Into The Weeds: Analyzing Dallas vs. the 2024-2025 Central Division
A walk in the park. Just with concussions.
It was always only a little funny to me that the offseason was so polarizing for Stars fans. Two seasons under Pete DeBoer, and Dallas finished with at least 108 points each year. They were, are, and will be a great Central team yet again. In fact, I’m struggling to see where the Central Division can be an obstacle in the way that the Pacific is (which I’ll preview next month).
Dallas doesn’t have to worry about “margins for error” (which is not to say they can’t manifest), or falling off a precipice. In fact, they don’t have to worry about a precipice at all. But in the modern game, consistency is as much about the fickleness of the hockey gods as it is about on-ice performance. And for sure, the Stars will have questions that need answering. Will Jake Oettinger once again struggle? Will the development of Dallas’ youth hit a few bumps? Was I off my rocker with defending the ‘pata mobile’ that is the new blueline vehicle?
But that’s the beauty of having a young, elite core with players like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Logan Stankoven.
Speaking of, my latest D Magazine piece went live today. It’s all about Johnston specifically, and how far he can help carry this team — and why he will carry the team. Don’t miss this one!
Link: https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/08/wyatt-johnston-stars-canada-hintz/
Back to what I was saying, these players are less likely to break down the way veterans do, and they’re more likely to hit peaks rather than valleys, unlike veterans. Last year was a good example, actually. Recall the 2017-2018 season under Ken Hitchcock (or don’t: I usually don’t), when a strong core took a modest step back, but because goaltending couldn’t bail them out, they missed the playoffs entirely (Hitch, of course, blamed the goaltending). In other words, Dallas will be elite this year just as they were the year before, and the year before that.
However, today is not necessarily about the Stars, so much as it is about their Central Division opponents. After all, their fortunes will be determined as much by what they do as by what others prevent or aid them in doing.
These will be arranged alphabetically, and — inspired by Gavin Spittle — will include a sticktap section (for players or personnel I think are underrated or unheralded), and a prediction for the heads-up matchup.
Let’s start with the century BOB punching bag of the group.
Chicago Blackhawks
W: 23
L: 53
OL: 6
Points: 52
Key additions: Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Bertuzzi, Pat Maroon, Ilya Mikheyev, Craig Smith, Alec Martinez, T.J. Brodie, Laurent Broissoit
Chicago remains a team in need of everything, so their offseason involved them getting everything. But there’s a reason they almost ended up with Macklin Celebrini, and that’s because they were bad in every way that bad teams are bad. Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching, etc. Their saving grace is that they have a generational talent in Connor Bedard. His 61 points in 68 games made for one of the more impressive rookie years in recent memory.
What’s crazy is that Bedard actually underperformed as a shooter. His shooting percentage of 10.6 percent in all situations was incredibly underwhelming. For comparison, Wyatt Johnston shot at 14.7 percent. If Bedard had shot at the same clip, he would have scored 30 goals. Given his absurd shooting talent, it’s not at all unrealistic to expect a 30/40-goal campaign in his sophomore season.
Unfortunately it’s just him.
No matter how good Bedard is, he has zero offensive support. It doesn’t help matters that Lukas Reichel, picked 17th overall in 2020, is approaching bust territory. The Reichel pick really illustrates how privileged Dallas is to boast names like Johnston, Robertson, Hintz, Stankoven, and Bourque. Imagine Dallas without Johnston, and it’s easy to see why teams find themselves in the hole for so long. Missing out on draft picks hurts. That’s not to bury Reichel. He’s still just 22. But it’s unlikely he’ll develop beyond a bottom six mainstay.
Their blueline is admittedly becoming more formidable, anchored by one elite talent (Alex Vlasic), one overpaid but still-solid talent (Seth Jones), and one developing talent (Kevin Korchinski, although he’s scheduled to start the year in the AHL). It’s not nothing.
Sticktap: Artyom Levshunov. The second overall pick this year is expected to start this year in the AHL. He’s a tank of a defender. While I don’t believe he’ll be the best defender to come out of that draft, he’ll probably get his Folgers (sorry for the hyperlink: this commercial never gets old to me).
Head-to-Head Prediction: 3-1 (Previously 3-1)
Chicago tends to play Dallas “tough”, for whatever reason. Like last season, they’ll pick up a win over Dallas because teams can’t go undefeated, and you never know when a team can get goalie’d. (What’s the opposite of goalie’d by the way?) But this games will be playgrounds for Stankoven in particular.