Monday Mailbag: Doomers versus dreamers, Jamie Benn's captaincy, one stat to rule the doom, and the future

We had a good one for today's mailbag.

It’s weird timing, to say the least. It’s the second pre-season, after all. Dallas’ first-round matchup with Colorado is now certified. With Mason Marchment, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell all out due to maintenance on Saturday, the Stars were without their entire blueline (emphasis on entire). Utah, it should be said, is actually a solid group. And no, Gavin Spittle has not inceptioned me. Along with Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Edmonton, and L.A. — they’re one of the more dominant possession teams. Logan Cooley continues to show why he belonged at the top in the 2022 draft, and they have no real weaknesses outside of having a poor shooting percentage.

But a loss is a loss. And Dallas keeps racking them up. All of a sudden the weather is catching up to the climate. That means the tone in the discourse continues to crystallize for each respective Stars fan faction. The doomers saw Saturday’s win as further proof this team won’t be able to handle Colorado’s offense. The dreamers saw a depleted lineup play for nothing while the real hockey awaits the weekend, along with a clean slate. I suppose there are people in the middle, but why trust anyone that can sit comfortably on a fence?

That’s why I want to give the Stars fans in my Discord a solid pop. Hockey is not just a sport. Not for fans. It’s a community. And the attitudes of said community are dictated by how well or unwell the team is playing. I’ve been to a lot of different forums for Stars discussion. As someone with an account on literally every fan site, blog, and underground bomb shelter for Stars talk, I know how hard it can be to have a level-headed discussion — or just have fun — when emotions are running their highest. And right now not a lot of fun is being had.

The Stars Discourse channel has been awesome for finding the right balance in becoming a chamber without an echo. There’s a channel for venting, a channel for healing, and some really smart voices in the community hang out there too. I don’t mean to sound like some condescending dog dad, but I’m proud of that place. As I try to cut down on social media for Maintain My Sanity reasons, you’re more likely to find me there posting clips and talking all things Stars on gameday. Just saying.

Do you think that any of the D men for the Texas Stars could help at this point?

No. Not even close. I’ve seen fans kind of gas up Alex Petrovic, who is totally fine as an AHL defender, but here’s the thing: the reason the blueline criticism reached its boiling point is because warm bodies were treating the same as value added. “Sure Chris Tanev is elite, but he’s gone and somebody needs to play those minutes so let’s just find the minutes.” Texas has a bunch of defenders who can add minutes. But that’s not what makes a team better.

More to the point, Dallas doesn’t need just anyone. Ideally, they bring in someone who can replace Nils Lundkvist. They kind of have that in Trey Taylor, who is unfortunately LHD. I did some film room analysis about him for paid subscribers because I think he’s genuinely interesting.

But he just barely made the jump from college to the AHL. I only mention him because I think he’s someone who could potentially add value on the bottom pair in a year or two. Thanks Jet!

What is your honest assessment of the Rantanen trade right now? I realize there were not many good RHD options at the deadline so that’s not a fair gripe, but this team just doesn’t seem the same since he got here.

Here we go. So this is tough. I’m of many minds on this. For one, any GM who gets the opportunity to trade for a player of Rantanen’s caliber, you do it. The real question, however, is whether or not the cost was too high in proportion to need? That will ultimately be the question.

What “hurts” the move for Rantanen — if we’re being doomers — is not Rantanen himself but the Mikael Granlund/Cody Ceci trade. Dallas’ weakness has been its blueline depth for years. By not adding value to the blueline, the Stars went from being sort of average to outright defective in the light of Miro Heiskanen’s injury. This is not hindsight analysis. The blueline was and has always been the fix. Focusing on someone like Brandon Carlo would have been preferable than focusing on a luxury (offense, which wasn’t a problem, and only looked that way due to the defunct power play). I’m not walking back my argument at D Magazine. I like the Rantanen move. Not enough is said about the long-term value of the move, and how high the ceiling’s just been raised over the next five years.

So again, I like it. But the lack of a blueline move is felt in more dramatic fashion without Heiskanen. Thanks Christi!

Similar question to the first one surely Petrovic can’t be worse than Dumba , last year he was at least serviceable . Kinda longing for Joel Playoffs Hanley .

There’s a reason Joel Hanley ended up being useful for Calgary. He doesn’t just add minutes. He adds defensive value. Thanks Finlay!

What is your favorite stars analytic point right now to keep us from being full 100% dooming

Yes! Now we’re speaking my language.

Part of what I don’t understand about data skeptics and combative eye huggers is that a lot of analytics are intuitive. For example, if the goal of any given shift is to outscore the opponent, then why ignore the players that help you do this just because they didn’t have a direct hand in it? How many times is a goal-scored based on the movement of its five-man unit? If a player’s presence leads to the team outscoring their opponent, then that seems pretty important.

That’s what a stat like Goals Above Replacement attempts to define. In this case, we’re focused here on a single number giving credit to Dallas’ even-strength shot creation rates, goals, assists, and penalty differential. Who are the top 13 teams in this category? (On mobile this image may be cut off, but Winnipeg, New York, and Colorado are on the bottom. Just FYI.)

Boom. Easily the best in the West.

Now, on one level this is obvious: “no duh! Of course Dallas’ offense is good.” This stat is not saying that Dallas’ offense is good. Although it’s definitely telling you that. It’s also saying that Dallas has a ton of offense to spare. At even-strength, they’re not just shooting hot, but they’re shooting well; currently third in the league in high danger chances per 60, behind Carolina and Edmonton. Their forward skaters are also helping win the special teams battle, as they don’t take many penalties, and they draw a lot: the recipe is there for Dallas to always be in a position to score. Granted, this is only one stat, but it’s significant IMO. Especially for a first-round matchup with an Avs team. Thanks Honk!

Has Benn dropped off a cliff? He doesn't seem noticeable, or have the ability to spark the team in the ways he has in the past. Is it a byproduct of him lacking a vocal leader (Seguin, Pavelski, etc) to help steer the ship?

It’s important to frame Benn’s success in recent years. Which is to say: Benn is as Wyatt Johnston does. Benn ranks high in terms of shift-to-shift rating over his tenure with Johnston, but look at his drop this year compared to the previous two.

In some ways I think Benn deserves credit for being a good passenger. While it’s always been clear that Johnston has carried Benn since jump street, Benn has stayed relatively productive. The work he put into training with Luke Chilcott in 2019 really paid off. It’s a testament to Benn that he didn’t buy into “the NHL is not a development league” sleaze and tried to reinvent himself into something more sustainable despite being the ideal candidate for regression: a power forward.

However. Dread it. Run from it. Regression still arrives.

Benn is experiencing the endgame for all players. There’s nothing to be ashamed of in that regard, nor is it fair to ask him to be timeless. As for the other element, and questions about Benn’s captaincy. My interest in making sense of performance is being able to define it. What kind of player makes an ideal captain? To what degree does their captaincy add value beyond the symbolism? What defines a good captain? A lot of wins? Fast starts? Strong finishes? Playoff success? Defensive play or offense? If we can’t answer these questions, then I don’t really care.

That’s not to say people’s opinion aren’t valid if they question Benn’s captaincy. I just think as a piece of analysis, I can’t learn anything from making an assessment one way or the other. Edmonton and Florida are symbolically led by their best players in McDavid and Barkov. Carolina and Winnipeg are symbolically led by their role players in Lowry and Staal. Washington’s offensive symbol leads the way with Ovechkin while Vegas’ defense wizard is the captain with Stone.

Which way is the best way, and where does Benn fall short? If you can answer that riddle then you need to be running this place and not me. Thanks Noah!

2nd question Klingberg was out there. Should have looked to bring him back. Was always a gamer and even if he has regressed, would at least be able to get puck out of the zone on a regular basis.

You’re not gonna see me badmouth the man they never called ‘Kling Kong’ but should have. It’s hard to imagine a universe where Pete DeBoer is having to scratch all three of Nill’s offseason defensive signings. Is that an indictment of those moves — that the best way for Dallas to improve the defense is to scrap an offseason’s worth of work? You bet. But there was no world, especially with the term Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin have, that Nill was gonna completely reinvent the blueline.

Ok, maybe I have TWO questions - Canes just signed some euro league defenseman who is apparently widely regarded as the best non-nhl defenseman. Is there a reason we didn’t do this in light of our current state or is this something the team explored?

Yes. Alexander Nikishin. Considered “defensive Kaprizov” I can’t remember the last time a KHL player has received as much hype as…well, Kirill Kaprizov and now Ivan Demidov. He’s also just a ton of fun to watch as some crazy throwback with a modern makeover. Carolina drafted him 69th overall in 2020. Obviously a nice pick. The thing with KHL players is that they don’t have a great relationship with the NHL. Pretty much as soon as the Russian professional league was formed, L.A. was the first to find out the hard way with their attempted signing of second-round pick Vjateslav Voinov how difficult the relationship would be, and how strict some of the KHL’s contracts are. (Arizona/Utah prospect Dmitri Simashev was signed to sizeable contract by the KHL, which is why, like Nikishin, Utah won’t be able to bring him over whenever they want.)

In addition to the contracts, there’s the stigma of Russian players themselves. We’re not that far distanced from watching Russian players be treated like garbage by jamokes like Don Cherry on a national telecast, and having this sentiment be normalized. These players still have to learn the hard way more often that not, often without translators, and that doesn’t count the difficulty a geographical transition alone can be, as the brief saga of Vadim Shipachyov in Vegas demonstrated. This is why the Ivan Demidov situation — in which he was able to terminate his KHL contract before its official end date — was so unique, and potentially symbolic. The KHL doesn’t want the NHL to be afraid of drafting its players. Thanks (again) Christi.

Well I hate to bring this up but someone said in November or December that he didn’t think Winnipeg was the real deal. Well I think not only are they the real deal they will play for Lord Stanley’s Cup. I don’t know what D men will be available after the season but Nil better find one and he better find a way to keep Duchene.

Heh. That someone was me. Hey: when the facts change, I’m willing to change my mind. One thing I will say in my defense is that Winnipeg has had to go on an absolute heater in order to improve their even-strength offense to 10th in EV goals per 60, and 8th in expected goals. They were 17th and 13th respectively in each category by the end of December. Just saying. However, to me being right or wrong is less interesting than being useful. To what extent was my lack of quality analysis instructive? Two things: the development of Dylan Samberg (who has become the Heiskanen of the north), who is the defender national broadcasts claim Brock Faber is, and Cole Perfetti. Rick Bowness’ meager deployment of both the previous year really masked what they were capable of in my eyes, so I didn’t see that coming. The development of players is hard to predict but not impossible.

Dallas is seeing that with Lian Bichsel and Mavrik Bourque. Both players have real potential to grab larger roles in the near future, although Bichsel being a lefty makes things tricky. As for Duchene, while I agree, the money he can make elsewhere will likely be too much. I know fans like to think about the “hometown discount” but what job would you be willing to make less money on for the sake of vibes? That is by no means a rhetorical question. But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. Let’s see how far Dallas can go. If they’re out within two rounds, I can’t imagine Duchene feeling like he belongs to a team of destiny. If they put together a magical run, maybe Duchene takes one last team-friendly contract.

Let go of your familiar tools though, and you’ll see that it’s not all bad though. Sure, a player like Nikolaj Ehlers is off the table, but who says you can’t find the next Duchene? Like a Claude Giroux, Reilly Smith, Taylor Hall, Yanni Gourde, Gustav Nyquist. And don’t forget: Brent Burns. Thanks Johnny!

What do you think was Nill's best and worst moves this season were?

Best: making room for Bichsel. Worst: Ceci. It’s not that Ceci is worse than Dumba and Lyubushkin (although statistically he is), but that he’s exactly the same: a defender in the top four who adds minutes but not value. Thanks Aaron!

And for those that love the data-driven hockey analysis, check out Aaron’s Substack, which is free!

If all forwards are fit and available, who would be in your ideal 4th line?

Realistically, Sam Steel-Mavrik Bourque-Evgenii Dadonov. To me this shouldn’t even be a question. Thanks Martin!

The season isn't a total wash yet, but assuming this team doesn't just get on some miraculous heater...it will be another year of contention wasted. F' Mark Stone. I'm not sure Nill can construct a roster this deep/stacked on the forward side of things again given the cap situation and the lack of any real trade assets going forward. That's not to say they won't win the Cup in some of the years to come, but Benn & Seguin both age & decline while our contention window slides another year.

I can’t call it wasted. The injury to Miro Heiskanen is the dark cloud hanging over a potential worst-case scenario. Nobody expects to have their best player injured in their most critical hour. And it’s nobody’s fault except Mark Stone. As for the rest, we’ll see. Nill was willing to part with all the pucks this deadline. Maybe he’ll start parting with players in the offseason. Thanks Brad!

Last time we got to the final we were bad down the stretch maybe will be the same this year but unlikely . If we do get knocked out early really got to question why bring Jamie Benn back when it might cost you Duchene or Granlund . He may have hit has wall . I know Nill loves him .

Since comparisons make for easy analysis, here’s another comparison: Harley-Heiskanen and Lindell-Tanev or Harley-Lyubushkin and Lindell-Ceci. That’s the difference between a bad patch, and just bad. I’ll have an in-depth preview of the Colorado matchup, so while the blueline is a scary thought, Colorado has to worry about Dallas’ fowards too. So get ready for a good ole’ fashioned shootout.

I don’t have much to say about Benn. I suspect Dallas will do their best to keep him. Maybe the Rantanen move helps keep his cost low; a shrewd way to keep negotiations…clear, shall we say. But except for museums, I’m not the nostalgic type. Let tomorrow’s leaders take over. Like Wyatt Johnston — looking like one of hockey’s next great centers, and more than just a goal scorer.

Thanks (again) Finlay!

Not a question but I haven't been able to shake the feeling that last year was *THE* chance, at least with this veteran group. I just can't see them getting past the Avs/Knights/Jets right now. But going into the playoffs with no expectations is less stressful I guess :)

The good news is that it makes things real simple: get through round one. If they can make it to round two with a healthy Heiskanen, Dallas is the juggernaut everyone thought they were. Obviously, that carries a lot of asterisks — like getting a Heiskanen who is 100 percent — but still. Otherwise, I think that’s a healthy mindset. It’s hard to judge a team anyway without their best player in a strong-link sport, so grading them on a curve is critical. Thanks Nina!

Maybe an off-season question but I love the Rantanan deal long term. Is the real long term D answer a trade for a controllable D for one of our forwards we have to pay? Nice to have Harley, Miro, and a lockdown D for the next 5 years or so.

I think so. The Esa Lindell deal means Dallas is locked into the following tetris:

Thomas Harley—Miro Heiskanen

Esa Lindell—TBD/Ilya Lyubushkin

Lian Bichsel-TBD/Ilya Lyubushkin

While I would have liked to have seen the Stars figure out a way to let Harley run his own defense pair, use the money for a RHD, or get the Gavrikov-Heiskanen pair I’ve always wanted (Gavrikov is a UFA), this is not magical Christmas land, and what’s done is done. Regardless, if the Stars want to change the defensive makeup during this Cup window, it’s gonna require some forward tetris. Thanks Jeff!

Who are your favorite Stanley's cup winner ?

This one’s tricky. As much as I hate to give Toronto credit, the stalest jokes have the clearest expiration dates. Playoff chokers. The Maple “Laughs.” We get it. But Ottawa, who I actually love, won’t be the stiff test people are hoping, no matter how many hits Brady Tkachuk throws that the telecast wants to make you believe is better than shot possession. That leaves Tampa and Florida who will tear each other to shreds, and a bizarre Washington team that I don’t believe is a contender with a capital C. In other words, they have the easiest path, and are backed by strong goaltending. They’re not my Cup favorite though. There I still have to favor Florida. Unlike Winnipeg, defense starts with their forward group. They have the best neutral zone defending in all of hockey, and they’re arguably better than they were last year with the additions of Seth Jones and Brad Marchand (however flawed the two are). In other words, the Cup runs through the Atlantic IMO. Thanks Håkan!

Where does Marchment actually rank per the stats analysis… my eye test has a strong shot, very poor skater, puck giveaway machine, poor positioning on offense, shift to shift a strong 4th liner, with a once a game strong shot???

Let’s look at the complete breakdown.

This is easily one of the most bizarre profiles of any player I’ve seen. Essentially, Marchment does all the little things right offensively except of course…help possession. He’s a single-layered forward who affects Dallas’ bottom line by taking more penalties than he draws. To be fair, you have to wonder what his bottom line value looks like with Seguin healthy all year. Thanks CScotty!

What would be your ideal choice of lines

Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen. Robertson-Duchene-Johnston, Benn-Bourque-Seguin, Marchment-Steel-Dadonov. The current forward groups are possession black holes. They need to try something different and that starts with breaking up the top line IMO. Thanks Pat!

Odds that Ben is back next year(cup or no cup)

Does Tyler returning change this team just by his personality regardless if he is a point per game guy or a possible healthy scratch?

What trick does Dallas need to pull out of the bag for the playoffs that they haven’t used in the regular season? Do the forwards need to play like their hair is on fire or always have one eye towards defending? Does the defense need more aggression or to flippity doodah to particular spots on the ice for forward break outs? Or does everyone just need to get out of Jake’s way?

Unfortunately you can’t trick your way into playoff success. I keep going back to trying different lines. Dallas has unprecedented depth; the kind of depth I don’t think pro hockey has seen in years. In my proposed fourth line above, the three have a combined 109 points (!!). For your three fourth liners to be averaging 36 points breaks my brain. It’s obscene. Thanks Schluck!

Who gets traded in the off season to free up cap space and regain a draft pick or 2?

Matt Dumba, obviously. The thing about trading players to make room is that nobody has a dumpable contract. It’s also unlike Nill to trade someone just to trade someone. Plus everyone has some degree of trade protection. The only player who makes a lot of money but doesn’t have trade protection is Jason Robertson, and he’s going nowhere. Thanks Jay!