just think Robertson and Wyatt Johnston need to be tied at the hip at this point.

Chris Tanev: still the (D) man

The telecast gave a lot of credit to Jake Oettinger on that crucial save on overtime on McDavid, and indeed he did. But Tanev not giving up on the play and eventually getting his stick in the way prevented McDavid from being able to outwait Oettinger a split second longer to ultimately lift the puck. Yes, he was on the ice for that McDavid goal, but he’s still the best shutdown defender in the game IMO.

About the line blender

I must say, I’m not too fond of it right now. It’s not because I find anything wrong with the combinations themselves, or even that it’s somehow unnecessary; with Hintz out, you kind of expect this. But I just wish Pavelski would get some time on the fourth line. Players like Sam Steel and Craig Smith have been doing the kind of yeoman’s work that is usually rewarded, meanwhile Pavelski — again, he was okay tonight — has mostly struggled.

Edmonton’s perspective

Edmonton has to feel good about their long-term prospects. Yes, Dallas is scary on the road, but their penalty kill has some been fantastic for longer than just Game 1. You have to know the special teams pendulum will swing in your favor too. Maybe it’ll be Dallas’ turn to deflate the man advantage on Edmonton’s end, but that’s a tough ask, especially when McDavid was able to do so much damage at even strength as is.

What really helps is that Stuart Skinner seems to be reversing the narrative. He’s never gonna be a great goaltender, but like Georgiev, Rantaa, Binnington, etc — sometimes you just need the right stretch. This wasn’t just a goalie catching breaks. He looked good.

Darnell Nurse with David Desharnais didn’t have a great night, but they were a step above Nurse with Cody Ceci, which also probably gives the Oiler some confidence. You do have to wonder if it’s only a matter of time until Skinner becomes Skinner, not to mention, the return of Hintz. It’s a good win for Edmonton. But momentum is fickle in the playoffs, and Dallas is nothing if not good at basically just ignoring it.