While I personally think Dallas’ needs are more complicated than “dude just get a top four defender and be done with it” there is no denying that an upgrade would actively help.
A lot of this depends on your mileage with Nils Lundkvist. And no, I don’t mean his on-ice value in a vacuum — I mean his on-ice value as something to leave alone in order to help the forwards. It’s not like Lundkvist is worse than Cody Ceci. So that’s a real discussion IMO, especially if you believe that Dallas doesn’t have the assets to do both.
As I argued today, I disagree with that sentiment. Dallas’ prospect pool is shallow, but it’s top heavy with three very different, and very solid forwards. Any one of them might be the blue chip talent along with added assets to bring back someone like Washington’s John Carlson, who is an impending UFA.
There’s still time for Carlson to be off the table. Washington is only four points back of the second wild card spot behind Boston, and five behind the first wild card owned by Buffalo. How for-real are both teams despite recent history arguing otherwise? I don’t know. I believe in the Sabres, but I also believe in their ability to screw it up down the stretch. The Capitals could very well make the playoffs. They could surpass the Islanders and Penguins for that matter, who are the same amount of points in front of them as Buffalo and Boston.
But Washington has to entertain the possibility. They have four tough games before the deadline (Philly, Vegas, Montreal, and Utah — okay so just three), which could make the decision easy or hard. If they’re trending down, then getting a solid package for Carlson has to be on the table. That would sure fix a lot of Dallas problems because however he’s done it at 36 years of age, Carlson is playing out of his mind this year.
Carlson has spent most of the last three seasons with Martin Fehervary and bits with Rasmus Sandin; two solid defenders in their own right, but certainly nothing elite. And yet Carlson has shown them up with all the juice he seemed to have in his prime. Does Dallas want a top four, playdriving defenseman to pair next to a top four, playdriving defenseman? Let’s gooo!
I know we want defenders to be able to defend (although it should be said that his in-zone defense is pretty nuanced), but the only thing better is constantly forcing opposing teams to defend. He creates a lot of chances on his own, and his playmaking from the backend is still a premium. He’s also as adept as ever at making the neutral zone his playground.
Yes, teams tend to shoot more with Carlson on the ice, but the net gain according to Micah Blake McCurdy’s model amounts to a top pairing defender who does a lot of damage on his side of the ice.
Dallas could use any amount of red (high activity) in the offensive zone. Needless to say, Carlson could single-handedly fix Dallas’ even-strength offense problem.
Carlson is the ultimate link between Dallas deciding to fix the offense versus the defense, since he arguably does both.
As far as cost goes, I’d imagine something like what the Islanders got from Colorado in the Brock Nelson deal. The Capitals are one of the few teams lately who haven’t been afraid to draft skill, as we’ve seen with Andrew Cristall and Terik Parascak. However, they’ve also done well in the power forward department, which means Dallas has them covered (as they have both). Given that they took a flyer on Sandin, I wouldn’t be surprised if a pick (a 2027 first), a prospect (Cameron Schmidt or Brandon Gorzysnki), and Lundkvist was enough to bring back Carlson1. The Capitals could easily leverage said assets for a turnaround if they wanted, since arguably their biggest flaw this season was a spate of injuries.
It might be prudent for Washington to close the book on the Alex Ovechkin era too, which would force them to get a little younger. As for Dallas, why not Carlson next to Thomas Harley? That instantly create one of the most terrifying top fours in the league. Doing so would require a full season and post-season end to Tyler Seguin to take full advantage of Seguin’s cap. But what’s the cliche? Fortune favors the bold. Carlson would be the most bold move of all. But it’s up to the Capitals on whether they decide to sell at the 11th hour.
I am definitely asking for Ryan Chesley to be part of this deal. I always dug his game, and while he’s looking like an AHL lifer, he’d be an upgrade over what Dallas currently has in Cedar Park.
Of course he would improve this team automaticaly and fast.
But, you would then not be able to bring some help on the forward side of things since Carlson would cost a lot.
Also, even if he has a limited no trade clause, are we sure he would come to Dallas and be 110% motivated after all those years in Washington with his old friends?
I am still more comfortable with any combination of Schwartz/Tolvanen + Murphy/Whitecloud
I really liked how Ristolinen (sp?) played at Olympics… Big, smooth, right handed, in his prime… I’m convinced!!!!
He’d be worth some value to get. Would a mix of maybe Steel and Laboosh work cap wise? We’ve got lots of 3rd 4th liners, whichever Phili wants! Add in the last number 1 playing in junior- can’t recall his name :))).
And we could keep him! What a concept!!!