Game 6 Stray Observations (Round Two): Dallas finishes Winnipeg in six to move onto to the Western Conference Finals

Mixed emotions. Bright future.

“Where my rematch buddy?”

Those infamous MMA words were my first thought in response to Dallas closing the book on the President’s Trophy winners, the Winnipeg Jets. It’s on to Edmonton, which is all I could really think about, even going back to Game 5.

The simple talking point for national outlets is Connor Hellebuyck. However, outside of Mikael Granlund’s first power play goal in Game 4, Hellebuyck never truly felt like the weak link in the series. In fact, this is something Jets writer Garret Hohl covered at his Substack. In an effort to divide types of performance, he has his own categories: team loss, goalie loss, skater loss, team win, goalie win, and skater win. In his research, the Jets have largely lost as a team. It would be one thing if Hellebuyck were the only player struggling. But he wasn’t. And he certainly didn’t struggle tonight¹.

That’s where Dallas deserves credit. While certain players shined brighter — Mikko Rantanen, Jake Oettinger, and Mikael Granlund most notably — there was still a lot of credit to go around. For my part, I felt like Thomas Harley and Alain Nasreddine deserved their own stories. Harley’s presence making Miro Heiskanen’s absence felt just a little less with the kind of work Heiskanen is known for, both offensively and defensively, along with the penalty kill yet again shutting down both elite players (Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar) and elite tactics (Davis Payne’s top power play for the Jets).

Now it’s on to Edmonton, which is poised to be a genuine x-factor of a series. Stuart Skinner has suddenly looked perfect after being a pumpkin versus L.A. The Oilers are one of the few teams who can match and exceed Dallas’ star power.

First period dominance

Credit where credit is due. One thing the Stars have been credibly accused of so slow starts. Sometimes that manifests in outcomes (losing Game 1), and sometimes it manifests in process (getting outshot early). Whatever the case, Dallas came out on a mission. And I do mean mission.

Arguably the only reason Dallas didn’t score is because the Stars simply couldn’t hit the net. Connor Hellebuyck was super aggressive, challenging more than just the shooters, but the entire arena. Through the first period, it really felt like sheer accident that Dallas wasn’t up by at least a goal.

Officiating

I don’t find any discussion about NHL officiating particularly productive. And it has nothing to do with lacking a stance. Playoff officiating is a perfect example: I despise the pathos of “playoff hockey” — which usually means illegal hockey. Obviously, I love the physicality of the sport, and I think the postseason is genuinely unique. But by trying to market it as this Life or Death event, you end up with the coward’s logic of how to referee the playoffs; a logic that was more or less explicit in The Athletic’s piece on why playoff officiating is different.

Do we have data to back this up? Yep. As layfans may not know, penalties don’t actually go down in the playoffs. They stay functionally the same. However, what does happen is that a massive gap develops between the likelihood of a penalty being called late in a seven-game series versus early on, per Cam Charron.

Data from Cam Charron.

So despite the fact that Winnipeg clearly got away with some penalties — well, it’s Game 6 you see! By being willing to miss calls rather than make the wrong call, we end up with the wrong game.

Oettinger versus Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck had a solid game in which he wasn’t challenged much. Oettinger simply had the better one, in a story that is now becoming very familiar for opposing goalies. There’s not a lot to say here. Oettinger has tracked the puck extremely well, didn’t seem to give up rebounds, and most critically — he made those saves.

Thomas Harley, overtime hero

Harley wasn’t having a dramatic season going into November. However, his underlying numbers screamed “breakout” which is why I thought he was the player to spotlight for D Magazine. Sure enough, the drama of Miro Heiskanen’s injury brought his game into the spotlight in a way nobody could have really foreseen, even with all my “Thomas Harley: elite” crapposting on social media. Harley scoring an overtime winner on the power play was thematically fitting for a player who does so much more. But you already know all that, don’t you?

The Winnipeg perspective

On the hockey side of things, the Jets are interesting. Hellebuyck slowly worked off the choker label, however minimal. But they proved themselves a worthy opponent — granted, a worthy opponent who will kick themselves for not doing more at the trade deadline, and now have to contend with a new Nikolaj Ehlers contract, who was great in this game in all three zones yet again. It’s hard to say where they go from here. Was this season a fluke in terms of success? They were dealing with largely the same roster they’ve had for multiple seasons.

Regardless, I just want to take this time to offer my condolences to Mark Scheifele, and his family. People tend to scoff at the superstar’s burden. “That’s what the money’s for!” None of us would be asked to go to work at a time like that, but Scheifele did, and for that, he has my undying respect².

1. Although I did think he was challenging a bit too much early.

2. Goes without saying: this would hold true if he didn’t.