Counterpoints: Running through Dallas' problems, figuring out which ones are real, and which ones are not

Who even is this team?

On Saturday, you would never know that one team went to the Western Conference Finals twice in the last two years, while the other got bounced in the first round twice in two years. Or you would — you just would have got the teams wrong.

The weekend game was genuinely hard to watch. While Winnipeg is on an impossible heater that belies their true identity (IMO), there’s simply no mistaking that they looked as good as their record indicates. Dallas couldn’t stop the Jets’ forwards from transitioning up ice, nor did the Stars have any answers whatsoever for their passing. Dallas’ otherwise stout penalty killing got rolled up like a tamale. It was a miracle Winnipeg didn’t score a touchdown’s worth of goals. No seriously: they were credited with four posts.

In conjunction with Dallas’ losses to Florida, it’s set up the perfect narrative: maybe this team really isn’t that good. Maybe Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and even Wyatt Johnston aren’t good enough. The Jets game certainly made a strong case.

Dallas literally never had the edge, at any point.

The doomer interpretation is certainly temping based on these outcomes versus the best. But we’re not there yet. And if we are there, 13 games is not the evidence; just intuition. Maybe intuition turns out to be valid, but again — this stretch is not the place.

I can certainly understand where the doomers are coming from. Stars fans rightfully had high hopes for Dallas. Just look at this team’s history, and their roster. But that’s precisely why the hope should persist: not only does this team have the history of a good team, but their core is young, and thus, there’s no reason why this should be viewed as anything other than a bad patch.

However, hope that Dallas is a playoff team and hope that Dallas is a Cup contender are two different things, and I believe that’s the source of the disconnect. With so many different things to criticize, let’s run through them. Sidenote: I’ll be reiterating some of the points made on Spits and Suds.

Miro Heiskanen: elite?

Yes. Very much so. Looking at his shift-to-shift impact, he’s an absolute phenom.

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The issue people have is squaring the two Miros: one is the perception of who a number one defender should be i.e. plays big minutes, plays the toughest competition, runs the power play, contributes to the penalty kill, and breaks open the game. The other is who Miro actually is: a shutdown defensemen with some offensive skills.

This is part of what has always bothered me about how Dallas treats him, which is as the first Miro. Heiskanen is Devon Toews, not Cale Makar. But Dallas treats him like Makar. If they would treat him like Toews, then all of a sudden players like Lyubushkin and Dumba wouldn’t feel so necessary. Instead defenders like Sean Walker and Timothy Liljregren might, because that’s kind of the issue with the Stars blueline, and Heiskanen represents this issue. Heiskanen will be fine because he’s excelling at what makes him great. If you don’t like his production (which will get better), then I’m sorry, because that’s not who he is.

The Power Play

We’ve already had this discussion. The Stars are getting their shots, and they’re getting them in the dirty areas of the ice.

This is an area where I think fans are right for the wrong reasons. The Power Play will get better because two seasons worth of data, where they’ve been very good, is better than 13 games of data, where they’ve been bad (we’ll talk about the playoff stuff when the time comes). However, will certain issues linger? Jack Han has a really good breakdown on the Vegas power play and what makes it so special. One thing I don’t see much is rotation of the interior players in their 1-3-1 setup.

The NHL's best powerplay (right now)

Matt Dumba

I wanted to believe.

I was wrong.

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One thing I’ll say in defense of Dumba is that I’d like to see on the bottom pair — for example, in a perfect world next to someone like Lian Bichsel. Part of the issue with Dumba right now is that he’s overexposed. Per PuckIQ, he’s actually playing the third-most minutes against elite competition, even more than Esa Lindell.

I too liked the concept of Dumba next to Heiskanen, if just to see Heiskanen on his strongside. But it’s clear that Dumba can’t handle these tough minutes. The honeymoon period is definitely over, but I think there’s still value on a bottom pairing. Dumba can’t just be sheltered with less minutes, like he is now. He needs to be sheltered full stop.

Wyatt Johnston

I’m gonna be talking more about Johnston for D magazine tomorrow. For now, I think Dallas needs to leave Johnston with Benn and Stankoven.

Robertson and Hintz are and should be good enough for someone besides Stankoven to mesh well with them.

Robertson and Hintz

So that’s the question. Are they? Again, 13 games people. However, I do think there’s something to the notion that Hintz and Robertson will never be gamebreakers on their own. Like elite versions of Denis Gurianov, they need that third forward to be fully functional. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that as Joe Pavelski declined, so did they. And now that they haven’t found their BFF, the same thing is happening.

However, there is definitely something going on with Robertson, who is taking less shots than ever, across multiple categories.

Conversely, Hintz is actually performing quite well as a shooter, even if the points are coming along. So who’s gonna be that forward to help them?

TFTC: Mavrik Bourque

It’s tough to be Bourque. It’s not his fault he had to follow up the rookie years of Johnston and Stankoven. Well, actually, it is! Since he destroyed the AHL last season. Nonetheless, I don’t have any negative things to say about Bourque. It’s been a perfect storm of obstacles, between the injury he himself had to deal with, and the sporadic injuries to others that have disrupted that was otherwise supposed to be a seamless transition into the top six. So there’s a lot working against him, in addition to his own performance. I don’t think he’s been bad, but early on, he seemed to be fighting the puck.

However, as he’s gotten his legs under him, he’s gotten better and more confident. I think his forechecking has been on point too. He really stood out in that Florida series.

To the point where it felt like he was actively campaigning for any spot that isn’t the fourth line.

That’s where I’m at with Bourque. Early on, he didn’t deserve¹ the opportunity. Now, I think we can say it’s time. He’s spent the majority of his time with Colin Blackwell and Sam Steel, only getting 15 minutes with Benn and Stankoven, and then shuffled around everywhere else.

Granted, I don’t know what the answer is. Try him on the top line at right wing? It’s hard to justify given the lack of speed, and the fact that all three are struggling to establish a rhythm, but Dallas could also bump Duchene to the top line, and see if Bourque can run next to Seguin and Marchment. It’s a worthwhile experiment.

Tomorrow’s piece

As mentioned last week, I’m gonna be doing a few more postgame recaps, so I’ll be doing two paid posts each week this month. Tomorrow I’ll have another prospect rundown, with some film room analysis on Lian Bichsel, Emil Hemming, Antonio Stranges, and Chase Wheatcroft. Unlike last time, however, I’ll do a top 10 ranking, with updates on all of Dallas’ main prospects.

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1. This word lacks logical consistency for every NHL team there is, so just know I hate using that word here, but have to let it slide for now.