Into The Weeds: Figuring out which Dallas forwards are winning (and losing) the Stars territory
What's up with Dallas' forwards? Let's find out.
Is the regular season underway? Because it doesn’t feel like it. Being extremely online probably doesn’t help anyone’s sense of time, sanity, or health, so that’s on us. But still, four games in two weeks has been sports torture. Not helping matters is watching the Central Division pass Dallas by.
“How does your Winnipeg prediction feel now?” Fine, let’s start with a digression. The thing about genuine analysis is that it’s really just an impression, and whatever insight underpins that impression takes time to unfold, if at all. Sure, I’m also a bit stubborn, but the Jets have the best shooting percentage on any power play in 17 years. The only roster to have a power play that hot through a full season was the 2018-2019 Tampa Bay Lightning, who subsequently lost in the first round. Their 3.13 goals per hour of EV play is top 10 in the last 17 years. Only one roster with a hot hand like that ended up going to the Finals (the Panthers in 2022). Does Winnipeg look like one of the best rosters since 2007? If there’s a formula for what you might call a mirage, they’re it.
If I’m wrong, so be it. I can live with being wrong. What I can’t live with is a lazy attempt at appearing right. Again, Winnipeg is a strong team with modest firepower, and elite goaltending. This is not an argument for “they’re bad actually.” It’s an argument leveraged at whether they’re elite. If the exact same roster of the last several years showed us anything else, I’d be inclined to think more of them, but they haven’t, so I don’t. That’s why Minnesota is so much more interesting. They’ve had the underlying numbers of an elite team for awhile, which we discussed before the season.
But they’re also a one-line team, and I think struggling to get production out of their top forward prospects in Liam Ohgren, who was sent back down to the AHL, and Murat Khusnutdinov, will hurt down the road if they don’t develop quicker. I don’t believe Kirill Kaprizov will slow down thanks to Marco Rossi replacing Ryan Hartman, but imagine Edmonton without Leon Draisaitl, and that’s probably the ceiling of your team (or maybe not; Minnesota has an elite blueline). Colorado is still a player IMO, just a diminishing one, while Nashville GM Barry Trotz was on radio talking about having to tear it all down. Looks like the bold strategy of getting older on a team that was already getting older didn’t work.
I say all of this to say that Dallas is still in good position despite their two losses to Florida. The teams above them are riding waves too big for them not to fall off at some point, and while Dallas is technically one of them — top four in save percentage, just below the Shesterkin-led Rangers, the Hellebuyck-led Jets, and the Dostál-led Ducks — there’s also a lot of chugging from players we know can shimmy. So that’s what we’re gonna look at today. Instead of going game by game, lookin at Corey’s microdata, I’m gonna condense some of the info into something more digestible. I’ll have a broader outlook piece about Dallas’ forwards on Tuesday for D Magazine, so watch out for that one. In the meantime, let’s look who Dallas’ forwards beyond the point totals.
Note to paid subscribers: New faces? I appreciate each and every one of you. Click here to see what to expect for the month. I’m gonna be a little more aggressive this month with my writing. As you can see, two paid posts a week is gonna be the norm. However, free subscribers will still get two posts as well. I hope you enjoy this one because I’ve always wanted to talk about Micah Blake McCurdy’s stat on winning and losing territory. At last, today is that day.