Stars Stuff: Vegas, defining NHL-readiness, checking my Wyatt Johnston prediction, and belated strays

It was a good weekend.

Wyatt Johnston original artwork by Ryan Konzelman.

I saw a lot of worry following the trade deadline. For sure, Colorado and Vegas made a lot of moves to get better, which they did. The fact that both are immediate rivals is all the more reason for fans to stress-assess. Winnipeg technically got better, but well…whether or not those offensive toys will be leveraged is another matter entirely[/cough]. But they’re a really good team that should be taken seriously.

Here’s the thing, though: Dallas didn’t do as much because they didn’t need as much. Colorado’s depth has been an issue all year. They needed more than one move to fix it, so they made more than one move. The Golden Knights? Same thing. In fact, let’s set the record straight here and now: Vegas is 14th in goals-for per game, and 12th in goals against. Their special teams have been even more mediocre than their raw goal stats (21st on the PP, and 14th on the PK). If you want to dig deeper, their possession stats don’t line up well either. So while some might want to question whether Mark Stone actually has a lacerated spleen, here’s the bottom line: Vegas needed many things, so they made many moves.

I’m not saying their moves were acts of desperation, or that the way they’re leveraging the rulebook, which is what it is, doesn’t merit discussion. (Just because something is legal, doesn’t make it ethical.) Nor would I be surprised if they repeated. But the Knights are a team that needed to make a move. They’re in a second wild card spot, three points below the Predators. While they’re not in any immediate danger of missing the playoffs outright (Minnesota is six points behind them), a second wild card spot isn’t exactly comfortable living either.

Dallas’ successful weekend road trip puts them just two points back of Vancouver, the reigning regular season champs of the Western Conference. As a result, the odds on who they’ll play in the first round looks very very different.

Data and visual courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy.

Colorado and Winnipeg are still in the mix, but seeing Nashville figure so prevalently should be a potential sigh of relief for Stars fans. Sure, the Predators have played them tough all year, but a Nashville first round matchup is a lot different than a first round matchup with one of the Central’s top three, or hilariously — Vegas. (Imagine two teams who paid the iron price for deadline adds in Vancouver and Vegas getting bounced in round 1.)

All in all, it’s been a very good weekend for Dallas despite the deadline feeling like a “dud.”

Defining NHL-readiness

So Sean Shapiro called me out on Spits and Suds. I was super offended; so offended I want to take this opportunity to recommend Gavin’s show (a good dude on and off the air) and Sean’s site, because both are mint.

I also want to explain my bias. My bias towards prospects getting opportunities in the NHL is less about talent, and more about culture. I’m tired of young players having to resolve the friction between a GM who wants to see what a prospect is capable of, and a coach who doesn’t have the shelf life to find out. This might be an oversimplification, but it’s not a strawman. We see it done the wrong way, like in Columbus, all the time. But we also see it done the right way too. That’s my ‘bias’ — giving the benefit of the doubt to the young person trying to discover their way over the adults who should either a) know the way b) set the expectation, or in lieu of b then c) set the direction.

Beyond that, what makes a player NHL ‘ready’? How ready was the Endless Forward*, Logan Stankoven, before he started scoring for the Dallas Stars? Whatever the answer is, it’s obviously not “well when he started scoring for the Dallas Stars” because that would suggest that NHL-readiness only happens when jerseys change. Being a pro hockey player is special, but I don’t think the clothing is a real life Tanooki Suit. (Although the Mooterus comes close.) So how do we define readiness for Mavrik Bourque, who was on almost the exact same point-pace as Stankoven, before Stankoven became NHL-ready? How do we define readiness for Lian Bichsel, but would have undoubtedly got the call-up over also-rans like Derrick Pouliot and Alex Petrovic, had he stayed with Texas?

Answering those questions is for another time, but these prospects are very different than Dallas’ previous prospects. I went to bat for Julius Honka and Denis Gurianov not because I thought they were impact players but because I thought they deserved better opportunities (and sometimes, just basic courtesies). Stankoven, Bourque, and Bichsel are more than that.

That doesn’t mean I think they all need to be playing right now. I want to be clear that this isn’t a #FreeHonka movement. What I’m saying is that based on what I’ve seen, these players are good enough to play in the NHL, and match up better than players on the current Stars roster who have been “NHL ready” for years. “So why wouldn’t you want them freed?” Because those are different arguments. The Stars have one of their deepest rosters, maybe ever, and it’s got them close to the top spot in the West.

Checking in on my Wyatt Johnston prediction

Because I have an inferiority complex, I often need to remind people how right I am when I am, and conveniently ignore telling readers of the times when I’m wrong. Nonetheless, predicting something specific raises the stakes, and it’s just more fun. Here was my assessment of Johnston for D Magazine in July.

The standard jump in points was eight, with the aforementioned players averaging 54 points in their sophomore seasons…Basically, Dallas can expect something in the range of a 50- to 60-point season for Johnston. 

In my follow up here at the Stars Stack, I decided to dig deeper to be more emphatic, and come down on one side.

Will he? He has 49 points in 66 games. That puts him on pace for 60.68. Boom.

Now that I’m done patting myself on the back, what’s the future hold? Well if you went back and checked that specific list I had him in, we’re talking names like John Tavares, Clayton Keller, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jeff Skinner, Brady Tkachuk, Travic Konecny and Luca Raymond. Whether or not he actually becomes something like that is another argument, but he’s in some fantastic company because he himself is a fantastic player.

Defense pairs

Unless injuries force DeBoer’s hand, it looks like Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell are the official second pair. As much as I really dislike various elements of their game (as a duo), not to mention the cascade effect on Heiskanen, I wouldn’t expect them to be separated, and honestly — they don’t need to be. It’s way too early, but their expected goal share is 73 percent in 31 minutes together. Both are really good in the defensive zone in very different ways, but strong defense is still strong defense.

The only way they become an issue is in the playoffs, against stylistic matchups. For example, I could see them being really good against Vegas, but taking some lumps versus Colorado. We’ll see. For now, Harley-Heiskanen, and Lindell-Tanev form one of the better top fours in the league.

Joe Pavelski, back from the dead?

Pavelski had two goals over the weekend, which was nice. Pavelski is gonna be an interesting story going into the playoffs. Nobody’s talking about the wall he hit this year. I take it back. Did I say wall? I meant Cthulhu armed with that super cool axe thing from Mandy.

It’s been a massacre.

And yet he had some goals this weekend! It’ll be interesting to see how fans perceive him. Dallas is plus-53 in shots on goal without him. But he remains a dangerous shooter. In some ways, it’ll be like the old boxing adage about how the last thing a fighter loses is their power. (Ask Michael Moorer for proof.) Pavelski may get outshot, outhustled, and in general may not be able to compete like he used to…but he won’t lose that shot. Maybe that’s all he’s gonna need.

*Endless Forward will never stick as a nickname for Stankoven, but Endless Forward and Ovenmaster will be Stankoven’s officially recognized nicknames on the Stars Stack over Stank the Tank (am I the only one who never cared for ‘Old School’ outside of the tranquilizer scene?), and Stanky (which is just terrible).

‘Endless Forward’ is a callback to one of my favorite Japanese MMA fighters, Mitsuhiro Ishida, who was a really fun subversion of fighter type, back when Americans dominated the wrestle-boxer archetype while Japanese fighters were largely defined as either striker or grapplers, Ishida was neither. So-called for his blistering cardio, Stankoven reminds me of Ishida, hence the nickname.