Light Work: The doom reaches its fever pitch for Stars fans
Dallas gives up three goals in the final minute of regulation and — well, you know the rest.
Part of the “joy” of focusing on analysis instead of positive or negative feelings about a thing is that if you put in enough work, outcomes don’t shock you. That’s not to say I wasn’t actually shocked by a historical comeback of three goals in the literal last minute by Vancouver to tie the game. I actually wasn’t because I missed it. I stepped outside assuming the game was a wrap. I walked back in to overtime, thinking the studio booth was playing clips from some previous Dallas vs. Vancouver overtime game. When I realized it wasn’t, Vancouver scored to win the game, and I spent the rest of my time in an online fugue with my fellow Discorders who were in a justifiable sports rage.
But I can’t say I was shocked on a macro level. It’s why I don’t buy this “better now than in the playoffs” logic. It’s not about the outcomes. It’s about the habits. This was the thesis about the team without Miro Heiskanen on March 19. Here’s a pullquote for ease.
A lot of this analysis may come across as obvious, and indeed it is. But I stress these numbers not to say that the Stars’ defense is bad, but to say that their defense is positioned to be horrible, and potentially at the most critical hour.
To me, this is all quite black and white and I’m sorry to have to repeat myself. In fact, I’m sorry if repeating this point is a waste of your time. But Dallas just isn’t the same team without Heiskanen. In case you want to see the updated data, pay attention to the most important bars, which is every bar below the top one (top to bottom, it is Dallas’ share of even-strength goals, shots on net, unblocked shots on net, shot attempts, and shot quality).
From above average to below average in every shot differential category except for goal-scoring. What other takeaway is there? This should be about expectation. One of the reasons why I didn’t find myself getting sports mad about their collapse is that I can’t reasonably expect the team to perform to the level they’re capable of without their best player. Colorado fans wouldn’t do the same without Nathan MacKinnon just as Oilers fans probably aren’t sweating their losses without Connor McDavid.
To be sure, this isn’t the perfect analogy. I can read your incoming comments.
He’s just one player.
He isn’t to defense what MacKinnon and McDavid are to offense.
He might not even be Dallas’ best defender.
They’re too talented to be lost without him.
(Arguably the most important) Well they won’t have him in round one.
I happen to disagree with most of this. I think hockey is a strong-link sport, therefore Heiskanen isn’t just one player, but the beating heart of the defense in all three zones for almost 25 minutes a night. I believe he has developed into the defensive version of a MacKinnon. Thomas Harley is making a strong case, but he’s not there yet. And while they’re certainly too talented to be lost without him, his absence exposes their biggest weakness: a weakness that’s been present all season really — in part because it was arguably a weakness even with Heiskanen, as Dallas has lacked depth before and after Chris Tanev.
So what’s the point, besides pointing out what everyone already knows — that Dallas’ neutral zone is open for business like a Waffle House?
It’s a tired one, but I think it deserves emphasis once more. I don’t believe you can reasonably expect Dallas’ best without their best player. That doesn’t mean the flood should kill the electric in the house. But it does mean this is a team playing with a constant flood warning on the weather report. Isn’t this the thesis behind ‘your best players have to be your best players’?
This isn’t supposed to be a consolation, but a realization. If you can accept this, then you can accept some of these losses, however dramatic. You can certainly feel however they want, and I’m not trying to dictate your very real emotions. I’m not even trying to dictate your assessment of the team. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Stars fans this heated. But ideally, IMO, you can adjust your perspective a little: Dallas’ defense is bad without Heiskanen. Cody Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin are punching above their weight (Dallas is +80 and +53 in shots respectively when both are off the ice) and however well he’s handling it, Harley is having to adjust to a much larger role too, which doesn’t come without a cost. There’s just no world where this blueline isn’t hitting their shins on constant stumbling blocks.
Dallas is not, however, a bad team. Could that defense be their achilles heel against a Colorado? Obviously. Even poor teams are hemming them in their own zone. But if Dallas had to play Colorado without MacKinnon, how many Avalanche fans would feel robbed of their chance to win?
Dallas has been robbed. And they’ve been robbed in an avoidable way. The silver lining is that being being robbed doesn’t mean losing all your riches. That’s the best way to frame the rest of the regular season and a little beyond: that maybe, just maybe, the Stars can find in the ashes what they lost in the fire. A single win won’t change the narrative but neither does a single loss. Tomorrow they play Winnipeg. If they lose in regulation, they can’t officially catch the Jets because Winnipeg has more regulation wins. If they win, however, maybe they’ll be able to show others that they’re putting in the work to dig through the ashes.
It might not be the right consolation. But hopefully it sets the right expectations.
Maybe not the worst game the Stars have played but certainly the worst ending. The defense is TIRED without Miro; Esa had a shift where he was on the ice for 3 minutes plus. Harley looks like he is needing some rest too. I agree, some of our D men are punching above their weight. When Stars went up 5-2 they pretty much took their foot off the gas. Plus stupid penalties again. I hope Benn and Duchene had a players meeting to sort some of the character stuff out.
Ceci was clearly not the RD to target. Maybe the Stars are better positioned in the future with Rantanen but the lack of a competent RD will haunt Nill for the rest of his career.