Game 57 Stray Observations: Dallas loses 4-1 to the Rangers/Shesterkin
Good performance. Unfortunate result.
It was always gonna be a tough out. Injuries, Boston yesterday, and now the Rangers, having won seven straight, the night after? Not only that but they were facing the new year’s version of Igor Shesterkin. Dallas lost, but not predictably. They put up a quality effort against a very good team on the backend of a B2B.
We’ll see how much the loss hurts after Winnipeg and Colorado finish tonight’s contests (the Jets should have it wrapped up against the Wild, who really lived up their name for once versus Vancouver the other night, so maybe not?). Wins on both ends will definitely earn some sweat beads on Dallas management foreheads since it would put Colorado two points behind Dallas, and Winnipeg — already ahead of Dallas in points percentage — even closer.
Nonetheless, there’s not much to compalin about (okay more on that in a bit). Even Jamie Benn, who was been the topic of conversation lately (also more on that in a bit) had a quality game. The defensive pairs haven’t completely folded under the pressure, as many assumed, but that was the one thing I felt should have been predictable: Harley and Heiskanen already lift the blueline up on their shoulders. With them still healthy, why would that be any different?
We’ll see just what management thinks in short order. For now, I want to highlight Scott Wedgewood for going to toe-to-toe against a godmode Shesterskin for almost three full periods. It’s important to grade backups on a curve, and so you’ll never see me badmouth a bad Wedgewood night unless it’s something catastrophic. On a night like tonight, it’s nothing but love.
Most backups aren’t even good enough to have a night like this. It’s not the kind of performance you’ll see from him, but it is the kind of performance he’s occasionally capable of, which is a rare and welcome thing. We’ll find out on Thursday how much of Dallas’ recent run is simply about road fumes, and how much is a lowkey funk. History or not, they should beat Ottawa.
Anything else? Only a few strays.
Logan Stanko—Booooo!
I posted my Logan Stankoven highlight of various elements on Twitter, so if you missed that, don’t. I heard he might be drawing in, and so it felt like the right time. Unfortunately, it was not to be, as Matt Duchene ended up being healthy. There’s definitely a reptilian brain part of me that saw Craig Smith glide a little too slowly towards the point that ultimately set up the first goal and thought — Stankoven would have been in his face to stop that shot. Or when Ty Dellandrea took that penalty and I thought — Stankoven wouldn’t have taken that penalty. I do believe it’s the truth.
But also, Stankoven is not a part of Dallas’ plans this year. While it would have been a great story, and I wanted to see him play as much as anyone — the best argument against Stankoven playing is that the forward unit as is, is the unit they believe in going into the playoffs. They’re the players who have been in the thick of it, and more critically, the players everyone agrees is part of their singular journey ahead.
Now…do I like this argument? No. It’s hypocritical in the context of asking prospects to sacrifice by being scratched (so ‘we’ have to sacrifice but not others?), doesn’t really make sense if you think the trade deadline can help, and it undercuts the mandate of Win Now (what if your team is better with Prospect A over Veteran B in the lineup?).
But I get it. And with that, let’s move on and revisit this discussion if next season.
Jamie Benn on the top unit
During the waning minutes of the first period, Ryan Lindgren loses his skate blade. Effectively, the Stars have a 5-on-3. Rather than utilize the added space now available, Benn tries to squeeze in a biscuit at a tough-ish angle…on Shesterkin. If you’re someone who considers faceoffs paramount, and believe they’re one of the most important aspects of the game, I implore you to be invested in what’s happening. That doesn’t mean I want you are out here for the guillotine. It just means I want to know what you think is more important: a guaranteed possession (i.e Benn wins a faceoff), or a non-deterministic scoring chance (i.e. Duchene loses a faceoff, but is much more dangerous with the puck)?
I don’t want to simplify the issue. But this particular issue seems simple in the case of Benn still on the top unit. You could argue that it’s justified because you still want your second unit to score. I agree. But if one unit plays disproportionately more minutes with disproportionately better players, then which move synchronizes with our primary principle on the man advantage?
That’s my question. That’s Dallas’ dilemma.
Thomas Harley is about to get paid
There’s nothing to add to the Harley discussion except that it may be prudent for Dallas to lock him up this year. I can’t imagine a bridge deal not coming back to bite Dallas in the ass. It no longer feels premature to see Harley taking over the league in a couple of years; as a player who consistently challenges the ceiling of what defenders are capable of.
His 1.68 points per hour at even strength is 39th overall in the analytics era. That’s a lot of defensemen, and above names like Zach Werenski and Devon Toews no less. However, what’s worth noting is that a bridge deal also makes sense. (Per friend of the Discord — yes I have a Discord, 305 Stars fans strong! — Greg Amundsen.)
Dallas is gonna have money in two years. So it depends: what is Harley’s ceiling? It’s finally about to cost.
The Rangers perspective
New York is about all the Metro has going, but they remain one of the sturdiest teams in the league. Despite some of the numbers, Shesterkin is — as we saw — still one of the best (perhaps the best) in the game. Their blueline is deep, owing to two elite talents on separate pairs (Fox and Miller), and they have a lot of forward depth that promises to get better at the trade deadline. As good as Florida and Boston are, there’s no team I’d rather face less.
They’re hard to score against, have depth at the most critical positions, and they’re mean. Jacob Trouba gets a lot of ink, but I couldn’t help but think of Vegas in concept while watching them. The trouble for them is that Drury sounds like he’s happy to add around the margins because their big target is…drum roll please…Scott Laughton??? (These are just preliminary reports, but while I don’t believe Tarasenko is the answer I just don’t understand what the hell Drury is doing sometimes.)
Still, New York is legit, and I think they get way too lost in the Atlantic sex appeal. Hot take: I don’t think Boston is a genuine contender despite being genuinely good, and Florida is pure boom or bust to me. I know they’re legit. They might even be the best team in the league. But I feel like they’re either winning it all this year, or getting goalied in the first round.
Programming note
Tomorrow I’ve got a feature on Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin at D Magazine.
Thursday I’ll have a film room piece on Matt Duchene. I think you’ll like it. As a bonus, I’ll include a section of Mavrik Bourque’s highlight reel I have prepared as a Twitter thread if he gets the callup at some point. I might have a Stars Stuff piece for Friday where I can talk about Texas on Wednesday, and Dallas’ game versus Ottawa from Thursday, but don’t quote me on that.
In the meantime, thank you again, subscribers and a special thanks to paid subscribers. I really thought this might be exhausting if I ever received too much support (how to define that I don’t know) and I felt obligated to churn out piece after piece…instead I just feel hungrier than ever (and yes, I ate; my wife made these obnoxiously delicious cinnamon muffins that taste like fluffy bunuelos.)
I’ve got a pretty sweet surprise for next week (especially for hockey nerds) so stay tuned!
Too many great observations to comment to. But Harley's extension will be the one.
I would make it number one priority. Extend max term with Miro-money. It won't be cheap either way.
Unfortunately this would make a new Duchene contract almost impossible. But I would rather invest in Harley, Thomas.
Great article David. I think Harley is gonna get paid, but I see a bridge deal like Robertson has - lower now but with a qualifying offer that's market rate in a couple of years once the big contracts come off the cap.
Also, please drop your wife's recipe!