Monday Mailbag: How to Better Market Hockey, Blueline Talk, and Stray Observations From Dallas' 4-3 OT Loss to the Avalanche
At last! We got a lot to talk about.
Hockey hasn’t officially started but it certainly feels like it; even with all the B prospects and veteran also-rans littering the roster. Sunday night was particularly special because there wasn’t just the usual gang of Dallas prospects, but former Stars prospects too, between Riley Tufte (three preseason goals so far!), Joel Kiviranta, and Fredrik Olofsson.
I’ll get to some stray observations down below, but as we finally start to shift this puppy into full drive, let’s talk about the Stars Stack. Again I want to thank the subscribers, and a special thanks to the paid subscribers. While the art has been fun (and there’s plenty more), I’m gonna try to think of new ways to invest back into the Stack. What that means, I don’t know, but I’m gonna weigh as many options as possible to bring you the coverage you crave. I don’t know what that means either, to be honest. Does it mean figuring out daily coverage? Another running feature? I’m not sure but I want to show thanks without promising something I can’t deliver.
Regardless, let’s talk about what you can expect. Right now the plan is for three posts a week: two free, one paid. Paid posts will either take the form of video analysis (Tales From the Clipped), or something similar to the Jamie Benn deep dive from last week. Not counted in this will the postgame podcasts. I’ll upload these the night of, so stay tuned:
Thursday, October 12 vs. St. Louis
Tuesday, October 17 vs. Vegas
Thursday, October 19 vs. Anaheim
I’m marking these because the first three happen to be games I can cover (can’t do weekends). These will be 10-15 minute ‘shows’ following the stray observation format. Nothing fancy; just the meat and potatoes. Speaking of, Dallas played last night!
Stray observations from their 4-3 loss to the Avalanche?
The real story of the night was Dallas’ backup netminding: Wedgwood and Gibson were phenomenal. In case you didn’t see it, check out the chances Dallas gave up.
It was a shooting gallery from the jump.
There are no real takeways after a preseason game filled with only a handful of active NHLers, but let met just say that early returns on the Esa Lindell-Nils Lundkvist pair were not good. Does that mean anything? Not really. Pause for concern? Meh. The reason I bring them is because I’ll be tracking a pet theory: Lindell doesn’t just need a puck mover next to him in order to be effective, he needs a certified number one defender.
Logan Stankoven continues to impress because Stankoven…is NHL ready. I’ll talk more about him in the mailbag, but he had several plays in OT that required him to defend Nathan GD’damn MacKinnon one-on-one and performed admirably.
I went in as a skeptic of Tyler Seguin with Mason Marchment (who started out with Sam Steel), and came out somewhat hopeful. Seguin had moments where his speed/puck handling combo were on display, and even landed a solid reverse hit on Mikko Rantanen of all people. Marchment fought the puck a little, and still plays too loose, but the effort was there, and so was the talent, nearly scoring on a breakaway at one point. If he can live comfortably in that middle, I think he’ll be fine.
I thought Sam Steel looked really good. At least until the power play. Granted, he’s not gonna ever be on the power play once the regular season begins, but it was still jarring to see him look so out of place. Nonetheless, at even strength, I liked his movement.
Grushnikov was the only defender besides Lundkivst that stood out. I continue to be impressed by his rush defense.
Towards a Better Game
If you could change 3 NHL rules what would they be?
Damn Justin. Guns blazing here.
If I think too hard about this one, I’ll be here forever, so let me just go with three changes relevant to what interests me most.
New Rule #1: Adjusting the CHL/NHL Transfer Agreement (But Not the Way You Think)
For those that don’t know, the CHL-NHL Agreement is the rule that ensures CHL teams get to showcase their best talents beyond a prospect’s draft year. This is why CHL players can’t go straight into the AHL; unless of course, that player will turn 20 by December (hence why Christian Kyrou, despite being drafted just last year, will be eligible to play for the Texas Stars).
However, this is not a matter of “get rid of it” and voila. I’m a big believer in development. CHL teams are compensated when CHL players make it to the NHL, but is it enough to maintain the NHL infrastructure? This won’t be a popular opinion, but sometimes you have to just take it on the chin. I wouldn’t mind more favorable financial terms for the CHL with the “return” being that each team can grant one of their prospects post-draft exceptional status (exceptional status in the CHL is when a prospect is good enough to play a year ahead of schedule; if it’s good for a year early, why not a year late?) to allow them into the AHL early if deemed necessary.
The CHL may not be the only pipeling for young talent, but it’s still one of the NHL’s primary sources of it. Why not invest? I’m not an infrastructure nerd, but I’m fascinated by how something as simple as less priority on one type of transportation (the car) and more focus (bicycle accommodations, pedestrian pathways, green spaces, etc) on flow over access can have a positive economic impact. Flow over access: investing in roads may not be sexy, but for hockey to progress, prospects need a better path. (Not hiring dippy MFers like Kevin Constantine and Bill Peters to oversee development also helps, but I’ll save that rant for another day.)
New Rule #2: Introduce NHL Gold Drafting
This is old hat for some but for those that don’t know what Gold Drafting is, it was named after Adam Gold for his mathematical proposal to reward teams for winning after being eliminated from postseason contention. Mathematically, the weakest teams get the best picks but they’re no longer incentivized to lose. I’m not gonna break it down because Micah Blake McCurdy wrote a better breakdown/analysis of it than I ever could. For a more casual (but still thorough) analysis of it, likewise John Matisz. The big catch here has nothing to do with the math, and everything to do with the trade deadline. If “tanking” teams become part of the trade market, then the supply can’t meet the demand. Personally I don’t care. The trade deadline is fun, but I’d prefer seeing a better on-ice product than looking forward to artificial dates.
New Rule #3: Delay-of-game penalties don’t get erased just because you allowed a goal before getting back possession.
I think most people would agree this one just flat out sucks. It doesn’t make any sense to be rewarded a power play based on your opponent violating the rulebook, only to be denied the power play because what? Because you F’ed up before it could even start? It’s one of the few easy fixes that would increase scoring without being offset by some other harm.
Sidebar: A lot of people love the idea of extending the power play to its allotted time, but the problem with that is its potential to incentivize teams to play more conservative, and also demand more penalty killers on their roster. No thanks.
Would Stars ever consider rebranding Dallas As cexas Stars - Texas’ hockey team- and The ahl club as Austin or Cedar Park Stars?
No. Dallas is such a strong sports market, it’s basically its own state. And the Stars are a pretty strong brand. When you consider the potential that other Texas markets have to bring in their own team (Houston has been a prime candidate for years), and the rivalry it has potential to create…
Give me your best idea to grow hockey in Texas. Also, why does the NHL suck at marketing?
The NHL sucks at marketing for reasons Dana White of all people laid out: out-of-touch old men (no offense old timers). Gary Bettman’s record is shit. Hockey culture is shit. It’s all shit. Unfortunately there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. Which is why I’m reminded of an old Thomas Kuhn observation and how ways of thinking don't change when facts change to change people's minds but when entrenched generations die out.
However, don’t mistake for being cynical. I may come off a certain way to unfamiliar fans, but I wouldn’t follow this sport without being an active, hopeful participant. I deal in criticism, not negativity. I want to see the sport grow. I don’t know anything about the NBA. But I picked a team at random, in this case the Milwaukee Bucks, went to the Fans tab, and found a fun little Keeping Score feature that is nothing big, but clearly required the tiniest bit of creative effort that you simply won’t find on an NHL website.
Small stuff like that, and big stuff like making hockey equipment affordable is the key. And I don’t mean some “20 percent off” bullshit either. I mean the kind of work that Hockey 4 Youth and Their Opportunity do.
All About Stankoven
At what game number, barring injury from an NHLer, is Stankoven brought up because he is killing it in the AHL?
It won’t happen. The only place for Stankoven if he’s going super-saiyan in the AHL is in the top six, and who loses their top six role in Dallas? Marchment is the easy candidate, but he plays left wing: a position of weakness. Sean Shapiro clarified something that needed clarifying last week (in response to my opinions about the Logan Stankoven debate): Neither Jim Nill nor Pete DeBoer are having these discussions, which means the idea that Stankoven is a theoretical option is meaningless as a talking point.
I don’t disagree with that. That’s why I favor pure, uncut analysis. I want to know about coherence and philosophy. Is Stankoven NHL-ready because he’s good enough, or because the cap politics finally let him to walk through? If Stankoven is not ready, is it because he’s not good enough, or because the GM has to justify his veteran contracts?
For those that are new here, it’s also something that deserves clarification. I’m not an insider. I don’t have any connections, and there’s nothing I write that’s ever meant to be suggestive on behalf of Stars personnel.
On that note, Stankoven looked blistering to me. I’ve never thought highly of his top speed. He covers a lot of ice because he moves a lot, not because his top gear is easy to access (like Hintz). However, watching him stick with MacKinnon out in the open, at 3-on-3, was a bit of eye opener. The bigger deal was watching him make plays in the defensive zone. He’s extremely adept at timing his connections at the very last minute, maximizing space for outlet options, while isolating the pressure on him, opening even more space in transition.
Kid’s the real deal.
Blueline Talk
Dallas’ structure, team defense, excellent goaltending and responsible forwards helped the team get to #3 in goals against last season. PK was great also. Yes, defense looked worse down the stretch and in the playoffs. Still, why do we not give the d core a bit more credit?
This is a fair point. Although let’s talk about goals against. It’s important to distinguish between goals against, which measures an undetermined relationship between defense and goaltending, and defense — which would require looking at things like shot attempts against (CA/60), unblocked shots against (FA/60), and shot quality against (xGA/60). Judged that way, suddenly Dallas’ defense ranks a lot differently: in this case, 15th, 12th, and 7th, respectively. I agree that Dallas’ blueline is unfairly maligned, and or worse, treated as outright deficient. Even by those defensive metrics, they rate average (shot attempts allowed), above average (unblocked shot attempts allowed), and borderline elite (shot quality allowed).
However, I think these discussions miss the broader issue. Defense is no longer about what you do in one zone. It’s about what you can do in all three. As I wrote at D Magazine and discussed on Ryan Chambers’ show, the blueline’s inability to facilitate offense is kind of important. So I agree that the blueline is not as bad as it’s made out to be, but their lack of dynamic qualities stands out on a team so close to being an outright Cup favorite.
If a random Stars defenseman, let’s call him Ryan, were to suddenly go missing, how many days can we wait before we’re obligated to call the police to search for him?
I would say neither. Instead let’s let Jason Arnott decide.
How bad does this team miss Roman Polak
The lack of points/trust in Lian’s last season in the Shl made most of us fans largely overlook his d+1, only got a taste once the world juniors started. Now after the tourney and training camp, is there a more realistic projection for lian? How high could his ceiling be really?
You know where I stand on Lian Bichsel.
I’m generally not big on player comparables. They always feel like either an oversimplification of a player’s ability, or a misunderstanding of it. However, when I think about his ceiling: in this case, defensively aggressive, imposing physicality, able to make reads, and not lost offensively — sounds a lot like Adam Pelech.
For those that aren’t familiar with Pelech’s game; dude’s a beast.
There are some critical differences, though. Bichsel is way smoother breaking out of the zone (calm down Islanders fans, I’ll get to his strengths in a second). Pelech is more of a classic board-and-out type, whereas Bichsel is willing to maximize space with movement, goes to the middle, and in general has softer hands. However, Pelech has much better overall awareness. He’s actually closer to Lindell, which muddles my comparison but now you know why I hate comparisons. Also, I don’t want to jinx anything by putting Bichsel in the God Tier of shutdown defenders like Chris Tanev. So there’s also that.
what to do with Suter? Biggest question mark moving fwd. can’t take a coaching staff seriously that doesn’t play Miro, Harley, and Lindell the most minutes every night
Nils with Lindell Man that’s a brutal 3rd pair. Give them the most sheltered minutes ever
I try to stay away from the Suter discussion at this point. But not because I think fans are missing the nuance. On the contrary, the fans get it. Rather, there’s no delicate way to discuss Suter. And I try to add to these discussions where I can. The thing about Suter though is that the worst aspects of his game will be insulated as long as he’s next to Heiskanen. I do think Bichsel holds the key here. If Lundkvist and Harley are good, and Bichsel looks ready as Suter further declines…that’ll be what breaks the first barrier. The desire to improve the blueline will be too great.
Over/under on goals scored by Miro this year?
Under. Normally I would say ‘over’ given Miro’s increase in shots under DeBoer (and his own admission that he’s been working on his shot) but the problem is that a) he’s more dangerous on his strongside and b) Heiskanen is never gonna be the type of offensive player that someone like Dahlin or Makar is. I think it’s high time fans come to grips with the fact that the thing that makes him special — a modern day shutdown defender in a puck mover’s gifted body — is also what informs his shortcomings. He’s one of the game’s best territorial defenders. That’s good enough for me.
How will Dallas deploy their blueline this season to bring a more balanced and stronger defensive approach as opposed to last season? #TexasHockey
This is an interesting question, and one I had to re-read. The more general answer is that we’ll probably see Suter-Heiskanen, Lindell-Lundkvist, and Harley-Hakanpaa to start. This will give the blueline balance in terms of having the symmetry of offense with defense.
However, I think there’s a more interesting question (whether intentional or not) about which blueline configuration crafts a stronger defense from within. It’s quite possible that Lindell-Heiskanen/Harley-Hakanpaa as the top four provides a stronger defensive foundation. However, until Bichsel is ready, or should Suter fall off a cliff (more than he already has, rather), Dallas won’t be a team with a strong blueline. It’ll just be Heiskanen’s Helpers for a long time.
With Left wing being a possible question mark for the team, what are the odds that Duchene ends up playing there at some point this season? Or would it be more likely that Dadonov would slot in at LW and someone would take his place? It is odd looking at the roster that for so many years was a glut of LH shots, but now feels balanced or is RH dominated.
Related but follow up, is it odd that the Stars have so many players that are listed as Center as their Roster position? In the current expanded roster, there are 5 LW (Including Benn) and 5 RW. Of those 10, only 4 are NHLers with Blumel in the close but not close enough zone. Is this something that most NHL teams have, or is this a carry over from defensive responsibility and intentional by this organization.
Boy it’d be great to get the Johnston to Stankoven chemistry for the next 15 years started sooner than later! Stanky has looked really impressive, I’d say he’s standing out so far just as well, if not better, than Johnston did last camp. Moving Daddy to Duchene’s line seems to be a good move... leaves Marchment causing havoc on 4th line!!!