2025 Report Card: Tyler Seguin and the art of maximum effort

No hips. No problem.

One-sentence summary

He wasn’t quite the Rabbit of Caerbannog but he sure as hell tried to be.

A few good stats

• Cap: $12 million (Year 1 of 8)

• GP: 20

• Goals: 9

• Assists: 12

• Points: 21

• Postseason: 18 GP — 4 goals, 4 assists — 8 points

• xSPAR: .9 extra points in the standings

Don’t know what you’re looking at and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR).

With only 20 regular season games to work with, we don’t have much to assess from. We’ll get into the broad strokes in a bit. For now, Seguin’s shift-to-shift impact on goals rated great in his brief regular season stint. Offense, defense, power play — Seguin found every vial of mana from the hockey gods to accomplish what he did. Seguin’s numbers in terms of impact on goals — both observed and expected — falls in line with the last three years.

Even as a shell of his former self, it’s kind of crazy how effective Seguin is on offense (and what a solid job he’s doing on the penalty kill). On most nights, it’s hard to recognize the old Seguin. The speed, the shot, the puck control. Elements of who he once was show up every now and then, but he continues to find efficiencies even in their absence. For funsies, I thought looking at his goal impacts his first year with Dallas would highlight just how special he was in his prime.

Literally off-the-charts level stuff on offense. His body may be far-removed from his prime, but Seguin’s will burns hotter than ever.

Thematically-appropriate highlight

This is what I’m talking about. While Seguin’s production from an unsustainable PPG rate in the regular season predictably dropped in the playoffs, he was still a mad man. Again, it’s bonkers how he was able to conjure up moments like this, not just before his hip surgery — but especially after. I can’t speak to what we were denied had he been healthier in his post-peak years, but I’m certain of one thing: his Give A Damn levels have never been higher. Oh what the hell, let’s remember a another one.

Grade: (A blue-collar) A+

At the end of the day, Seguin played almost as many playoff games as he did regular season games. Because of that, it’s hard to know what to make of…really, anything.

As with the previous seasons, Seguin has experienced something of a second wind in general. Paired with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, the trio, while having a few warts that are often glossed over, has nonetheless been a production boon for each respective player. Sure, Duchene was and is the primary mover. But Seguin had no hips to pull weight from, and still somehow managed.

All of this makes Seguin’s future murky. For the second time in five years, Seguin has had season-ending surgery. He hasn’t played a full season since 2019¹. Next year, he’ll be 34. While another season-ending surgery is unlikely, it’s not all that morbid to ponder the toll the game takes. Alex Pietrangelo is 35, and functionally retired. I don’t believe things will get worse for Seguin, but I also don’t see them getting better. I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider a world where Seguin ends up on Robidas island. Morbid or not, I just want what’s best for Seguin. I have zero interest in watching him destroy his legs just to chase a Cup.

Having said all that, we’re not there yet. On the contrary. Seguin is expected to rate as a very above average forward per Micah’s model.

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model (sG).

While his playmaking is more or less absent (see the Setting number there in the middle — explainer card here), Dallas is generating a lot of shots, and a lot of shots in high danger areas when he’s on the ice. In terms of expected shift-to-shift rating, let’s look at how he compares to his fellow middle sixers.

That’s a hell of a rating.

But what now? What does a full season with Seguin look like? Does Glen Gulutzan keep the Duchene-Seguin connection? Do Seguin and Jamie Benn reunite? Does Seguin fall into more of a support role? Beyond just making sure he stays relatively healthy, Seguin’s role with the team remains as much of a question mark as his body’s durability. Since all this feels a little too grimdark — overly focusing on Seguin’s health, and long term outlook — let’s focus on something fun.

Statistically speaking, what line makes the most sense? Here we’re referring to Louis Boulet’s work with identifying chemistries via fancy math (or SPAR in this case). This is just theorycrafting, mind you, but I figured it’d be fun.

The most obvious line also seems like the best one: with Benn taking Marchment’s spot on that third line. Statistically, it checks out, as they project to be worth almost an extra six wins (or close to 12 points in the standings). This makes sense given Duchene and Seguin’s prior connection, and the fact that Benn, for all of his faults, is capable offensively.

However, if Duchene goes into the top six, say next to Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen for example, then the other options look appealing, with Sam Steel rating out as a capable replacement for Marchment. He won’t add a goal-scoring touch, but he will add something I could see a line with Benn having trouble with: namely defense. All three have historically generated a lot of shot quality at the cost of giving quite a bit back the other way. If Mavrik Bourque ends up in the bottom six instead of next to Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, Seguin could be an option in the top six. It doesn’t project to be the most valuable trio, so Glen Gulutzan’s work is really cut out for him as far as identifying chemistry.

It’s hard to imagine Duchene with Seguin as anything but the first option. Looking at Seguin’s shooting, passing, and raw chances — there’s a very noticeable uptick in all three since the inclusion of the former Avalanche pivot.

While I don’t believe Seguin would have ever actually reached that point pace he was on — his 19 percent shooting percentage during his regular season cameo was a career high, and would have absolutely gone down — it’s still crazy to consider that there’s a parallel universe where Seguin has a career year at age 33. That speaks less to a reward from the hockey gods, and more towards just how hard Seguin continues to work.

While his grade should be incomplete, I think an A+ is appropriate. He produced in the regular season, and following a five-month injury layoff, still put in yeoman’s work, including in the Edmonton series, where he was one of only two forwards that showed up and made a significant impact; the only who had an excuse to disappear versus the Oilers, and he didn’t.

Here’s to hoping he has two more seasons like the previous two. He may not be the team’s captain. But he played like one even everything else in victory green crumbled.

1. A little misleading granted, since he did play 81 games three years ago.