I remember Gulutzan was asked about something- maybe specifically Hintz and Johnston on the PK- and he said they would see more time on it in the future. That was a few weeks ago now. It sure feels like it’s time to start cycling more guys on the PK units, especially when he’s started to scratch Blackwell.
It always strikes me as crazy when Blackwell gets scratched- and not just because of the PK minutes he eats (and eats well? That got away from me) but because of his entire effort/energy/whatever. Especially when he gets scratched for an Erne or a Bastian who do NOT PK and are really just adding… height? To the roster.
It feels like the answer is keep Bastian or Erne as a 13th but both feels like 950k excessive?
It's really appreciated that you took the time (in bed?) to answer all of the questions.
The position to "not do anything" as solid merits considering all the arguments behind it. I am far from convince that Nill will do so. I expect we trade for "NHL experience" once again.
Nill a very good GM, but I cannot get on what basis he was named the GM of the year 3 times in a row.
In my book, a great GM builds a team with some kind of identity first.
Anyway, as for the mailbag goes, I would do it on a monthly basis.
This mailbag format is incredibly well done, you're really hitting the sweet spot between deep analytics and accesible discussion. The point about the Stars lacking any real identity compared to Colorado's speed or Florida's forecheck really resonates... it's like watching a team play checkers when everyone else figured out they're playing chess lol. I've noticed this alot with teams that over-rotate their roster mid-season, they lose that core DNA. Your patience argument on waiting till Seguin's money clears makes way more sense than panic trading.
Never actually appreciated how popular mailbags were. I think because they can feel "easy" it makes me less 'interested'. Not that I don't love it. I do. But you know how a pretentious writer can be. "But it doesn't challenge me!" Stupid I know. So lay it on me.
What should we do with the mailbags? Maybe a monthly mailbag from now on? One every two months? Perhaps something different? Another form of subscriber interaction maybe?
Currently 2nd overall in the league despite not clicking right and in a slight slump. No players performing at an unsustainably high level. New coach. A few injuries. A team with deep playoff experience that’s been knocking on the door. You don’t punt on this season. Nill will rightfully add before the deadline.
Is there a chance this team is just handling the regular season where there are trying to hit the WCF for the FOURTH time in a row kind of like the KC Chiefs got to? Not intentionally, but I would bet it’s hard to get up and get hungry when you’ve padded yourselves some points and really just need to get to the tournament. I do wonder if mental fatigue plagues most of the guys.
For about 5 years now the Stars have looked like a team that desperately wants to win games with the minimum amount of effort possible. That's why they often seem to play down to the level of their competition when playing last place teams, and often losing to them. Also why they look mostly dialed in when playing top tier teams. They just aren't a good team. They haven't lost a single game this season where it felt like they played well enough to deserve a win but the other team just played better, or got that bounce. Conversely, they most definitely have won games they weren't even in the realm of deserving based on their play. They just need teams to play worse than they do because they won't play better than just about anyone. A recent example, the Kings game. Both teams were garbage.
They can't seem get their goalies and skaters to both play well in the same game. On the rare occasion that happens the old minimum effort creeps in and they screw their goalies out of a shutout, or better stat line. Over the last 5 years their goalies should probably have about a dozen more shutouts combined if not for unnecessary goals against in the final couple minutes of games. I swear they hate their goalies.
I appreciate a quality/well thought out hot take, but I don't see this kind of stuff as analysis. It certainly happens. But I don't believe players are fundamentally lazy. On the other hand, I do believe coaches are fundamentally conservative. So that's my question: how do you square collective laziness with systems laziness?
Observation is analysis. Laziness is a general term for this team. They definitely do have players that are not, but it's not their top scoring talent. Faksa, Back, Steel, Blackwell, Robo, Erne, Lundkvist. These are the only ones that move with a purpose and keep skating, the first two being the only ones that can actually win board battles.
It all starts with little things, if your linemates are having to hold the puck too long before entering the o-zone or theyre left shorthanded at a critical moment because you're coasting to the bench to do ye olde outside edge, single leg stop for a change, you're lazy. If once you get within a stick length of the puck carrier and stop skating and start reaching, you're lazy. If your "heart rate is in the 70s on the bench" after playing 30 minutes ice-time, you had more to give. You're lazy. If you can't bother to back check because you're feeling sorry for yourself that you turned the puck over trying to hero your way through the entire opposing team, you're lazy.
Coaches cannot execute their own systems, players must. That being said, I don't think systems can be lazy. I do think systems cannot work unless you have players capable and/or willing to execute them. Failing that and still trying push a system isn't lazy, it's rigid, inflexible and stupid. If you don't have the players that can work in your system and you can't swap them for players that do, you must change the system. You can really only work with the skills you have available.
With that in mind, they have the skills available. The only thing failing in what Gulutzan is trying to get out of his players is that extra 1% everywhere. I don't even think they know what that means outside of clichéd post game interview clips.
I don’t know that I’m that much of a doomsday person. In fact I’m inclined to say they can’t be a fake good team with 3 WCF in a row after being in the finals in 2020. They are a good team. I just think it’s hard to stay dialed in and hungry for a long period of time.
I definitely think Wyatt and Rantanen need a go getter that won't be pushed around and can finish. Nothing fancy. Ritz or Erne. Wyatt has lost his hunt and Rantanen just likes to lose the puck right now. A product of trying to dangle through 4 defenders all the time instead of using his linemates.
I've advocated for Dutch with Robo and Hintz and when put together in Anaheim they were the only line that did anything and looked dangerous their entire shift.
Bottom 6 gets mmuddy because you have so many of the same type player. I like a big boy line of Fox, Benn and Erne/Bastian. In past, Benn has fed off of Fox's physicality when they're on a line together and seeing your captain make himself known drives energy. Just look at what Gudas did. Back/Steel/Bourque on 3. I don't even hate the idea of Ritz/Steel/Bourque as a third or Back or Fox on 1 to keep the puck in the o-zone and actually win board battles.
David, You should give this a go more often. It is an enjoyable treat. Your are still at the top of your writing powers. Thanks,gs
Gerald. Been here since jump street. Thanks my dude. As a pledge over at the other place no less, you've been a major supporter so that means a lot.
I remember Gulutzan was asked about something- maybe specifically Hintz and Johnston on the PK- and he said they would see more time on it in the future. That was a few weeks ago now. It sure feels like it’s time to start cycling more guys on the PK units, especially when he’s started to scratch Blackwell.
Awesome work as always!
Blackwell should never be scratched. He has some serious lows, but the highs are worth it. And thanks as always.
It always strikes me as crazy when Blackwell gets scratched- and not just because of the PK minutes he eats (and eats well? That got away from me) but because of his entire effort/energy/whatever. Especially when he gets scratched for an Erne or a Bastian who do NOT PK and are really just adding… height? To the roster.
It feels like the answer is keep Bastian or Erne as a 13th but both feels like 950k excessive?
It's really appreciated that you took the time (in bed?) to answer all of the questions.
The position to "not do anything" as solid merits considering all the arguments behind it. I am far from convince that Nill will do so. I expect we trade for "NHL experience" once again.
Nill a very good GM, but I cannot get on what basis he was named the GM of the year 3 times in a row.
In my book, a great GM builds a team with some kind of identity first.
Anyway, as for the mailbag goes, I would do it on a monthly basis.
Terrific question from Matt btw
Maybe this year we shouldn’t go for “all in”
Great article, thank you so very much!
GO STARS GO!
Appreciate it Ivan! And thanks for being here newbie!
My pleasure!
This mailbag format is incredibly well done, you're really hitting the sweet spot between deep analytics and accesible discussion. The point about the Stars lacking any real identity compared to Colorado's speed or Florida's forecheck really resonates... it's like watching a team play checkers when everyone else figured out they're playing chess lol. I've noticed this alot with teams that over-rotate their roster mid-season, they lose that core DNA. Your patience argument on waiting till Seguin's money clears makes way more sense than panic trading.
Great article David! Mailbags are always fun and interesting.
Haha. That brings me to another point I'll comment on, but thanks Tim.
Never actually appreciated how popular mailbags were. I think because they can feel "easy" it makes me less 'interested'. Not that I don't love it. I do. But you know how a pretentious writer can be. "But it doesn't challenge me!" Stupid I know. So lay it on me.
What should we do with the mailbags? Maybe a monthly mailbag from now on? One every two months? Perhaps something different? Another form of subscriber interaction maybe?
Really like the idea of a monthly mailbag. The game chats are also nice (even if I’m mostly on the discord instead).
Currently 2nd overall in the league despite not clicking right and in a slight slump. No players performing at an unsustainably high level. New coach. A few injuries. A team with deep playoff experience that’s been knocking on the door. You don’t punt on this season. Nill will rightfully add before the deadline.
Loved this article, always special to get to pick your brain and thanks for the shout out!
Is there a chance this team is just handling the regular season where there are trying to hit the WCF for the FOURTH time in a row kind of like the KC Chiefs got to? Not intentionally, but I would bet it’s hard to get up and get hungry when you’ve padded yourselves some points and really just need to get to the tournament. I do wonder if mental fatigue plagues most of the guys.
For about 5 years now the Stars have looked like a team that desperately wants to win games with the minimum amount of effort possible. That's why they often seem to play down to the level of their competition when playing last place teams, and often losing to them. Also why they look mostly dialed in when playing top tier teams. They just aren't a good team. They haven't lost a single game this season where it felt like they played well enough to deserve a win but the other team just played better, or got that bounce. Conversely, they most definitely have won games they weren't even in the realm of deserving based on their play. They just need teams to play worse than they do because they won't play better than just about anyone. A recent example, the Kings game. Both teams were garbage.
They can't seem get their goalies and skaters to both play well in the same game. On the rare occasion that happens the old minimum effort creeps in and they screw their goalies out of a shutout, or better stat line. Over the last 5 years their goalies should probably have about a dozen more shutouts combined if not for unnecessary goals against in the final couple minutes of games. I swear they hate their goalies.
I appreciate a quality/well thought out hot take, but I don't see this kind of stuff as analysis. It certainly happens. But I don't believe players are fundamentally lazy. On the other hand, I do believe coaches are fundamentally conservative. So that's my question: how do you square collective laziness with systems laziness?
Observation is analysis. Laziness is a general term for this team. They definitely do have players that are not, but it's not their top scoring talent. Faksa, Back, Steel, Blackwell, Robo, Erne, Lundkvist. These are the only ones that move with a purpose and keep skating, the first two being the only ones that can actually win board battles.
It all starts with little things, if your linemates are having to hold the puck too long before entering the o-zone or theyre left shorthanded at a critical moment because you're coasting to the bench to do ye olde outside edge, single leg stop for a change, you're lazy. If once you get within a stick length of the puck carrier and stop skating and start reaching, you're lazy. If your "heart rate is in the 70s on the bench" after playing 30 minutes ice-time, you had more to give. You're lazy. If you can't bother to back check because you're feeling sorry for yourself that you turned the puck over trying to hero your way through the entire opposing team, you're lazy.
Coaches cannot execute their own systems, players must. That being said, I don't think systems can be lazy. I do think systems cannot work unless you have players capable and/or willing to execute them. Failing that and still trying push a system isn't lazy, it's rigid, inflexible and stupid. If you don't have the players that can work in your system and you can't swap them for players that do, you must change the system. You can really only work with the skills you have available.
With that in mind, they have the skills available. The only thing failing in what Gulutzan is trying to get out of his players is that extra 1% everywhere. I don't even think they know what that means outside of clichéd post game interview clips.
I don’t know that I’m that much of a doomsday person. In fact I’m inclined to say they can’t be a fake good team with 3 WCF in a row after being in the finals in 2020. They are a good team. I just think it’s hard to stay dialed in and hungry for a long period of time.
I definitely think Wyatt and Rantanen need a go getter that won't be pushed around and can finish. Nothing fancy. Ritz or Erne. Wyatt has lost his hunt and Rantanen just likes to lose the puck right now. A product of trying to dangle through 4 defenders all the time instead of using his linemates.
I've advocated for Dutch with Robo and Hintz and when put together in Anaheim they were the only line that did anything and looked dangerous their entire shift.
Bottom 6 gets mmuddy because you have so many of the same type player. I like a big boy line of Fox, Benn and Erne/Bastian. In past, Benn has fed off of Fox's physicality when they're on a line together and seeing your captain make himself known drives energy. Just look at what Gudas did. Back/Steel/Bourque on 3. I don't even hate the idea of Ritz/Steel/Bourque as a third or Back or Fox on 1 to keep the puck in the o-zone and actually win board battles.