Another 32 Thoughts: The 2023-2024 Dallas Stars Preview Edition
What's in store for what many are calling THE year for the Dallas Stars?
We’ve seen the data, and we’ve fastened our seatbelts. The 2023-2024 season is upon us, and boy is set to be a doozy. For what feels like the first time in a very long time, the Stars represent the class of the league. You already know Dom’s model favors them. But did you know that Micah Blake McCurdy’s model also has them as the top team in the Central? Did you know that Down Goes Brown has them winning the Cup?
That said, you know how this works. Once the pucks start flying, the odds and models go out the window. This is not to say that everything we’ve discussed and analyzed is unimportant. On the contrary, we have more context than ever to talk about this Dallas team intelligently, and diligently. But there is no such thing as mathematical certitude. That could either play out in less dramatic ways, like losing tomorrow’s opener to the Blues, or it could be sportstragic: like Dallas losing in the first round of the playoffs.
What follows will be 32 thoughts covering virtually every aspect of the 2023-2024 Dallas Stars roster. The list follows a very loose outline of Most Important to Least Important items, but if what everyone and their models are saying is true, then no such — levels of importance — thing exists.
1. Jim Nill’s loyalty: the ultimate x-factor.
This is it. This season is the culmination of his life’s work. Nill can truly call this roster his. It’s all his, and it’s all good. But it’s not perfect. If anything defines this season it’ll be how Nill reacts to injuries, performances, and the deadline. Does Nill feel like he’s built a team that can truly win, or does he feel like he’s built a team that will win?
2. Jason Robertson’s next level. Does he have one?
Robertson left earth last year.
It’s hard to believe he has another level. Does he score another 100+ points? I don’t think so, but I also don’t really give a damn either. There’s a saying in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu that goes ‘position before submission.’ Same thing in hockey: performance before production. If Robertson only scores 80 points but rounds out areas of his game to be even more potent on the rush, or in his own zone, I’m way more stoked about that development than whether he can break his own records. And there’s some evidence that he might.
His shot assists went ballistic; a huge upgrade from his previous year (the star to the right of Seguin’s 2016-2017 year). Last season was a great example of the two coming together. Robertson was noticeably faster last year. With a quicker first-step, and an upgrade in stride power, don’t be surprised if his performance reaches new heights (production be damned).
3. Roope Hintz just needs to stay healthy.
We can talk endlessly about how underrated Hintz is, but to me the real question is whether or not he can stay healthy. I’m tired of hearing about players playing through injuries, especially during the regular season. I don’t care how many Don Cherry Bobbleheads are offended whenever an old tradition is broken: protect that man at all costs even if it means protecting him from himself.
4. It’s the Final Round of Joe Pavelski versus Father Time.
I’ve talked about Pavelski already. I don’t find this discussion particularly interesting. Pavelski will do Pavelski things this season. And when he stays neck and neck with his previous career highs in the twilight of his career, people will make a few Chuck Norris-level jokes, and it’s whatever. To me the most interesting part about Pavelski’s battle with Father Time is how his decline manifests. Playing with Hintz and Robertson will never allow him to bottom out. The real question is how will we notice if it does?
5. Miro Heiskanen’s search for the Norris ends (?).
This is another one of those Who Cares debates for me. Part of what leaves me cold when people want to compare Heiskanen to Charlie McAvoy, or Adam Fox, or Cale Makar, or Rasmus Dahlin is three things:
the people debating are largely only knowledgeable about one player more than the others
different teams with different linemates create different contexts
(and most importantly) who cares about the Norris when you can win the Cup instead?
It’s the same reason I couldn’t bring myself to care about Jason Robertson vs. Kirill Kaprizov for the Calder, or Wyatt Johnston vs. Matty Beniers. Beyond that, I’m a hockey fan, first and foremost. I love watching Dahlin’s immaculate puck handling, and three-zone assertiveness. I love watching McAvoy’s unique blend of intelligence and brawling physicality, and I love Fox’s ring generalship, to borrow a boxing phrase. Unless we’re talking about stoonads like Marcus Foligno or Pat Maroon, then you’re not gonna hear me badmouth these players. Right now the only matchup that’s interesting to me is Heiskanen versus Suter.
6. Jake Oettinger has something to prove. As does Pete DeBoer, for that matter.
Jake Oettinger wasn’t his usual self once the postseason hit. He vacillated between looking like the number one goalie we’ve come to know and meme, and looking like a career backup. Sure, he was never Anders Lindback levels of rancid (anyone remember this game?) but there was no consistency. Why? Well you’ve already read Sean Shapiro’s piece at D Magazine and if not here it is. Micah Blake McCurdy has an effective little chart to put Oettinger’s workload into context.
Only five other goaltenders played as much as Oettinger, and one of them made it to or past the first round. Who the hell cares if Dallas drops a game or two trying to learn more about Remi Poirier or Matt Murray? Are you starting to see why the logic of “win now” is so morally depraved beyond all human recognition? Teams will do so much to win now, they’re willing to lose later instead and learn jackshit in the process. I get that there’s a political element to this. Every win keeps the head coach employed. Every start keeps Oettinger in the spotlight, and Nill knows fans want to see him when they pay tickets for a game. However, this is what oversight is for. Dallas can’t afford to make the same mistake.
7. Wyatt Johnston’s sophomore slump ain’t happening, folks.
I’ve already talked about this in depth, so I won’t repeat myself here. Or here. In fact, it finally happened. I am sick of writing about Johnston. (Well, for now.)
8. Why Thomas Harley’s importance will come down to minutes.
Harley is the real deal. But just because you’re good doesn’t make you the truth. Granted, I believe Harley is that. But who’s he playing with? How many minutes is he getting? Is he being ignored on the power play? Is he being challenged on the penalty kill? What forward trio is he frequently paired with? Harley turning into Dallas’ other number one defender will be a big deal if (or when) it happens.
I’ve heard it said that one of the reasons why Harley and Lundkvist don’t play on the power play is because it’s important not to “give them too much.” [Record scratch] So Harley and Lundkvist, who have spent their entire major/junior careers profiling as offensive defensemen won’t be able to handle an extra minute on the second power play unit? You mean to tell me that being on the man advantage puts them at some sort of metaphysical risk instead of further easing them into their future roles, while helping leverage and gain experience with their already-prevalent strengths? You mean to tell me that having Ryan Suter on the second unit helps Dallas “win now” instead?
GTFO. Great teams can still make bad decisions (Vegas and Dadonov anyone?). Not having Harley or Lundkvist on the 2nd unit over Suter is a bad decision.
9. Why I’m a little pessimistic about Nils Lundkvist’s future.
Let’s face it. The history of bottom-pairing puck movers getting sidewalked is quite rich. Julius Honka, Sean Durzi, Travis Dermott, Zac Jones, Cam York, Ty Smith, Tony DeAngelo, Ethan Bear, Timothy Liljegren, Shayne Gostisbehere. Granted, some of these players have carved out careers for themselves. I personally like Lundkvist’s game; he has a genuinely unique ability from the point that Dallas would be wise to take advantage of. But who’s gonna be the first to go if Lian Bichsel suddenly taps into his offense and starts racking up points? Unlike Suter, Lundkvist can’t get away with game-losing turnovers.
10. Watching what Jamie Benn’s regression looks like.
Benn’s production will go down. I know fans don’t like to hear that. Either because they don’t want to, don’t believe it, or don’t think the math checks out. Which is fine. To me it’s less about taking the wind out of people’s sails, and more about getting people away from using lameduck markers for analysis. Benn won’t score as much, but will he still have an impact?
His expected Wins Above Replacement, although an imperfect stat, gives us a better measure of broad performance. And it bodes modestly well.
Seems like Bowness was to blame. Which kind of makes sense. I never actually saw Benn as a power forward by nature. Milan Lucic and Josh Anderson are power forwards. Benn was and is way more nuanced, which is why having him crash and bang his way through lanes affected his bottom line.
11. The Seguinlightenment begins.
I’m just gonna leave my D Magazine piece here. It’s happening folks. It may not look pretty. But it’s happening.
12. Matt Duchene: savior, or support?
I think the perception of Duchene’s importance is lowered by the fact that he’s replacing Max Domi, which neglects Domi’s important to begin with: Seguin and Marchment NEEDED someone to tie it all together. We never really got to see what Marchment-Seguin-Capable Top Six Forward looked like, even after we got it thanks to injuries. As important as Duchene is, it’s less about what he can do, and more about how he can help those two. I’m optimistic because I think Duchene is a really good player. However, I’m skeptical that a Marchment-Seguin-Duchene line eventually forms the backbone of a strong possession line. They’ll be dangerous. But can they be dependable?
13. Mason Marchment: a top six mystery wrapped in an enigma inside of a riddle.
Having had time to reflect on my video analysis of Marchment, I think I’m a little more hopeful, for several reasons.
The obvious: it was a tough year for the guy for off-ice reasons.
Regression works both ways.
If the Marchment-Seguin-Duchene line connects, Duchene’s speed and consistency off the rush will combo extremely well with Marchment’s ability to attack out in the open. It’s an unlikely chemistry, but Marchment is an unlikely player.
Lastly, Patrick Bacon’s WAR data really likes his shot and goal impacts.
I didn’t notice anything terribly different during the preseason other than that Marchment’s puck control really stands out against lesser rosters. That’s not an insult; just a testament to how much speed that quality control of the puck can add to your game even if you’re slower than most.
14. At $5.8 million per year, there’s no reason to talk about Esa Lindell with kids gloves.
It’s high time we watch Lindell carefully so that his next contract doesn’t become the same mistake as his first contract. It’s not about money. It’s about value added. The future of the left side belongs to Heiskanen, Harley, and Bichsel. Well…with one of them playing on their offside, granted. That’s not to say I don’t think Lindell can contribute, but seeing how he performs without Prime Klingberg has been a bit of an eye opener. Dallas needs more three-zone defenders, not less. Lindell screws with the future math in more ways than one. Let’s hope he bounces back because so far, the fact that a $5.8 million player fades into a blob of Heiskanen’s Support Team is more than a little concerning.
15. Jani Hakanpaa: a top four defender in nowhere but Dallas.
I was a big fan of Hakanpaa going into free agency. He was nothing special, but for a bottom pairing defensemen who could be a Stephen Johns facsimile, he seemed perfect. Except in Dallas, he’s not the depth defender he was in Carolina. He’s a fixture in the top four, playing way out of his depth. Most fans seem okay with Harley-Hakanpaa and Lindell-Lundkvist as the next four below the Heiskanen pair. That’s probably for the best. However, if Hakanpaa is still expected to play like a top four defender, then fans might be in for a rude awakening.
16. A quick word about Ryan Suter, and why the drama might be over sooner than we think.
My reason for buying out Suter over the summer was simple: to get ahead of his continued decline. Suter was fine his first year in Dallas. He was mediocre in his second year, and it never got better. If Suter’s decline continues, I don’t think even his strongest loyalists (read: Dallas personnel) will be able to pretend like it’s not happening.
17. What does Dallas really have with Evgenii Dadonov?
I feel like we’ve gotten ahead of ourselves. Dadonov had good chemistry with Benn and Johnston, forming one of more potent secondary scoring lines. But who is he on his own? What’s he look like if he’s not on that line? What’s he look like if he starts to slow down? Currently, he projects as the guy you know him as: a rush-oriented playmaker.
However, he doesn’t offer much else. I’ll share a personal hot take: I don’t think Dallas needed to bring him back. Yes, I know he had chemistry with Benn and Johnston. But what’s with this Can’t Hardly Wait mindset? He had chemistry with two talented players, and that makes him their soulmate or something? Domi had chemistry with everyone; doesn’t mean Dallas was wrong to choose Duchene instead. Dadonov only ended up in Dallas because Montreal was willing to roll the dice on Denis Gurianov. I’m not trying to downplay Dadonov’s presence, or the offensive chemistry he has with Johnston. And sure, there’s a little jealousy over the player I wanted getting taken by Edmonton instead (Connor Brown). But I don’t think we have as clear a picture on Dadonov as fans think. This is a player whose career was more or less resurrected by Benn and Johnston. I’m glad he’s found a new home, but there’s still more to learn, and not much time.
18. Is Sam Steel gonna be a fourth line staple, a fourth line rotation, or potentially something else?
I got the impression during the preseason that Steel is gonna be on the fourth line until he loses his spot. He was used on the power play, and the penalty kill. Steel looks like the player I’ve seen thus far: he plays a hardnosed game despite his playmaking profile in juniors. It creates the illusion that he can do more without necessarily being capable of doing so, but all the same — he’s a good player to have on your fourth line, and the kind of depth forward Dallas went years going without; a depth forward capable of playing up the lineup rather than only down.
19. Craig Smith is not quite the next Patrick Eaves, but he damn sure isn’t the next Comeningliano either.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: you don’t need defensive forwards in your bottom six. Playing limited minutes means defensive ability is less likely to have an impact, and that’s exactly how Seattle nearly took down two giants in the West (Colorado, and almost Dallas). In fact, I have to wonder if the Seattle series isn’t what spooked Nill and Co. into adding offense into the fourth line. The Kraken didn’t just come close to beating Dallas; it’s possible they actually win with McCann to start the series. That’s not to say I believe Seattle was the better team last season. But they were certainly the hotter team. And there were times when the Stars looked outmatched, especially on the forecheck. So yea: I really dug the Smith signing. Beyond being a 20-goal scorer, he’s had strong shot impacts wherever he’s gone. Of course, the asterisk is that he’s on his inevitable downward trajectory. Nonetheless, he doesn’t need to be his former self. He just needs to be the bones of his former self.
20. Ty Dellandrea: the forgotten 1st rounder.
Dellandrea was two less games in 2021 and two more points in 2023 of being a 30-point rookie. And yet he enters this season as nothing more than a depth piece. Am I the only one who thinks this is nuts?
21. Overpriced, but is he (Radek Faksa) obsolete?
If he’s not the highest paid fourth line center in the NHL, he’s damn near close. I suppose the real question is whether or not a new-look fourth line can recreate some of that Roussel-Hemsky magic. Will it be Steel and Smith, or Dellandrea and Smith? Or perhaps even Smith-Faksa-Stankoven?
22. Scott Wedgewood’s health + Dallas’ confidence = a Better Oettinger.
Wedgewood looked mostly solid in the preseason despite Pat Maroon falling on top of him. There’s not much to Wedgewood’s story other than that Dallas needs to give him more games if he’s healthy and if he’s not…that leads us to thought #23.
23. Dallas doesn’t need to have faith in Remi Porier and Matt Murray. They just need to get out of their own head.
Poirier looked good at Traverse City. EPRinkside’s goalie scout, Greg Balloch, seems to believe there’s something there in Murray. Whatever the case, Dallas can’t shit their pants at the thought of playing them. 82 games is a lot. Stop pretending like one or two games involving a mystery box will suddenly hang everything in the balance.
24. How long until Logan Stankoven makes his debut?
I could see this being a tough year for Stankoven fans. I think he’s NHL ready. And all throughout training camp, and the preseason he looked the part. But Dallas doesn’t have a spot for him either now or in the future. If Stankoven makes it, it’ll be because disaster struck on the injury front. Don’t be surprised if he manages to score in the NHL and STILL gets sent back down. A lot of names are coming off the list next year between Duchene, Smith, and Pavelski.
25. How long until Lian Bichsel makes his debut?
Bichsel’s path to the NHL is a lot easier. There are a number of ways to open the floodgates: injuries, Lundkvist struggling, Suter reenacting Game 2 vs. Vegas night after night, and him just dominating the AHL. He’s the goods, people.
26. How long until Mavrik Bourque makes his debut?
Bourque has the longest road of any prospect. His game is more sensitive to who his linemates are, and he’s playing from a position of strength. If Bourque comes out guns blazing, however, you can begin setting his lineup spot to an egg timer once next season begins.
27. Pete DeBoer can still improve this team.
I talked about his role here, but Dallas’ only weakness is that they can roll four forward lines, but not all three defense pairs. Carefully curating the defensive minutes will be the best way to mitigate their flaws.
28. Whatever worked for the Penalty Kill last year doesn’t need to change.
Dallas was top five in every critical category: save percentage, shot attempts against per 60, shot quality allowed per 60. Unless you think Luke Glendening was the key to that, expect them to once again be one of the best shorthanded teams in the league.
29. Whatever the hockey gods didn’t like about Dallas’ Power Play, expect that to change; oh and the second unit.
Similar story. The Stars were 4th in shot attempts per hour of PP time, and third in shot quality generated. They were 11th in shooting percentage, however. As long as they don’t punt chances by keeping Suter on the second unit, they’ll be fine.
30. Changes to the system will depend on the blueline structure.
I’ve already written about DeBoer’s system. For the most part, Dallas operates as designed. However, it’s their breakouts that often operate at odds with the design thanks to Lindell, Hakanpaa, and Suter. Like I keep saying; Harley is the biggest key to changing this dynamic.
31. Any other prospects to keep tabs on?
Two of Dallas’ best prospects weren’t at Traverse City: Aram Minnetian and Ayrton Martino. You better believe I’ll be paying attention to their development.
32. Why should I subscribe to the Stars Stack?
Because this place is bumping. In fact, how the hell did you make it all the way down here if you’re not subscribed?!
Write one more quick Wyatt article. For old time's sake.
still going
21. Faksa is the Oline version of Esa. The complaints are about the Cap hit, not the player.
22. Oetter can't play back to backs and needs to keep his games started <60
23. Again, Zamboni drivers can win games. If your #3 scares you that much, the issue might be your defense.
24&26 One of the AHLers will get to finish the season with the big club. At game 60 or so, Stank and Bourque will show up. It could be Blumel too, but he'd pull a Harley because unlike gravity, once he goes up he can't go back down.
25. Only question with Lian is who else plays on the right. Also, why couldn't that be Esa?
27. PDB, make Suter show the rest of us what you seem to see in him. Or he'll show you what we see in him.
30. Nils clicking may be the most important piece in this team. If that happens the team is building and flowing. If it doesn't, then they are just coving a gaping hole.