2025 Report Card: Roope Hintz' season was much more enigmatic than you think

What exactly is going on?

One sentence summary

Dallas’ number one center is no longer Dallas’ number one center.

A few good stats

• Cap: $8.45 million (Year 3 of 8)

• GP: 76

• Goals: 28

• Assists: 39

• Points: 67

• Postseason: 17 GP — 6 goals, 6 assists — 12 points

• xSPAR: 3.7 extra points in the standings

Don’t know what you’re looking at and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR).

Hintz went from Dallas’ second most-used forward to sixth when all was said and done. We’ll get into the weeds of what I think is going with this card because it definitely looks confusing on the surface. Given Hintz’ reputation and forum for the Selke committee, the takeaway this season in terms of scoring impact was simple: great offense, bad defense.

That, of course, has never been the case. Compared to his three-season average, this past season is definitely an aberration.

But is there more to it than that? Can we unravel this mystery? I think so. So today is gonna be a bit more about sleuthing than recapping.

Thematically appropriate highlight

This goal felt like a true sign of life, coming from a forward Dallas needed more from. Because of that, it feels fitting — Hintz was very good this year. Just not good enough by his standards.

Grade: A (strong) B-

I have no idea what grade to give Hintz, really. If he had played a full 82 games, we’re probably talking about four straight seasons with at least 30 goals. That’s incredible consistency on the goal-scoring front. Overall, however, just as with Mikko Rantanen and Tyler Seguin; something about Hintz’ two seasons feels a little incomplete. Not only did injuries slow him down in the regular season, but Darnell Nurse’s Should-Have-Been game misconduct derailed his postseason too. Ignore the games missed. His injury sounded like truly heinous work.

I don’t know where that leaves us. For years, Hintz has been the backbone of Dallas’ center depth. With gamebreaking speed — enough to almost catch Connor McDavid on an abrupt backcheck — he has and continues to be one of the Stars’ highest impact forwards. He’s also been a defensive rock in tough minutes. And yet this season felt like a step back.

A digression: unpacking this sudden “decline”

I didn’t feel like I noticed anything strange or dramatic about Hintz’ lack of defensive impact. Nonetheless, I’d like to humor the numbers for a second. Let’s consider the concept of a forward’s decline in general. If Hintz were declining — which we’d expect from a 28-year old to begin with if we’re being honest with ourselves — what would it look like? Would his shooting, passing, and overall chance creation dip? (More cribbing from Louis Boulet. Yes, we’ll have a proper introduction for his work in due time.)

Yes. And it looks like it did.

But what about his defensive metrics? Would his defense in the neutral zone, chance suppression, and forechecking pressure/dump-in recoveries/takeaways (or checking as defined by Louis Boulet) take a dip?

Yes. And indeed they did.

What about his ability to enter (offense) and exit (defense) the zone with possession, and overall neutral zone efficiency?

With the exception of his attack entries, they did.

So what does this all mean? That the sky is falling on Dallas’ Finnish pivot? That the stats are juiced the wrong way? That the math needs “context.” First off, I think 2024-2025 was super strange for a lot of reasons. I don’t mean to be obnoxious about a constant point, but sometimes I feel like being obnoxious is the only way to go: goaltending and defense are not synonymous. At even-strength, Dallas was 22nd in shot quality allowed per 60. Team defense wasn’t just average or middling this year under Pete DeBoer — it was actively bad.

Because of that, a lot of top players had poor defensive — or worse than their previous year — metrics, Jason Robertson included. Some of that is due to the Miro Heiskanen injury, although not all. Second, the top line had a strange year on its own. Struggling to find that complimentary piece on the right wing in place of Joe Pavelski, it was an erratic season for not just Hintz and Robertson, but everyone who played next to them. Added up, there’s a reasonable explanation for the dip: Dallas was a heavily injured team this season to compound the tough early start for the top line.

One thing worth noting, however, is that I don’t believe this is just noise. With Wyatt Johnston picking up more shifts versus elite competition per PuckIQ, Hintz’ quality of competition actually went down. So the typical refrain — well he played tough competition — doesn’t really fly here. Beyond that, his defensive metrics were strong in previous seasons versus elite competition. Moreover, the team’s lack of defense shouldn’t totally explain (although certainly some) his dramatic drop in chance creation. Hintz’ shooting percentage was his second-best career mark. However, his shot volume per 60 was the second-worst mark of his career.

I don’t believe this is a case of Analytics Wrong, nor Analytics Right. But I do wonder if it’s a case of righter and wronger. Keep in mind, that doesn’t make the end result a weak player. On the contrary, I think we take for granted just how special Hintz was during those Pavelski years. So a decline doesn’t mean the end of the world. In addition, there’s the Gulutzan factor, and whatever new chemistries may arise. Nonetheless, it’s worthy of discussion IMO.

As we were

We could be here all day trying to unpack what happened. But for now, we look ahead. Hintz’ scheduled rating is still a net positive.

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model (sG).

Better yet, while there’s some potential noise at even-strength, this is still a player that adds a lot of value on special teams.

Plus: if this dip holds true, and Hintz simply becomes the defacto second-line center, which he already functionally is — is that even a problem?

Nope. In fact, he’s exactly where he probably should be.

A lot of this poses various questions. Is Hintz really the second-line center going forward? That’s hard to say. That’ll be up to Gulutzan. Is Johnston ready to take over that spot? I think Johnston did well (report card on him tomorrow!), but the pace really caught up to him. Again, however, this will be up to Gulutzan.

Then there’s the linemate factor. Honestly, I just need to log off. But Louis Boulet’s roster builder is too much fun, and I enjoy seeing in mathematical form — however theoretical — the active (or not) chemistry projected for different lines.

The top line projects to be the best iteration, but I’m not a huge fan personally. We had a limited sample in the regular season where the lack of speed looked a little problematic. More than that, though, Dallas’ vaunted depth is either gonna rely on three strong lines again, or two stacked ones. Once again, the Gulutzan factor will be key here.

There’s a lot of mystery surrounding Hintz going into next season. Hopefully there’s a lot less when all is said and done.