Sorry to hear you had a tough week, hope you're doing OK.
Re: Oettinger, I've been working on a pretty big project aimed at evaluating goalies based on shots that are actually on net, but from what I'm looking at I think he's very consistently just a little bit above average. It's still a work-in-progress, but his 2022-23 season looks a lot less impressive by my metric.
(Also, interestingly, by this metric Bobrovsky's time in Florida looks quite a bit better than by xG). I'm hoping I'll have a more complete write-up next week or the week after.
Just a quick observation about the salary cap and no personal income taxes. I’ve noticed people focus entirely upon the tax on wages, but the truth is that the focus should be upon ALL of the taxes that each individual state levies. Yes, Texas has no tax on earnings, but one complaint that I hear quite frequently from newcomers is the high rates we pay on property and sales taxes. There are studies out there that show that Texas is much closer to others states ( like Cali) in total tax revenue gathered from the people than most would believe. The high sales tax rate here is the most common complaint I hear about. I think it would behoove a GM for a sports team in a no earnings tax state to go in with data about total tax structures for each state, otherwise you may find yourself at a disadvantage because of a vote that is being based upon popular assumptions, rather than the true overall picture.
And I thought I read that players are taxed at the rate for where each game is played? If correct, 50% of all players income is not taxed at their home state rate. No taxes on that 50% is no small deal but still only half what people assume.
Big caveat to that is signing bonuses vs salary and then the jock tax is as you said implied where that work is done, ie where the game is played. It makes a difference but it is quite overblown as the poster above stated with property taxes and jock tax.
One more thing: I totally forgot about the Canadian provinces while typing this out. Two countries that have different tax laws in each state/ province? Not likely to find an equitable solution. Good luck with that.
Once you get down a cost of living or quality of life rabbit hole you can make the most random things look apples to apples. Florida has high insurance rates and Florida man(s). NYC is more expensive than Buffalo even though they are the same state. So on and so forth.
Enjoying your columns. Eye test looks like Oettinger is playing hurt. He'll have flashes of Old Oettinger but will regress to Hurt Oettinger. I hope he improves....
Is some of this injecting a new defender into the mix? Tanev is great, but sometimes when you mix a stone wall with a moat you just end up with flat ground. Add in Suter and Hak now being a thing and I question how long that takes to gel. I’m willing to FF 5-10 games for this, but after a while you can’t blame it on the unknown.
The antiquated idea of a shutdown pair and and offensive pair and then a shitty pair seems like the issue in the D. Why are we making the concession to keep Esa on his strong side vs moving Miro. It’s a well talked about point that most d men say they can defend well in zone on off hand but breakouts and ozone play suffer. Seems pretty dumb to set it up the way Pete has.
Yes, I too was expecting a punch back response to the collapse. Instead another embarrassment. I think you are placing too much on Otter and not enough on our swiss cheese defense. We will not go far without a tougher defense. What is the stat in blocked shots vs earlier in the year?And what about hits? I don’t see us pushing them off pucks or away from the crease!! Time for someone on defense to step up and be a leader!!!
I agree with this. Man for man coverage in our d zone means 3 of 5 defenders are trained elite forwards… they are by definition not actually elite defenders.
That’s a a system that has both dmen often out of position (in traditional d set up…) both in same corner, both chasing opponents around like chickens with their heads cut off!!!
So we bring in a stud… and tell him to abandon your post!!! “Stop doing what you’ve been trained to do at the highest level!!!”
Goalies protected by forwards are not being protected to the highest degree. Fact.
One other "small" thing about the Canadian teams is that the players' personal expenses, including the house, will be paid in Canadian dollars while they are paid in US dollars.
With an exchange rate of 1.35, it's no small thing. Especially for players with a family.
There is also the Canada's publicly funded health care system that goes into the equation, among a lot of other things...Like less guns.
I think last night solidified the fact that Dallas is going to finish 3rd in the Central and 4th overall in the Western. The Stars have given away 4 points in the last two game which were sorely needed to stay atop the Central. The argument that Carolina is the best team in the Eastern doesn’t hold water with me. The Stars had a 3 goal lead and should have won that game. Last night was their worst game in 2024. Somebody(Benn, DeBors or whomever) needs to get in their face to get this turned around.
I don’t know what the answer to the Ottinger problem is but if it is not fixed quickly the Stars will not make it past the first round.
Sorry to hear you had a tough week, hope you're doing OK.
Re: Oettinger, I've been working on a pretty big project aimed at evaluating goalies based on shots that are actually on net, but from what I'm looking at I think he's very consistently just a little bit above average. It's still a work-in-progress, but his 2022-23 season looks a lot less impressive by my metric.
(Also, interestingly, by this metric Bobrovsky's time in Florida looks quite a bit better than by xG). I'm hoping I'll have a more complete write-up next week or the week after.
Just a quick observation about the salary cap and no personal income taxes. I’ve noticed people focus entirely upon the tax on wages, but the truth is that the focus should be upon ALL of the taxes that each individual state levies. Yes, Texas has no tax on earnings, but one complaint that I hear quite frequently from newcomers is the high rates we pay on property and sales taxes. There are studies out there that show that Texas is much closer to others states ( like Cali) in total tax revenue gathered from the people than most would believe. The high sales tax rate here is the most common complaint I hear about. I think it would behoove a GM for a sports team in a no earnings tax state to go in with data about total tax structures for each state, otherwise you may find yourself at a disadvantage because of a vote that is being based upon popular assumptions, rather than the true overall picture.
And I thought I read that players are taxed at the rate for where each game is played? If correct, 50% of all players income is not taxed at their home state rate. No taxes on that 50% is no small deal but still only half what people assume.
Big caveat to that is signing bonuses vs salary and then the jock tax is as you said implied where that work is done, ie where the game is played. It makes a difference but it is quite overblown as the poster above stated with property taxes and jock tax.
One more thing: I totally forgot about the Canadian provinces while typing this out. Two countries that have different tax laws in each state/ province? Not likely to find an equitable solution. Good luck with that.
Once you get down a cost of living or quality of life rabbit hole you can make the most random things look apples to apples. Florida has high insurance rates and Florida man(s). NYC is more expensive than Buffalo even though they are the same state. So on and so forth.
Enjoying your columns. Eye test looks like Oettinger is playing hurt. He'll have flashes of Old Oettinger but will regress to Hurt Oettinger. I hope he improves....
Is some of this injecting a new defender into the mix? Tanev is great, but sometimes when you mix a stone wall with a moat you just end up with flat ground. Add in Suter and Hak now being a thing and I question how long that takes to gel. I’m willing to FF 5-10 games for this, but after a while you can’t blame it on the unknown.
The antiquated idea of a shutdown pair and and offensive pair and then a shitty pair seems like the issue in the D. Why are we making the concession to keep Esa on his strong side vs moving Miro. It’s a well talked about point that most d men say they can defend well in zone on off hand but breakouts and ozone play suffer. Seems pretty dumb to set it up the way Pete has.
Yes, I too was expecting a punch back response to the collapse. Instead another embarrassment. I think you are placing too much on Otter and not enough on our swiss cheese defense. We will not go far without a tougher defense. What is the stat in blocked shots vs earlier in the year?And what about hits? I don’t see us pushing them off pucks or away from the crease!! Time for someone on defense to step up and be a leader!!!
I agree with this. Man for man coverage in our d zone means 3 of 5 defenders are trained elite forwards… they are by definition not actually elite defenders.
That’s a a system that has both dmen often out of position (in traditional d set up…) both in same corner, both chasing opponents around like chickens with their heads cut off!!!
So we bring in a stud… and tell him to abandon your post!!! “Stop doing what you’ve been trained to do at the highest level!!!”
Goalies protected by forwards are not being protected to the highest degree. Fact.
One other "small" thing about the Canadian teams is that the players' personal expenses, including the house, will be paid in Canadian dollars while they are paid in US dollars.
With an exchange rate of 1.35, it's no small thing. Especially for players with a family.
There is also the Canada's publicly funded health care system that goes into the equation, among a lot of other things...Like less guns.
I think last night solidified the fact that Dallas is going to finish 3rd in the Central and 4th overall in the Western. The Stars have given away 4 points in the last two game which were sorely needed to stay atop the Central. The argument that Carolina is the best team in the Eastern doesn’t hold water with me. The Stars had a 3 goal lead and should have won that game. Last night was their worst game in 2024. Somebody(Benn, DeBors or whomever) needs to get in their face to get this turned around.
I don’t know what the answer to the Ottinger problem is but if it is not fixed quickly the Stars will not make it past the first round.