Dallas Stars: Second-Best Odds to Win the Cup. Too High or Too Low?
That's The Athletic's opinion of Dom's model at least.
I'll admit that although I'm a Dallas Stars fan, I don't write as a fan. I don't experience Stars hockey as a fan either. Being able to step back dispassionately comes natural thanks to my focus on strict analysis even if I don't always reel it in emotionally. That's why I've got mixed emotions about seeing Dallas get validated by high level models telling me that Dallas has active potential to win it all.
On the one hand, I don't want anything to be “jinxed” and thus have to rationalize why the models might be wrong. On the other hand I have to respect the data, ignoring whatever feelings I might have about what I'd prefer to hear.
I saw Dallas win the Cup in 1999 live. Funny thing is that I wasn’t super pumped. I was actually more invested in the 2020 run despite how much Bowness’ system felt like a ruse. Why? Because I remember feeling like 1999 was Dallas' Cup to lose. They were elite the year before. They ran into the Detroit Red Wings, but they did so without Joe Niewendyk. Not only did they return to the playoffs with a healthy Niewendyk, but they added Brett Hull. Except for the Colorado series (admittedly nerve-racking) their fate never seemed in doubt. Conversely, Bowness’ team was one big middle finger to the odds. Still, a middle finger isn’t a gameplan, which is why the odds won in the end.
It's been awhile since I felt like a team deserved a Cup; like nothing was gonna stop them. It’s been awhile since I felt like a team looked capable of asking the hockey gods to stand down, and let them take what’s theirs. Colorado felt like that kind of team in 2022.
Is Dallas that team for 2024?
Sidebar: Before we get started, definitely check out Sean Shapiro’s latest Friday funbag. In it he responds to the faceoff discussion from the other day with a very unique observation (and one I hadn’t considered), but his mailbags are like the new 32 Thoughts, jam-packed with lots of info that can be as broad as they are specific. Truly good stuff.
Chances Favors These Prepared Stars
For those that don’t know how these odds work, every team is given a probability of winning based on the following combination of factors:
For offense:
Goals
Primary assists
Secondary assists
Individual expected goals
Faceoffs
Penalties drawn
Expected goals-for impact at 5-on-5
Goals for impact at 5-on-5
Power-play goal impact
Usage
And for defense
Blocked shots
Faceoffs
Penalties taken
Expected goals against impact at 5-on-5
Goals against impact at 5-on-5
Penalty kill impact
Usage
Then the seasons are simulated over and over again. How many times? 100,000 to be exact. That’s 100,000 simulations to find out which of each factor is more repeatable, and thus, what Dallas’ true value is in statistical terms. What does it all mean? That’s what we’re here to find out.