In The Wild: Reacting to Esa Lindell's five-year extension with the Dallas Stars

He's here to stay.

It wasn't the contract Stars fans asked for (we’re still waiting for Thomas Harley's new deal), but it's the one they got: Esa Lindell, extended five more years at $5.25 million in annual average salary.

For the franchise and most fans, locking up Lindell, ever the artist of the invisible, is huge. For the longest time, Lindell was seen as an intriguing long shot, even giving Defending Big D an exclusive interview to wet the appetite of prospect nerds. I remember thinking more highly of Ludvig Bystrom and Devin Shore from that same draft than Lindell. The knock on Lindell was that he had size and skill, but zero movement. Nonetheless, if your third rounder ends up giving you meaningful games, you’ve done your job at the draft.

Beyond meaningful games, Lindell has and continues to give Dallas meaningful minutes in a borderline exclusive role: as its top penalty killer, and premiere shutdown defender. And now his tenure will extend until 2030.  

For those who have been following me, you know the story: it took forever for me to "like" Lindell's game. I could never resolve in my head how a static defender could succeed in a dynamic game. And in my defense, that was true early on. Lindell's shift to shift rating was extremely poor.

But in defense of everyone who knew better, I also never gave him credit for the transformation he had to undergo, going from an offensive defensemen in the Liiga and the AHL into a vanilla shutdown defender in the NHL. A player transforming into a role opposite their original profile is not a transformation players typically experience, if ever. But that's exactly what Lindell has accomplished.   

The positive

Data and visual courtesy of Louis Boulet.

While this setup by may look unfamiliar, it’s pretty intuitive. And that’s all thanks to Louis Boulet. I’ll have an explainer card eventually, but you can read what these categories mean here. SPAR refers to Standing Points Above Expected, which is Wins Above Replacement converted into extra points in the standing (one win being two points, two wins being worth four points, etc).

To me the biggest glow-up for Lindell has been his silent integration into all three zones. Where before he was just a shutdown defender with an above average shot (although it's disappeared in recent years, to the point where he his once-deadly wrister seems quite weak), now he's someone that has some residual offensive presence. As you can see from his Teamplay portion of the chart, his chemistry with others has never been better. And this would appear to be true career-wise.

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Standing Points Above Expected.

No, I don't believe Lindell is an actively good passer or anything. But looking at his career xSPAR chart, it's very clear when his value starting to hit its crescendo, and that was under Pete DeBoer. It seems counterintuitive at first glance, since he went from being paired with John Klingberng in his prime, to Jani Hakanpaa. But unlike those years under Rick Bowness, Ken Hitchcock, Lindy Ruff, and Jim Montgomery, he's been asked to be off-puck offensive support. DeBoer likes his defenders to be options on the backend, and they're heavily involved in the neutral zone. That’s a role DeBoer actively wants his defenders to play and it’s something I picked up on when Chris Tanev arrived. All of a sudden, Lindell wasn't just some bystander. He was making offensive reads, and taking control of play options for his teammates.    

How quickly that could change course, or continue developing is anyone’s guess. However, it’s not the reason Lindell was extended. He was extended because he’s an upper tier shutdown defender.

The downside

I know not every piece here needs some cheesy writing motif, but I do want 'In The Wild' to be a running feature. Objective analysis is critical, but so is intuition. So what is my gut reaction? What's the thing that doesn't quite sit right? For me, it's two things: term and the future top four. Five years is a lot for a 30-year old shutdown defender. How many of the next five years will be played by the current iteration of Lindell?

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Net Rating.

Of course, this is true of every player, but Lindell is already a single-layered player to begin with. Any layer he loses from here on out could be disastrous. In fact, it makes me think of someone like Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

Data and visual courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.

And yes, that sudden dip into an eldritch pit was preceded by the 2017-2018 calendar year; when he was 30. Obviously, that doesn't make the two synonymous. Somebody like Mattias Ekholm, now 34, is playing the best hockey of his life. Nonetheless, signing Lindell didn't feel imperative. What if Thomas Harley was able to anchor his own pair, and turns out to be good on the PK?

I know. I know. But here’s the thing. I don't like the idea that "well you don't want certain guys on the PK in case of injury." So that means stack the odds on ONE guy to shoulder all of the burden? That seems unfair to Lindell, whether he can handle it or not. Beyond that, do we have some data that says the PK leads to more injuries than the other 80 percent of the game played at even strength? If Lindell is really evolving late in his career as a decent three-zone defender, it might behoove the franchise to let him further develop that part of his game. That doesn't mean playing on the power play, or cutting his PK minutes in half. But it could mean giving him a modest break from net front battles and board scrums. It’s great that his bones are made of tungsten, but age is more violent than vulcanized rubber at 100mph.  

As for the NTC, it's just business, and I get that. If you want people to sign with your team, players need to see contracts favorable to them. Thankfully, Nill is good at this, unlike Kyle Dubas, who let his stars in Toronto Glengarry Glen Ross him at the negotiating table. But Lindell fits the profile of a player you'd like to leave yourself an out with, especially if someone like Lian Bichsel were to be ready ahead of schedule. (Not that I think Dallas even thought twice about Bichsel during these negotiations)

Beyond that, I feel like if Heiskanen on his strongside is at all a plan in the near or even distant future, then Harley would be the natural fit to drive the second pair, which Lindell's presence pretty much diffuses altogether. Is it worth losing Lindell just for a handedness experiment? Obviously not, but it would have been nice to consider that an option at some point. Its a minor criticism in the grand scheme of things, but hey…it’s my gut talking right now.  

TL;DR

Lindell is an elite defensive defensemen in Dallas' win (for) now window, and the Stars didn't want to have any question marks about his presence going into next season.

This decision ensures that they don’t. Any potential drawbacks to Lindell’s deal will only manifest in the last two years of his career, which is precisely when he becomes tradeable. Lindell and Miro Heiskanen are two of Dallas’ three top defenders. Two are locked up. Now we await the third.