Armchair GM Mode: Let's talk about a theoretical Star, Brock Nelson

Can the 33-year old pivot be the answer?

In case you haven’t heard, Jim Nill is ready to be the latest LTIR “villain.”¹ He’s going for it. That’s what Jeff Marek, now at DailyFaceoff, confirmed on Monday, speculating that a deal will likely materialize after the 4 Nations Face-Off.

I’ll talk about the name Marek mentions — Mathieu Olivier — at some point, but I also might not, since Olivier is not a very good player, and chances are, Dallas is interested in a very good player instead of a bad one. So let’s focus on a good one: Brock Nelson.

And let’s start with the Islanders as a group (skip to the heading if you just want to focus on the player). As usual, they’re in the mushy middle hyperspace, but in a way that’s very specific. Over the last two years, no team has collected more loser points (32) than the New York Islanders thanks to strong goaltending, and pitiful offense. They’ve also been brutalized in the injury department and are currently without Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech, Anthony Duclair, and Scott Mayfield. In other words, the Islanders have and don’t have incentive to trade Nelson.

There are lot of moving parts to a theoretical deal between these teams. The Islanders are one spot out of a playoff spot despite missing a very meaningful chunk of their roster, and likely deserve better. If Nill waits until after the 4 Nations Face-Off, as Marek contends, it’s entirely possible that the Islanders are in a playoff spo by thent. Even for Long Island doomers who joke that Nelson’s aging visage reflects what being an Islanders fan does to you, consider the teams standing in their way: the burning dumpster fire in front (Rangers), the Tortorella overachievers behind you (Flyers), and Soon To Be Last further down (Penguins). Inexplicably, New York’s stable mediocrity is working for them.

The wisdom of “anything can happen” once you’re in the playoffs — that’s biscuits and gravy level thickness of sarcasm² — has a powerful allure, so even though the Islanders could risk losing Nelson for nothing as a UFA at the end of the season despite being a team that has no chance of winning a Cup and needs to get young given their depleted assets (admittedly better with the emergence of Calder candidate Maxim Tsyplakov, and having Cole Eiserman fall to them at the 2024 draft), that’s probably what Lou Lamoriello will do because that’s what most teams do: win now, wreck the future later.

All that said, it’s still early. Nelson costs $6 million against the cap, which means the Stars would have room to add a top six forward, and significant defensive help very similar to what Vegas did with Mark Stone’s money when they added Noah Hanifan and Tomáš Hertl. Is Nelson that kind of impact player?

Profiling Nelson: goals, goals, goals!

Yes. Over the last five seasons, Nelson is top 30 in goals per 60, above Artemi Panarin, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Pettersson.

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Nelson has been a goal-scoring machine over the last two seasons. And while his finishing rate is slowing down this year (dotted line), he’s still incredibly dangerous; more dangerous than 97 percent of his peers when it comes to shooting. Nelson is legitimately underrated, and not just in a “would be talked about more in a bigger market” way.

He’s also quite adept in transition thanks to sneaky speed. I’ve never thought of Nelson as fast (and he really isn’t IMO), but the NHL EDGE data classifies him as a modest speedster, which Dallas could use more of.

However, the big concern is that he’s old, and isn’t defensively responsible. This is a valid argument, and also kind of funny given who he’s potentially replacing. Dallas wanted a Seguin replacement, right? Well that describes Seguin pretty well over the last several years.

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The catch

While Nelson has never been defensively responsible, his shift to shift rating is kind of all over the place. In fact, Micah Blake McCurdy’s sG rating for Nelson is all over the map.

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Granted, there’s a clear pattern: outside of his production, he’s been a plus, but it wasn’t until later in his career that he became a true top six player in terms of shift to shift impact. Interestingly, while he’s played with Anders Lee pretty much his whole career, it was chemistry with Anthony Beauvillier that helped him reach his peak.

Basically, it’s impossible to predict what Nelson would look like outside of Long Island. After all, the Islanders have been an odd team throughout his tenure. When they should have been bad after losing John Tavares, they got good, or good-ish. Now that they’re middling again, it feels like they’re either on the cusp of finally bottoming out, or will double down on their status as a Maybe Playoffs. contender One thing that will likely not wane is Nelson’s goal-scoring ability. He’s been defying the percentage gods his entire career.

But does it make sense for Dallas?

Yes and no.

Nelson would obviously help the Stars. While he’s not a well-rounded player, he is an impactful player, and would help Dallas where it has struggled: finishing. His modest, but effective transition ability breaking into opponent’s zones is also something the Stars could use, since they lack pace on the rush. There’s also the following, most critical piece of all: Nelson is something of a red-light performer. In the last four seasons in which he’s played in the postseason, he’s 19th in goal-scoring per game (1.24), ranking above even Joe Pavelski and Connor McDavid. So if Dallas wants a good player who can come up clutch in a season they’re pushing their chips in, then Nelson fits that bill.

If everything checks out for the year, then what’s the catch? Again, this goes back to my personal assumption — that should Seguin return in time, it’s hard to believe he’ll be the same player. In that scenario, and in the context of Dallas trying to win a Cup, then Nelson has to be more than a loose facsimile. He has to be a genuine upgrade; or failing that, provide Dallas with a different dimension and/or dimension they’re lacking.

The other piece is what Dallas would have to give up. It likely wouldn’t be anything massive. Nelson is on pace for 47 points through a full season, so hardly groundbreaking. Still, why not give up premium assets for something bigger, like a hockey trade?

I like Nelson as a player, personally. Behind Brad Marchand, Nelson is probably the best forward on the trade board, at least for now. But I can’t help but be suspicious of his late-blooming boost of goal scoring. It’s certainly a credit to him that he achieved career highs in his 30s, but also a sign of potential noise; noise that, it should be pointed out, would appear to have a muzzle on it. Would a move to Dallas return him to his fleeting state of eliteishness?

1. I know some Stars fans won’t like being compared to Vegas, but unlike Reddit, I have no reason to suspect that Mark Stone’s lacerated spleen was any less real than Tyler Seguin’s hip impingement.

2. “Anything can happen” ≠ “anyone can win"