Light Work: What does the future hold for Mavrik Bourque?

More than you think. But not a lot for now.

Original artwork by Ryan Konzelman. Click here for the Stars Stack complete gallery.

For two straight games, Mavrik Bourque has been a healthy scratch. The same guy that warranted some space on the Calder ballots before the season after winning the AHL award for most points is now — kind of an afterthought. If you’ve been listening to Pete DeBoer’s interviews, he’s not mincing words. Players aren’t rotating in and out for “fresh legs” and other typical platitudes. DeBoer is playing the players that are getting him results.

On the surface, this feels like a contradiction. Has Bourque done anything to warrant a healthy scratch? On the surface, it certainly doesn’t appear so. His counting stats (including cheeseball stats like plus/minus) are above those he’s being scratched for.

On a per game basis, it’s even more pronounced.

Digging beneath the surface, Bourque also rates well in terms of his goal-scoring “cake” and owns all the right ingredients: he’s a plus in terms of EV offense (blue), a plus in terms of EV defense (orange), adds value on special teams (powder blue and purple; although his time has been extremely limited), and even has a positive impact on special teams; not only does he have above average discipline (green), but he draws penalties at a higher than average rate (yellow).

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Goals Above Replacement.

Now, this chart is not a smoking gun. If anything, a lot of chart skeptics will be laughing at Mikko Rantanen at the very bottom. Which is justified, because I laughed too. But Rantanen rating low has an obvious explanation: small sample size (among other things). Bourque, conversely, up until recently was a constant presence.

So what gives? Nothing. The coaching staff likes Oskar Bäck’s size. Blackwell plays with more speed, as does Dadonov, and Steel plays with more bite than the others. Notice a pattern? Those are common fourth-line traits. Bourque, conversely, doesn’t fit that traditional fourth line profile. He’s a player that will fit onto a more cerebral line, but that’s not his birthright right now. Not with Dallas’ depth. Tyler Seguin’s return will only cement this. If Bourque can’t crack the lineup now, it’s hard to imagine him cracking the lineup when yet another player will be pushed out.

I have Opinions about Bourque being a scratch, but this isn’t #FreeHonka. Bourque is a part of Dallas’ future, and while I wish he didn’t get the Nils Lundkvist treatment, the Nils Lundkvist treatment ended up working out pretty well for Lundkvist despite how his season ended.

So what does the future hold? Still plenty, IMO. I thought he looked good on the top line during that brief stretch. There was that game versus Colorado where he was getting into it with Nathan MacKinnon. While he doesn’t fit the traditional profile of a fourth liner, I’d argue his game has all the essential elements: he’s good along the walls, he plays fast despite lacking footspeed, he’s aggressive, he can pass, and he can shoot. It’s a testament to his game that he casually scored 10 goals his rookie year in fourth line minutes. So the future is still bright.

Besides. Dallas will need Bourque’s cheap contract next season when the cap crunch comes for everyone. He deserves to be in the lineup. But as the movie line-turned-cliché goes: deserve’s got nothing to do with it.

Programming note and a word of thanks

While this is generally not a place for recaps, I’ll do a postgame for tonight’s contest versus Edmonton. Should be published within 10-15 minutes of the game ending.

For paid subscribers, tomorrow we’ll be doing a Tales From The Clipped for new NCAA free agent signing Trey Taylor.

Sticktap to the recent influx of paid subscribers. Part of this entire enterprise is getting to write about hockey the way I would want to read about it. But being connected to readers in a more intimate way also means I want you feel like you have input too. I’m in the process of moving back to the DFW area after being in San Antonio for 25 years. It’ll be several months before I make it, but I’m hoping that access (I’m officially credentialed, although I fear that’ll last one month; maybe two weeks) will allow me to write more stories from different angles. If there’s something you think is missing, or something you want to see, leave a comment. This place isn’t mine. It’s ours. And I want it to feel that way.

Speaking of, sticktap to subscribers in places I didn’t think was possible: Slovenia (40 of you?!), South Korea, Nigeria, Ghana, Morocco, Thailand, Serbia, Indonesia. Don’t forget that everyone is welcome to the Stars Discord I started a few years ago when I knew I wanted to spend less time on Twitter (still working on that).

ICYMI: I was being a doomsayer on Gavin’s show after the Minnesota game.