I think most fans want something simple and tangible, and this is an attempt at that. Clearly something you'd want to merge with their WAR and other all encompassing stats. Something nice to see, and clearly ammo when you want to praise or dump on specific players...
Linda! (If you're not Linda D then just ignore this)
You're on the right track. But recall that the thousand minutes is an important qualifier here. What you'd want to do is take his .09 and multiply it by 1000. Then divide it by 60. We want a sense of offense per shift, hence the per hour. So 90 divided by 60 = 1.5. Thus, if the hockey gods rewarded everyone equally, Duchene's offensive skill would be worth 1.5 goals. As you've already calculated, then there's the defense. Which drags his value down.
The only reason we're not falling down this rabbit hole to find his total is that the model includes special teams, finishing, setting, and penalty differential as well. Speaking of which, I forgot to link his post!
Hi, David! Yes it's me (Linda D). Thanks for the follow-up! I knew I was doing something wrong because I couldn't imagine he would be worth just .05 sG.
This is fascinating stuff. I really admire the brains that come up with this.
I think most fans want something simple and tangible, and this is an attempt at that. Clearly something you'd want to merge with their WAR and other all encompassing stats. Something nice to see, and clearly ammo when you want to praise or dump on specific players...
So, am I understanding this correctly? According to Micah's numbers, Duchesne would have an even-strength sG of .05?
Linda! (If you're not Linda D then just ignore this)
You're on the right track. But recall that the thousand minutes is an important qualifier here. What you'd want to do is take his .09 and multiply it by 1000. Then divide it by 60. We want a sense of offense per shift, hence the per hour. So 90 divided by 60 = 1.5. Thus, if the hockey gods rewarded everyone equally, Duchene's offensive skill would be worth 1.5 goals. As you've already calculated, then there's the defense. Which drags his value down.
The only reason we're not falling down this rabbit hole to find his total is that the model includes special teams, finishing, setting, and penalty differential as well. Speaking of which, I forgot to link his post!
Hi, David! Yes it's me (Linda D). Thanks for the follow-up! I knew I was doing something wrong because I couldn't imagine he would be worth just .05 sG.
This is fascinating stuff. I really admire the brains that come up with this.