Light Work: The puck pros and cons of Dallas making a clean break with long-time captain, Jamie Benn

It's time. Or is it? (It is.)

“My plan as long as I’m GM, he’s going to be a Dallas Star.”

Jim Nill could not have made it any clearer. But that was in September, when the world was still sold on Dallas as a proper contender. Sure they had taken a step back in losing Chris Tanev, and backing up the Brinks truck for an empty Brinks truck full of defensemen, but the future was still bright; Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque, Lian Bichsel. They’d be better. And then the Mikko Rantanen trade happened. And then…the Edmonton series happened. Now things are very unclear.

There’s a lot to unpack within that last statement. In fact, I’ll unpack it at D Magazine later this week. Paid subscribers will get an autopsy report about the forwards tomorrow. But right now, there’s a story that has actual evidence we can discuss and analyze: should Benn remain a Dallas Star?

There’s no rich history of whether or not sentimentality wins or loses. L.A. has kept Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty around well past their prime, and things have worked out okay for the Kings (Jim Niller notwithstanding). Conversely, the Lightning moved on from Steven Stamkos, and things worked out well for them too¹. I suppose there’s Pittsburgh. But Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still very good. It’s the team and management around them that has failed; in addition to the fact that their window naturally closed. However, these are all captains who helped win their teams Cups.

Where that leaves us, I don’t know. But I know this much…the choice to keep Benn is pretty simple.

Pros: Benn is still good

This carries an asterisk. But let’s say that Benn is brought back for $2M a year. Don’t worry, I’ll give you Benn’s actual projected price in a bit. Two million a year for a player who is good for a baker’s dozen worth of goals? Seems totally fair. Benn is still surprisingly productive even in his advanced age. And I’m not just talking about goals. I’m talking about the stuff of goals: his shift-to-shift offensive rating is extremely high.

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Again, we’ll get to the cons in a second. But Benn on a super cheap contract for a player that can still score feels a lot like value added. In addition, we already saw the genesis of this theoretical future in the Edmonton series, when he was on the fourth line.

However, I think the strongest argument in favor of bringing Benn back is not even about his goal-scoring, or Benn himself. It’s about the fact that Dallas has no cap, which means they have no cap to bring in somebody good. They have $4.9 million to figure out how to replace two left wingers that filled in their top nine between Benn and Mikael Granlund. Granlund has played for five different teams. Maybe the Finnish mafia element hits him in the feels and he’s willing to take a team-friendly deal. If not, who can blame him after the year he had?

Personally — and yes, I’ll expand on this for a “The Fix In These Stars” series² — I don’t think Dallas needs to bring back any of their UFAs. None of them are essential in the grand scheme of things, which means if Dallas is willing to get creative, every penny will count towards something bigger and better. Nonetheless, if you don’t have anyone else lined up to take his place, then what’s wrong with bringing him back?

Cons: Benn is about to be…less of who he once was

The last question is arguably why the Stars went after defective players like [insert every right shot defender Dallas has signed within the calendar year]. “We need someone to play those minutes!” No, you don’t. Anybody can eat minutes. It’s why Alex Petrovic ended up on the roster over Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin. Replacing minutes is easy. Matej Blumel can replace minutes. Adding value to those minutes is hard.

Benn adds goals. Which is good. But he also adds goals against. Which is, of course, bad.

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Diggin deeper into the micro aspect of it all, it’s easy to see why. His speed is not what it used to be, which makes him an ineffective forechecker, and his passing has become a critical weakness on a line featuring Wyatt Johnston — a player Dallas needs to build up with chemistry and effective linemates rather than tear down with players who don’t accentuate his game in any way whatsoever.

This, to me, is the essence of the case against: Benn can no longer play up the lineup. To find players who can, Dallas will need every ounce of cap to leverage that into upgrades and not just players who can add minutes. At that point, there’s no reason to pay premium for a voice in the lockerrom. Voices shouldn’t have to count so high against the cap. That’s what coaches are for³.

The Verdict

Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections have a pretty high success rate for a very simple reason: a lot of work goes into them. Sure they come out pretty, and all I have to do is right click and save an image, but within that image is a ton of math and theory that goes into getting these just right. So the following prediction is not a guess. It’s a mathematical prediction based on position, age, contract status, which hand the player shoots with, draft round, cap, years since the player was drafted, time on ice, goals, assists, and much more⁴. The end result? A 34 percent chance of two years, $4.4 million per.

So if Benn were brought back to the contract that he’s worth, Dallas would be the same team as this year, without Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund among others assuming the Stars couldn’t shed cap elsewhere (to be fair, I’m sure they will).

While I think the choice is obvious if Benn gets the money he deserves — and he does — I also think the choice is obvious if he’s willing to take a league minimum deal. There’s a good chance the Stars will stack the top two lines, upgrading Sam Steel to the third line. Benn next to Steel sounds like a good start for a meat and potatoes checking line. At that point, the real question is whether or not Benn deserves to be captain. Or is it time to hand the room over to another voice the way it was done in Toronto, with Auston Matthews taking over where John Tavares once stood?

Benn’s legacy needs no introduction or recap. He’s the organization’s only player to win an Art Ross trophy, and he’s second behind only to Mike Modano in franchise points. His fights with Jerome Iginla and Joe Thornton is the stuff of legend. The game in 2015 versus Montreal where Benn crushes Jeff Petry to create a turnover to connect with Tyler Seguin for a goal really felt like that year for the dynamic duo. But Benn’s value to the past does not project to add value to the future — at least not in the role he’s accustomed to.

Bringing back Benn to a cheap deal makes a lot of sense. Bringing him back for anything beyond that doesn’t. Losing Benn’s voice will be huge. But right now it’s not voices Dallas needs if they want to be back in the Western Conference Finals on the winning side. They need skills. And a way to beat Connor McDavid. It’s hard to see Benn anywhere in that formula.

1. It really helps that they had pro scouts who were able to find his successor in Brandon Hagel.

2. That’s a dumb title, but my first thoughts tend to be the worst ones. Let’s hope it changes.

3. Coaches that haven’t lost the room at least.

4. Which the nerds can read about in full, here.