Game 2 Stray Observations (Round Two): Winnipeg evens the series with Dallas in a shutout

It's a tied series because of course it is.

Before Game 2, the Dallas Stars could still say they were sitting pretty. Having beaten the Colorado Avalanche in a thrilling seven-game series without key players, with Mikko Rantanen playing out of his mind, some of that spilled over into Game 1 versus Winnipeg — well, mainly just Rantanen — to give Dallas the immediate edge, not just winning the opening salvo, but taking away home-ice from the Jets.

After Game 2, the same could still be said, but with an asterisk. Winnipeg was clearly the better team Friday night. They played strong defensively, their power play scored, and with a fully healthy lineup (along with a few lineup tweaks), they looked every bit the best team in the regular season. Plus: Connor Hellebuyck looked like Connor Hellebuyck.

However, I didn’t think Dallas played all that poorly. While the Jets’ power play broke through, they had to earn every inch. Jake Oettinger looked strong. And Dallas had several outbursts that required Hellebuyck to earn his Vezina reputation. It was a decisive victory, but squint your eyes a little, and it’s easy to envision a parallel universe where the game was tighter than the Stars deserved.

Still, I wouldn’t advise squinting your eyes. The series should be tight all the way through. It’s good that Dallas walked out of Winnipeg tied, effectively taking away home-ice advantage. But that only matters if Dallas can leverage their own home-ice advantage. The Stars don’t need any kind of makeover for Game 3, but as the margins for error get tighter and tighter, you have to wonder what kind of tactical magic and/or lineup changes Pete DeBoer has up his sleeve. Given how much scoring Rantanen has done for the team, it’s time for the rest of Dallas’ forwards to wake up. It’s silly to be critical after just two games, but the signs of life seem to be getting dimmer, even going back to the Colorado series.

Programming note: Where are you all coming from? Just kidding. I love it. As always, whenever I get an influx of new subscribers, I like to be a used car salesman, and talk about the cool writing you get to read if you upgrade to paid. I’m absolutely gonna be breaking down the special teams battle throughout the series, along with Thomas Harley’s defense (it’s really good), and Wyatt Johnston (it’s complicated). But also, I’m just glad you’re here. Which means feel free to join the Discord Channel for Stars talk that’s a little more…unfiltered.

Defending Winnipeg’s PP

This is still the matchup for me. Winnipeg had the top power play unit all season. Dallas’ penalty kill often threatened for the top penalty kill all season. Needless to say, watching both units has been an intoxicating experience. I wouldn’t say either unit really has the advantage thus far, but Winnipeg drew blood finally. While they didn’t score in Game 1, they still found quite a few chances doing what Colorado chose not to: attack down low. Dallas’ aggressive diamond formation naturally leaves room for this; the idea being that the risk to allowing chances down low doesn’t outweigh the benefit of eliminating not only chances from up high, but also the power play itself to get into formation. I’ll be doing some film room on this later, but Winnipeg seems to have the slight edge in terms of the tactical advantage, but needless to say — it’ll be key all series long.

Jamie Benn’s struggles

Benn’s play has always been underneath the microscope. I think it’s unfair, really in any capacity, to grade him on any curve that doesn’t respect his aging power forward’s game. The most evident element of his decline is in his passing. It’s just not there at times. Does that mean we’re ready to call it a career? Of course not. He’s still a very high-event player, for better and for worse.

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Given any reasonable expectation of who he should be, I think he’s been extremely productive. But there’s no doubt about what he needs moving forward, which is just a simpler game. No more no-look passes, or button hooks — just north/south power, to the net. Obviously, I’m no one to be telling what a professional hockey should be doing, but it often seems like he’s doing too much to create rather than just enough to drive play.

Bash brothers

Lian Bichsel and Alex Petrovic have been good all playoffs. They’ve been the only pair to break above even in shot possession. Yes, they’re extremely sheltered and play limited minutes but we’re a long way from Dallas playing five defenders. I think — and this is a stretch — that this is a big reason why Dallas’ blueline depth hasn’t felt as exposed as most analysts predicted; they have Thomas Harley to lift all boats, and then a bottom pair that has not only played strong, skilled hockey, but also — Hulk Smash hockey.

Neutral zone blues

One thing that was abundantly clear all game is that Dallas struggled to get through the neutral zone. With Josh Morrissey back, along with an improved bottom pair of Hadyn Fleury with Colin Miller (far better players than Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn despite being the traditional starters because — size), Winnipeg was much quicker at getting defenders in front of Dallas’ cherryplanners. The Stars did a great job of switching up their attack versus Colorado, going from a rush-centric team to a heavy forecheck. It worked against Colorado because the Avs didn’t have a strong blueline beyond their top pair, but Winnipeg has a strong group from one through six. At even-strength, I’d expect the next game to look better for Dallas, especially with control of the matchups. But this series won’t look that much different. Pete DeBoer is gonna have to once again crack the code.

The Winnipeg perspective

Jets fans are probably feeling good. Between having a healthy lineup (what Stars fan doesn’t wish they could feel the same?), and Connor Hellebuyck looking brilliant, they looked like the team they were all season long. However, it’s the playoffs, which means no fan ever really feels good until they become champions, but still. That was a definitive victory, and the kind the team is capable of. Plus Scott Arniel finally did the thing and has theoretically ditched his less capable third pair for good. Still, Jets won’t be getting the Adam Lowry matchup versus Rantanen and Roope Hintz that they’ve broadly done a good job against, so however good Jets fans are feeling, they could very well see a different dynamic at American Airlines Center. Not to mention, a Miro.