Game 4 Stray Observations (First Round): Colorado beats Dallas 4-0 to tie the series

It's a best-of-three.

Heading into Game 4, the narrative was all about Colorado. The pressure was on Colorado. Dallas hasn’t just been surviving against the Avs without their top forward and top defender. They’ve had Colorado under siege. Yes, you’ve seen the stat about Dallas without the lead. But have you seen both team’s expected goal share? The Stars have earned the series lead, PDO be damned. And Pete DeBoer has been, for my money, the driving force in this series.

But all of that was turned on its head on Saturday. The Avs leveraged their speed in a way they simply hadn’t in each of the previous games. Not only were they using their speed to great effect, but it had a noticeable impact on Dallas’ defenders, who looked tired, played tired, and spent too much time in their own zone.

The series now moves back to Dallas for a best of three. It’s hard to know what to expect. Was this Saturday night the turning point when Jared Bednar adjusted and had his team turning a corner? Have the Stars exhausted their reserves? Have some players hit the proverbial wall? I doubt it.

I think what’s happening is what was always bound to happen: this series would go the distance. Especially with a Dallas team as banged up as they are. There are still players we’re waiting for, which is either a good sign or a bad sign. You couldn’t ask much more from this team (beyond a few things we’ll get to in the strays) on a macro level, IMO. So for now, we wait.

Programming note: We’re on this journey together and you won’t even buy me coffee? “You didn’t buy me one.” Okay, fair. But I promise I would if we hung out. For now, consider letting me put it on my tab. I know a lot of people have subscription fatigue, so don’t feel even a sliver of guilt if you don’t have the money, but there’s a lot of paid content coming up. More film room analysis, and yes — I’m bringing the prospect reports back for paid subscribers. Emil Hemming and Tristan Bertucci have been workhorses for the OHL’s Barrie Colts who just started the Conference Championship with Oshawa this Friday. This bodes well for a Dallas team that has no more futures beyond the existing prospects like Hemming and Bertucci.

That first period

I thought Dallas played well, all things considered. At least at even-strength. But even on special teams. Thomas Harley is gonna make the odd mistake. He plays so many minutes and still, at least in the grand scheme of things, is relatively inexperienced. So for him to get caught trying to hold the line is fine in my book. Same thing on the penalty kill. Colorado definitely looked more dangerous, but the shot that got through felt more like Jake Oettinger struggling a bit to stop it rather than the PK falling apart.

Jake Oettinger

Despite letting in three goals, Oettinger played a fantastic game; easily his second-best all series. Oettinger was the biggest wild card going into the playoffs, not because he was bad this year — he was brilliant — but because this is where the best goaltenders build their resumes. And Oettinger’s resume is still under construction. It was nice to see him get a break when Casey DeSmith came in for the third. It’s a break he’s earned, and a break he’ll need going into Game 5.

Dallas’ depth

This has been the Stars’ true calling card for several seasons and running. However, it hasn’t been the Stars’ calling card for this series. Four games is not enough to assess production, but it is enough to expect more, especially from Dallas’ top players. DeBoer got out the blender in this one, to no real effect. I’m not sure the blender is what Dallas needs, however.

Rather, they need consistency at even-strength. One of the things Dallas has struggled with from line to line, as we noted in the series preview, is that the lines have struggled to generate possession. Even though the Stars have controlled the shot quality battle, they’re still getting outshot. Captain Obvious alert, but it’s hard to score, however skilled, if you don’t have the puck.

The Colorado perspective

For Colorado, this was as good of a game you could have asked for. In fact, it’s the game you should have asked for in Game 3 when Gabriel Landeskog came back. Nonetheless, the Avalanche looked really good. They looked like a fast team, a deep team, and frankly — the better team. At least for one night.

It’s tough to know what to make of the game. Was it just an anomaly? Was it Jared Bednar making adjustments? Was it MacKenzie Blackwood? To me, Dallas just looked tired.

Nonetheless, you have to feel good about Cale Makar looking brilliant, on both sides of the puck. You probably feel good about Landeskog looking solid next to Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin. And you definitely feel good about the team effort.

However, how much better would you feel if Miro Heiskanen was as week-to-week as Jason Robertson? While there’s no official word on Heiskanen, his potential presence at any point on this series is the one thing Colorado can’t be feeling good about. So far, it’s still Colorado’s biggest advantage, even if they took temporary control on Saturday night.