Light Work: We (really) need to talk about the Dallas Stars forward lines
Something needs to change.
I know. It’s a weird time. In what universe is the second-best team in the league ‘in trouble’? Why should the second-best team in the league have to have some sort of come-to-Jesus meeting? This is the second-best team in the league. This is the second-best team in the league. This is the—
Something something, why the analytics are important, not believing everything plus/minus and wins/losses tell you, etc.
Dallas has the record of an elite team. I would argue that they are an elite team. But all of that comes with a qualifier: they are elite…for now. Now, that might sound ominous, and it kind of is. I didn’t mean to get all Unsolved Mysteries on you. But the Dallas Stars simply aren’t playing with a full deck. There are plenty of explanations. And tomorrow I’ll be writing about one of them for D Magazine (spoiler: Thomas Harley). But today I want to focus very briefly on the forward lines.
They need help. I’m not trying to be snide or funny. Just look.
Super quick, so you know what you’re looking at.
Top left quadrant, at the top: That’s the Jason Robertson line with Roope Hintz and Mavrik Bourque. They’re by far Dallas’ most dangerous line. They’re allowing a little the other way, but not so much that they’re a complete liability.
Top left quadrant, in the middle to the far left: That’s Mikko Rantanen with Sam Steel and Wyatt Johnston. Seems like Steel’s two-way ability isn’t enough to keep the trio from bleeding chances.
Bottom right quadrant, slightly higher: The defunct Justin Hryckowian line with Bourque and Back.
Bottom left quadrant, slightly lower: The defunct Robertson line with Tyler Seguin.
There are some rational explanations for the lack of synergy elsewhere. Injuries to Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene have derailed the veteran core almost completely. Granted, we can expect a bounceback from some of them. But to what degree?
To me, this is the dilemma ahead of the deadline. While the focus tends to be on the blue line — given Harley’s struggles, it certainly should — I think the illusion of clean numbers is critical here. Is Dallas really the second-best team in the league? I don’t think their record is a sufficient answer. Likewise, the Stars being the second-best scoring team is not a sufficient summation of their offense. Nor does the fact that they are getting goals enough to gloss over the lack of forward chemistry. The power play goals will come, and in fact, PP goals explain Dallas’ ranking. The Stars are 7th in scoring if only count even-strength donuts, but that also owes a lot to the league’s second-best shooting percentage. I know. “It’s sustainable if you can do it.”
But for how long? Dallas’ forward numbers feel like a big deal IMO. Dallas has a lot of good shooters. But right now 12 of their 15 forwards are shooting over 11 percent. The average shooting percentage is nine to ten percent1. This team needs a line to lead the way in all three zones. Not just one zone.
Bourque, Faksa, and Blackwell are the only ones not seeing rewards from the hockey gods.
Tinker w things now so you know what you’ve got come the playoffs. Give things enough time such that they aren’t a line blender. Because you never know until you know.
I would like to see Hyrco with Moose and Wyatt he has far more potential than Steel as a finisher and defends well