Mailbag Yapping: Trouble in Dallas, trade targets, the right move, systems analysis, Thomas Harley's ghost, and more!

Alright yappers. Let's get yapping.

For the most part, I feel like I’ve been even-keeled this season. I haven’t had any moments like this one, where my frustration with Rick Bowness’ philosophy reached a sports boiling point. Bowness is, of course, now employed by the Columbus Blue Jackets who must have found this round of player blaming incredibly inspiring. Sorry Eric. One love, brother.

My head’s been feeling like a victim from Scanners. Because of that, maybe the sports analysis is ready to stop being polite. The last two games were bad. Not just bad, but bad in a way that left me feeling like Ren. The Kings are not a good team, weren’t fully healthy, and outplayed the Stars. The Ducks are a very flawed team, missing literally their entire top line, and outplayed the Stars. Why is this happening?

Granted, my recollection of the Kings game is slim, as I watched it while resting in bed, and yes, occasionally falling asleep. But I thought the numbers checked out. Versus LA, Dallas was outshot 24 to 16, and the Kings controlled 58 percent of the share of high danger chances. The Ducks nearly doubled up on them in shot attempts, pumping 62 pucks toward Dallas’ net with the Stars mustering a meager 36. The Ducks also had a massive edge in high danger chances. By a 66 percent margin. That is madness to me. Not the losses. Not the pad performances. But the fact that we so routinely fail to see the ceiling of this team, whether they’re healthy or not, and whether they’re playing a good team or not. Why does this team consistently let their opponents dictate play?

That’s my question. It’s a also — quick plug — a question I got to expand on for D Magazine’s YouTube show. I know. If you can get past my middle-aged Danny Trejo appearance, you’ll be fine. But it was a lot of fun, and it made me feel ‘big time’ just like those henchmen from Carlito’s Way¹.

Anyway, if I’m going in a thousand different directions, it’s because my head is too. Thankfully, readers of the Stars Stack made this a lot easier by getting down to business and asking great questions.

Reasonable targets for the TDL and assets the Stars can give in return

Thanks Pat!

I think most any player is reasonable. A lot of layfans seem to forget that if trades were about the best assets, then Dallas never gets Chris Tanev for pennies on the dollar, or think of Steve Yzeryman giving Jake Walman away. All that has to happen is for a GM to receive the assets they want. So if someone wants some picks and a middle six forward, and Emil Hemming fits that bill, then voila!

So depending on your rubric, if a team likes Dallas’ assets, and Nill is willing to truly empty the cupboards:

• Rasmus Andersson

• Blake Coleman

• Jonathan Marchessault

If we’re only thinking in terms of assets as having a universal value:

• Connor Murphy

• Brett Kulak (connection to Gulutzan, it should be said)

• Boone Jenner

As for ideal targets, that leads us to the next question.

I would implore Nill to hold off on spending what little assets we have on this year’s team. Even during the winning streaks, nothing I have seen makes me think this is our year, even with one solid addition and their current play is only reinforcing that thought.

Appreciate it Christi!

And I actually agree with this 100 percent. You made your big move at last year’s trade deadline. This is the team you traded away the future on. Live with it. See where it goes. See how far they take you. You’re not burning a year just because you’re not positioned to make a deeper run than previous seasons. If anything, you’re burning future years by trading more assets on a roster that might not be good enough even with decent help.

However, this is the NHL. Where no owner could live with the optics of his GM not Doing Something.

Concern 1. What is Harley’s role on this team? He’s not leading PP or PK or even strength time… I’m not saying he’s washed (please don’t be washed) but what’s his role?
2. Waiting until after Olympic break to make roster moves/trades as Nill has said he wants to feels like either the “good ones” will be gone or whatever is left will be $

Always welcome, Ash.

This is a great question. It’s potentially (and this is a stretch but humor me) the psychological component in all of this. Why would we get Harley’s best without a power play role and some Humor Us penalty killing minutes? I don’t know how much weight it has, but it makes an intuitive sense. At the same time, I don’t think any hockey player, who has been born of this sport and bled for it, is inherently lazy (not that you suggested this). All athletes are nothing if not proud. And so even that bit of pride should fuel Harley to be better, which has me wondering just how much his injury is actively behind him.

I don’t see Otter or Harley being overused at the Olympics (good thing IMO), but how worried are you about the Finns energy level after that and going into playoffs?

Thanks Nina.

This is tough. My worry with things like this are injuries. However, wouldn’t that be the case regardless? Energy level, I suspect, experiences something similar, but different. For a goaltender, because fatigue is such an inherent part of their position, I would think that the Olympics might play a factor, in the same way an excessive amount of regular season games for a starter will factor into their postseason play. Harley and the Finns, on the other hand, I suspect will be fine.

Hi David. Let’s cut to the quick with Jason Robertson. Does he even want to be here past this contract? He’s almost invisible in Dallas. You’ve got to feel that’s why he was passed over for the Olympic team. Put him in Florida or Montreal and he’s front page news instead of something stuck on the organization’s shoe.

Thanks Tim.[Al Borland voice]

It’s important to be careful about how we choose to discuss the perception of players. Keep in mind, I’m not talking about you specifically. But in general, didn’t we have this phenomenon with Russian players for so many years? Labeled “enigmatic” for so many years. Wasn’t this the “book” on Dougie Hamilton? He was too much of a nerd to hang out and get drunk with teammates. Or so the rumors said. But what difference does any of this make? Any meaningful relationship requires work. People don’t get along via magic. They make plans. They commute. They spend money on food. They allot time from their schedule. I assure you. Show me a difficult player. And I’ll show you a difficult front office.

Maybe a bit of a weird question: Do you think it is necessary the Stars (management) goes „all in“ (in terms of trades/upgrading the roster etc.) this year or can it wait til next year, in a sense?
I mean of course you should want to win all the time, but looking at the Central Division this year and this being Gulutzan‘s first year, maybe its not the right time.
I also feel like the roster will look pretty much the same next year (here’s hoping we sign Robo), so its not like the Stars are losing out on a significant player(s) from this year, come next year. I hope this makes sense.

Appreciate it Matt.

Along with Christi, that makes three of us. Wait until Tyler Seguin’s money is off the books. Then you have money, more assets, and an increased cap.

Ride the wave. I’m still in the clouds about Our Stars and that the Moose wears victory green. Naive optimism and avoiding hockey tech talk? Guilty. I’m a man child who can’t wait until next puck drop.

Gracias Jerry!

First off, this is well said. I know this place can feel stodgy, maybe even a little uptight? Like I’m trying to receive a Michelin star or something. But that’s only because I’ve pretended to be a professional this whole time. I am not. I love sports that are just life, boiling up inside you. I know the histograms may betray my man child roots, but I assure you, they are there.

Personally, I don’t see any division here. Athletes exist to push and break boundaries. ‘Push it to the limit’, as the Scarface song goes. Who isn’t stoked about what Macklin Celebrini is doing? I can’t imagine being a Sharks fans, and getting to experience that up close. Enjoying hockey for the humanity and the challenge is why we watch to begin with. Don’t let my bar charts get in the way. They were never trying to.

Can you simulate some trade scenarios involving Robertson? At some point, we need to realize that the writing might be on the wall.

Thanks Pat!

Is it? Robertson being an RFA still puts Dallas in the driver’s seat. Jim Nill is not known for leaking information, even if we know that Robertson was shopped at one point. Just saying: don’t let any Marek nonsense cloud any judgment.

As for simulating trade scenarios, none of these aged well (to be fair, it was after a down year), but I did, and it was a lot of dumb fun at least.

David, do you think Jim N. will put Tyler on Season Ending LTIR? If so will he look to add defense or offense? I can’t see Tyler being affective if he does come back this year. I know he has a history of coming back from injury sooner but?

Appreciate it Barry!

Nill will do what Seguin wants. Like Pancho, If Tyler Seguin feels like he can make it, regardless of his physical state, Seguin will play. Again, with the LTIR rules this year, Dallas can only leverage all $9.8 million of Seguin’s cap if he’s done for the year and will never play again this season, or in the playoffs. If he is, then Dallas only gets a cap relief of $3.82 million, which is equal to last season’s average salary on a replacement. So I really feel like Dallas will only be able to use $3.82 million (over seven million when combined with the natural deadline cap space) when all is said and done. Seguin is too committed, and too driven to be kept off the ice. Will that make him a quality on-ice player? Probably not. But he’s gonna try, and Nill will let him.

As for adding, I suspect Nill will look at adding both.

If we put Robo up with Wyatt and Rant we have a complete killer 1st line.
I’d use Ricky, Hintz and Bourque as “2nd” line.
Isn’t that better than having top 2 lines that are using 4th line wingers?

Thanks CScotty! (and for being a ride or die subscriber since jump street)

Stacking the top line is an interesting thought. I’ve never been super into the idea because I feel like having an entire line with average speed is not ideal. But it’s hard to argue with the math.

However, this takes us back to cost/benefit analysis. Does the benefit of stacking the top line outweigh the cost of unstacking everything else? I like Justin Hryckowian. I’m convinced. I’m drinking the Kool-aid now. But I’d much rather see him take over the Sam Steel role next to Johnston and Rantanen. There he won’t be asked to overachieve, whereas next to Hintz and Bourque, he would. And I don’t believe he’s ready for that role.

David, do you think the pathway to beating Colorado in the playoffs is through the power play?

Appreciate it, Andrew. And great work over there.

And no. Not even close. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that Colorado has the best PK in the league. They have strong underlying numbers too: third in expected goals against per 60 while shorthanded. They also do it by dividing up icetime evenly with all their penalty killers.

Conversely, the Stars rely on a small collection of players to do the job. Which is all the more odd since only six more teams spend more time on the penalty kill than Dallas.

Granted, the series would come down to a lot more than just Dallas’ power play versus Colorado’s penalty kill, but if Dallas can’t score on the PP in the playoffs, they’re toast regardless of opponent. (Keep in mind, I don’t believe their PP will continue sliding, but still.)

The 2025 Dallas Stars are a bit of a hockey oddity to me. Their combination of systems and (tenuous) identity have me struggling to come up with contemporary comparatives. Do you have any recent teams you’d compare them to?

Always good to have you here, Tyler!

And no. All the best teams have an identity. Colorado’s speed. Vegas’ breakout ability. Florida’s forecheck. I still have no idea what I’m looking at when I watch Dallas. I know what they’re trying to do. In fact, one of the things I’ll do doing for paid subscribers is parse through some of Corey’s numbers. I was hoping to do it this week, but may have to move it to next week. Needless to say, they are an oddity, but an oddity more for the contradiction between process and outcomes than anything deliberate.

Is this a Jim Nill “I like where we’re at” kind of year when it comes to moves?

Appreciate it, Mike

What’s funny — besides the amount of mileage Stars fan get out of Nill’s line and I mean that sincerely — is that I would argue that this is the year where he should like where the team is at for sanity sake, and to not get pulled into a terrible trade market like he did last season (again, I don’t really count Rantanen as part of the trade market, but that’s neither here nor there).

What kind of impact do you think Bichsel coming back will have on the team, and do you think JN is waiting on his return before deciding what we might need on the blue line?

Thanks Chris.

I don’t think so. Lian Bichsel may have an outsized impact due to his size, but he doesn’t have an outsized role. He’s still just a young, third-pairing defender, which is exactly as it should be. But while fans should love Bichsel because he’s a fun defender to watch, he’s still growing into a modest role for the time being. Bichsel will change nothing.

Maybe too last minute but question:
What tactics/systems do you think would maximize this stars roster as is? (Aside from the obvious of don’t play 28 and 46)

Appreciate it, Ash (again!)

I feel like a lot of the simplest stuff gets understated for the impact it can have. The fact that it “doesn’t matter” who to play in a bottom pairing role is precisely how you end up with Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin in the first place. Well it doesn’t matter where he’s gonna play. He just needs to soak up minutes.

So maximizing the roster will help whatever systems/tactics adjustment is needed. For example, if the cap meant nothing, and you could yo-yo whoever you wanted in and out of the lineup, I would absolutely just cycle through my best AHLers. Tristan Bertucci (injured, unfortunately), Trey Taylor, heck even Luke Krys. As far as armchair coaching goes, I’d make the team as boring as possible. Bring back Bowness hockey. Sure it may not be fun, but they’d win. Lean into the special teams difference (assuming the PK rights the ship). This team clearly doesn’t need a ton of chances. So make sure the other team doesn’t get a ton either.

1. “You think you’re big time?! You’re gonna DIE, big time!“ That Pacino line lives in my head, rent-free.