How Does It Affect The Stars? Colorado's additions, more LTIR Vegas talk, and Eric Tulsky's rise to power

Plus a perfunctory recap about Jake Oettinger's performance versus the Devils.

If this was supposed to be Dallas’ response game after the late-game collapse versus the Panthers, then we’re still waiting.

In the aftermath, the biggest story for fans on social media was Jake Oettinger. And that’s not just fair, but correct. Oettinger has been bad. But the Stars defense shares a little — not a lot — blame. They’re 25th in high danger goals allowed, which speaks less to broad defensive issues, and more to the specific types of defensive lapses that get through. These last pair of games have been especially bad.

In other words, Oettinger has been bad, but Dallas is also giving him a tougher workload, as you can see here.

Data and visual courtesy of Hockeyviz.

What this means long term kind of writes itself: the Stars will only go as far as their goaltending allows, and to the extent that their goaltending holds them back, team defense will need to be better in order to minimize netminder struggles.

Beyond that, there’s not much to say about the game. Once the bizarre first period ended, everything was just a perfunctory march towards calling it a night.

I suppose we could talk about the line changes. We did get to see Logan Stankoven with Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen with Esa Lindell, and my favorite…Thomas Harley with Chris Tanev. The forward lines I wouldn’t read much into because it read exactly like Getting Blown Out, Therefore Do Something. Although I’m heavily into getting Joe Pavelski off that top line. One play that stuck out was when he was in the neutral zone, and a Panther puckjacked with the kind of worrying ease you’re not used to seeing. Pavelski has never been a burner, but rarely has he looked so helpless. Sure, he’ll lose battles, but he reacted to that play like he had no idea anyone was on his six.

However, it was the new-look defense pairs could bear fruit. Except for Harley getting double shifted, it’s worth noting that the Suter-Hakanpaa duo stayed put. As I’ve said, I really believe Harley-Tanev is the way. According to 32 Thoughts, extension discussions have already been broached. This makes sense, since Dallas doesn’t have a RHD anywhere in the system, and those on the roster are either nowhere close to top four material (Hakanpaa) or won’t ever get a chance (Lundkvist). Plus I think Harley in the top four anchoring his own pair is simply the post-Lindell future they need to think to get a head start on. Maybe it also prompts discussions about getting Heiskanen on his strongside (a player that has looked more human than human lately).

In other news, Stankoven is still fun to watch.

Avalanche take the top spot in the Central

My favorite move at the deadline was Bowen Byram for Casey Mittelstadt, who’s now playing with Valeri Nichsuhkin and Jonathan Drouin. It’s not that I think Byram is bad (he’s been elite for Buffalo in his brief stint), or even that I think Mittelstadt is the truth…although the numbers look good.

It’s that these are the moves I wish Jim Nill had in him. We’ve seen him do it once, with Brendan Dillon for Jason Demers. But this season would have been perfect for that kind of move. The Avalanche did that, functionally getting Nazem Kadri back (very different players, granted) and then using the deadline to fortify the backend. Sean Walker’s looked good, and despite being on the thrid pair at even strength, he’s getting top four minutes.

I don’t know if these moves take Colorado to the promised land once again, but they’re the most dangerous team in the West.

Death and LTIR for Vegas (and taxes)

Yesterday, Stars fans’ favorite writer Michael Russo, wrote about Vegas and LTIR. It’s another round of what we ourselves discussed: GMs don’t give a shit.

However, that’s not to say things won’t change. While all the other GMs are patting Vegas on the back for some bizarre reason, it’s not as if changes aren’t on the table. In fact, a different topic was brought up in conjunction with LTIR. This one might ruffle the feathers of those who think Vegas is gaming the system with the LTIR they’ve leveraged, but Elliotte Friedman brought up another “loophole” that owners might eventually reckon with: the advantage of teams with no state tax, bringing up the example of Gustav Forsling’s recent signing, arguing that the $5.7 AAV contract he recently signed in Florida is a contract no Canadian team would have the luxury of signing.

The reason why this is “suddenly” a potential issue is that insiders expect the cap to go up aggressively, which would give no state tax teams even more of an advantage, drawing potential concern from American teams too. What do Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz’ contracts look like in Toronto?

Vegas might have bigger problems though. Minnesota is now three points behind them. Could they actually miss the playoffs?

The correct answer is no. This is not like the Detroit situation where a team is due for ‘regression’ because they don’t actually do anything well other than shoot. Plus Vegas’ injuries certainly haven’t helped. But Vegas’ hot start was also hot air.

Data and visual courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.

They’re bound for an uptick, but they’re cutting it close. Funnily enough, it’s a very similar story to Vegas the year they missed the playoffs. They were a good team then too, ranking 9th in expected goal differential. That team deserved a better fate, but as the now-commonly referenced Unforgiven quote goes, deserve doesn’t always have something to do with it.

Eric Tulsky and analytics

I don’t have any long, rambling thoughts on John Matisz’ fantastic recent article about Eric Tulsky, who went from full time chemist, part time hockey blogger to assistant GM of the Carolina Hurricanes (along with Tyler Dellow, Tulsky’s NHL Numbers site was the place for me). Besides, those rambling thoughts you can find all over this place. I just think Pete DeBoer’s quote in particular stood out.

Programming note

Sorry about another week without a paid post. I had a tough week — the kind of week that makes you self-reflect and ask the Big Questions. But next week we’ll be rocking and rolling as this season winds down. And a big thanks to all the subscribers. It’s an honor to write for an audience of passionate hockey fans, some of whom are willing to pay a little extra for that little extra I think is worth paying for.