How Does It Affect The Stars? Cale Makar's return to form, Tortorella scratching Couturier, and Nashville's (insane) surge

There's plenty to talk about even with Dallas out of action.

Nothing’s changed for the Dallas Stars, but that doesn’t mean things aren’t happening. Just yesterday the Stars signed Hobey Baker Award candidate, Ben Kraws, from St. Lawrence University to a one-year deal. Kraws was never much of a prospect, although admittedly all I have to go by are his Elite Prospects numbers. It looks like he was headed more or less nowhere until he seemed to put it all together while with Arizona State University.

Meanwhile, Lian Bichsel is relishing the underdog role his Rogle team has against the top-ranked Farstedt. While everyone has wanted to see Bichsel back in Texas, it’s just nice to see him where he wants to be, and ostensibly making the most of it (I haven’t caught his games with Rogle, mind you) with the kind of mindset you want to see; not to mention, the mindset that has made him so unique in my view as a hybrid defensive defenseman.

It’s the thing that Jim Nill gets and will continue to get credit for: which is that rather than rebuild, retool, or whatever other word you want to use to describe what happens when a failure of vision and management turns into zero playoff tickets — he regenerated his core. In addition to Logan Stankoven and Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque and Lian Bichsel are on their way too. Hell, an argument could be made that Dallas’ roster might be better next year.

We are, of course, getting ahead of ourselves. Nothing guarantees Dallas will win the Cup, and if you want to look for flaws in the context of the NHL’s best, there’s plenty to be found. In terms of sustainable success, Nill and his staff have built it using traditional methods and patience. Fans, and even myself, lament that Nill doesn’t have that kill switch that Vegas does. It’s quite possible that attitude will hurt Dallas’ chances either this year or next. But here’s the thing: if Nill were that guy, then he wouldn’t be the guy with a competitive roster and lots of blue chip prospects. In that respect, I’m impressed.

The logical next question then, is: will it be enough? Will Nill’s approach prove to be the philosophy that takes Dallas to a title? It’ll certainly write itself. I can see the SEO headlines now: “Jim Nill And Cup-Wining Stars Prove Old School Methods Still Work to All 32 Teams.” It’s a cool story, and if you’re a Stars fan, it’s also the headline you want to see.

But if you’ve been a Stars fan for a long time, then you know exactly why such a headline is full of it: Nill might be old school, but no GM has proven himself more adaptable. From Ruff to Hitchcock, drafting for size (Tufte, Nichushkin, Gurianov) versus drafting for skill (Bourque, Stankoven, and Harley), the 2017 haul of all hauls, and a little horseshit sprinkled in, there’s nothing familiar or typical about Nill’s tenure.

Cale Makar: the fire rises

If you haven’t been following Colorado, then you missed Cale Makar’s early season struggles. (He did suffer a lower body injury in December.) I’m sure nefarious fans of opposing teams certainly hope he’s not 100 percent when the postseason begins. Well, keep hoping.

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyStatCards.

(Game Score, which is what these charts refer to, think of like a single-game performance stat. It’s not my go-to statistic if I’m thinking of a player’s raw value, but I do think it’s useful for point-producing players. And as far as single-game evaluations go, it’s one of the better stats.)

I do think there’s something instructive happening here for fans who think Miro Heiskanen is a better defensemen: the instability that high level puck movers can sometimes incur. That doesn’t mean I think Heiskanen is a better defensemen. I just mean that Heiskanen is a better pure defender (although Makar is still good as a movement and reactionary defender — yes, I see some of you Stars fans not giving him credit), and that casual dominance of Heiskanen’s shutdown ability has a ripple effect on the Stars’ fortunes. Colorado will be a strong offensive force for as long as Makar plays for them. Similarly, Dallas will be a strong defensive team as long as Heiskanen wears victory green.

I can whine all day about him/Dallas carefully curating his slapshot into the rest of his shot selection, and fans can criticize the odd mistake as if he’s in a slump, but there is no force more stabilizing on this team than Heiskanen. Even amongst hardcore and discerning fans, I feel like the charge and poise he imbues the blueline with goes underappreciated.

John Tortorella scratches Sean Couturier

The big story last week was the scratching of Philadelphia Flyer veteran, and captain, Sean Couturier. For the most part, this kind of stuff is the hockey cheeseball theatrics that make me want to stare at my occipital lobe. It’s like walking into a modern-day classroom and seeing the nun smack the middle schooler in the tuchus with a ruler. The irony is that I think Tortorella is a more modern coach than he gets credit for. However, my thinking tends to be this: if you need to play inferior players in your lineup in order to send a message, then maybe the message, and not the player, is the problem.

Having said that, Charlie O’Connor’s piece was an eye-opening journey into Tortorella’s logic. And by logic, I don’t mean the modus ponens kind (i.e. Nicholas Deslauriers is a bad player but Couturier has been even worse). I mean, what coaching logic tends to be, which is the logic of psychological outcomes (i.e. what decision can I make that will get players to play how I want them to play?). I recommend reading it in full.

It’s something similar to what Sean Shapiro mentioned it in the comments of the faceoff piece: how faceoff information can be leveraged by coaches as a simple, quick piece of info to communicate to players on whether everyone met or fell below performance expectations. In other words, a superficial decision doesn’t have to be meaningless. However, different context. Tortorella scratched Couturier because they’re a rebuilding team that is one win or one loss away from missing the playoffs altogether. If the roles were reversed, would DeBoer scratch someone like Ryan Suter, Jamie Benn, or Joe Pavelski? I don’t know. I would like to see ‘veteran scratching’ be normalized not necessarily because it can take the pressure off prospects who are always the first to sit, but because I think complacency in any context should be scrutinized.

How worried should the West be about Nashville?

I have a pretty straightforward heuristic for judging teams: “Were they expected to be competitive going into the season?” Flipping the switch, as teams like Minnesota, Detroit — and for a minute, the Islanders — did doesn’t guarantee that the lights stay on. You might have an electrical problem rather than a lightbulb problem. And that’s usually why those teams are more likely to be a talking point of the week rather than a squad to be feared. It is, however, only that, a heuristic. It’s no substitute for analysis.

That’s what makes teams like Nashville, Vancouver, and the Rangers so bizarre. They’re somewhere between a team lucksacking their way to victory, and teams earning it. Let’s focus on Nashville. Are they for real?

On the surface, no. PDO, the classic “luck” stat, is definitely in their favor, and by some comical margins.

If we dig deeper, however, we see that it’s not necessarily hot air either. This is a team absolutely in Blast Off mode.

However, what else stands out? “They’ve been average a lot longer than they’ve been elite.”

Exactly. Did anything change between this year and last? Sort of. Nashville was pretty banged up down the stretch last season, losing Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, and Roman Josi for varying degrees of absence down the stretch. The Predators were 23rd in expected goal share last year. This year they’re sixth, so it’s hard to say just how real this Nashville team is. On paper, they check off a lot of boxes: goaltending, defense, and an offense that feels driven more by Brunette and his system than by personnel.

Ultimately, I can’t get behind them as a team on the up. If you’re a good team, you should be good longer than you’ve been average. Back in 2013, it was found that the previous 17 Cup winners only won 5 of their last 10 regular season games on average. I believe in momentum, but only as something that can happen within a game — not as something you can hinge your performance on.