Breakfast Salvos: Final Roster Cuts, Dallas Gets Mathematic Love From HockeyViz, and Previewing the West

No surprises for the final 24.

The week before the season is officially underway is always interesting. Teams show their true colors: were they serious about playing that prized prospect, or just gassing up said player by pretending like they were NHL ready? Or maybe I’m just what I’ve always tried to avoid — being cynical. But we’ll get to that in a bit.

There were a lot of unexpected moves over the weekend. Grigori Denisenko (former 2018, 1st rounder) was claimed by Vegas off waivers, only to be put on waivers. I was a big fan of Denisenko his draft year, and wrote about him prior to the draft. Dylan Coghlan, who I think is underrated for a depth defender, was waived by Carolina. Ivan Prosvetov, Denis Gurianov (the DENIS system!), Joel Armia, Wade Allison (who cleared; it was insane nobody picked him up), Caleb Jones, Cale Fleury, Lassi Thomson, and Raphael Lavoie — one of the most stacked waiver list of young talent I’ve ever seen.

That doesn’t mean I think all these players are legit. I just know that I’d happily take a lot of these players over someone like Zack MacEwen. Look at New Jersey. Simon Nemec has four points in four preseasons games, looking like the second overall pick in 2022, but he’s probably gonna lose his roster spot to either Brenden Smith, or Colin Miller. And that brings us to Dallas.

Dallas’ final cuts and the end of two non-eras

I saw some people “complaining” (can I just say how much I hate this word?) about the final cuts. But this was always gonna be the end result. Dallas isn’t about to scratch two of either Craig Smith, Sam Steel, or Ty Dellandrea. And we need to find out about Nils Lundkvist.

We have made the following moves to reduce our #TexasHockey training camp roster to 24:

Loaned to

@TexasStars

Oskar Bäck

Lian Bichsel

Matěj Blümel

Mavrik Bourque

Kyle McDonald

Remi Poirier

Logan Stankoven

Released from PTO:

Jordie Benn

Placed on waivers:

Riley Damiani

For the record, I don’t have a problem with any of this. Unlike other teams leaving real talent on the table, Dallas’ roster is stacked. But here’s my question: was anyone ever realistically in contention to begin with?

This is the part that doesn’t sit well with me. And it’s not necessarily directed at Dallas. It’s a question of bias. Are teams genuinely keeping an open mind about young players earning spots in the lineup? How much of hockey’s traditional ‘youth bias’ is at play during analysis of these preseason games?

Again, I don’t want my words getting twisted. I don’t think Dallas made the wrong decision with their cuts. I’m just not confident that NHL teams on the whole see their own bias clearly enough to analyze its limits. It’s part of why development is always a point of contention for me. Hockey men still see experience as synonymous with value, and youth as synonymous with inefficiency. Lindy Ruff all but used that line when asked about Nemec. If these weren’t the default assumptions, then Nemec would be guaranteed a spot on the roster, and Ryan Suter would be nowhere near the second power play unit. I do think this paradigm is slowly changing. Just not fast enough for my liking.

Sidebar: Kind of sad to see Jordie Benn and Riley Damiani on those lists. Benn (who looked well past his prime in the games I saw) was an underrated player during his stint with Dallas. As for Damiani, even if he doesn’t get claimed (which he won’t), safe to say, he’s AHL-bound for life. For a fifth round pick, it’s anything but an insult to say he earned some legitimate hype for a minute.

Thus Spoke, IneffectiveMath

Micah Blake McCurdy has Dallas winning the Cup. And just like Dom at The Athletic, he has Dallas as the second best team in the NHL.

What’s worth noting here for non-nerds is that Micah’s model, in addition to being different than Dom’s, also factors in coaching. So that’s two different models with Dallas in the top four.

It’s Dallas vs. Colorado in the Central

Why don’t fans fear Colorado? Colorado is one of only two teams in the West that grades out as having a better offense than Dallas per Micah’s rating (the Stars are a +15 for reference, 6th in the entire NHL behind Colorado, Carolina, Edmonton, Florida, and Pittsburgh).

My worry with Colorado is that their worst version of themselves was last year, and they still nearly got through a scalding hot Seattle team. They’ve had rotten injury luck, and now there’s even whispers that Gabriel Landeskog could be back in time for the playoffs? If the guts of Colorado’s Cup-winning team — MacKinnon, Makar, Nichsuhkin, Landeskog, Lehkonen, Toews, and Byram — are ready for the playoffs, that’s a team to fear. This is a team that steamrolled their way to the Cup, and then methodically took apart a Tampa team that (I would argue) hadn’t yet hit a wall. This is still one of the best rush teams of the last 10 years. You also can’t name me a better center-defender combo than Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

I think Dallas matches up well with them, but here’s the thing: come playoff time it’s as much about who you are as it is about who you have left.

Who’s the threat in the Pacific?

Edmonton leads the way because McDavid just operates on an entirely different level. Vegas feels a lot like the St. Louis Blues: a contender that finally made good, but it required their last bullet to do so. Their blueline has some serious miles on them, but other than Paul Cotter, Pavel Dorofeyev, and a potential miracle comeback of Nolan Patrick’s career, I wouldn’t expect much in the way of new faces. One thing I’ll say about Vegas that should keep them competitive is their management. Kelly McCrimmon doesn’t F’ around. When the deadline hits, he’ll be after the big fish, and those big fish will listen.

However, there’s always one team that upsets the established order. I’m not talking about some cheesy “anything can happen” type team. I’m talking a live dog. In this case, the LA Kings. First off, I felt like they gave up too much for Pierre-Luc Dubois. But here’s the thing: he was still the best player in the trade (I’ll never forget him single-handedly beating Toronto in the play-in round). They have one of the most interesting top nines in the league. Kopitar and Danault lead the way defensively, while still having offensive pop. They have snipers (Kaliyev and Kempe), they have transition sorcerers (Fiala), and they have young players who could level up both sides of the puck between Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke (sent back to the minors, but who I could easily see making his way back, as he’s one of hockey’s top prospects).

Not enough people talk about their top four. Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy are two of the more underrated blueliners, which has helped fortify one of the best defenses in the league.

Believe it or not, LA’s defense has only one equal, and they’re tied: with the almighty Carolina Hurricanes. Most teams crumble when they get bad goaltending. LA has played beyond it, and even managed to be a thorn in Edmonton’s side over the last two years in the postseason. Cam Talbot won’t solve their issue, but he’ll be an upgrade. If they ever get legit goaltending, all the pieces are there for them to upset one of the favorites, especially if PLD delivers.

So what’s next? Just the regular season, here at last. I’ll be doing a preview for Wednesday, followed by a postgame podcast on Thursday, and then another piece for Friday: a Texas Stars preview!

Also, be on the lookout for tomorrow’s piece on Tyler Seguin at D Magazine.

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