Monday Mailbag: Load management, Oettinger vs. DeSmith, more Robertson yapping, and Tchaikovsky's 'Children of Time'

And a lot more.

As always, one love to everyone who is subscribed to this place. I hope you all had a great weekend, and if you didn’t, I hope better days are ahead.

Also, a quick apology for the lack of recaps this weekend. I thought it was funny hearing Stars fans talk about how boring the Philadelphia game was. I thought it had a decent pace, all things considered, and I found it to be way more entertaining than the Pittsburgh game, which had about six hundred whistles and game stoppages above replacement. But more than that, it gave me the chance to start working on a truly comprehensive preview of the Dallas vs. Minnesota series. That thing will be a novel.

I suppose that’s the theme for these Stars; hope for better days ahead. This weekend wasn’t really a rejoinder to Dallas’ recent struggles. Yes, they got three points out of it. But they were outshot by both teams (looking only at shot attempts); two teams who had no business playing the Stars that tough given the Penguin’s injuries, and the Flyers’ raw lack of talent. Just two even-strength goals from Dallas all weekend.

I don’t think it’s hypercritical to call the performances for what they are. But it’s only that — criticism. It’s not judgment. While Dallas has hit a bad patch, I don’t think their bad patch represents anything close to what we can expect once the playoffs begin (similar to last season but for different reasons). The Stars have been a tough nut to crack all year. They won early in spite of themselves, regression arrived, and then they reversed the regression itself, settling into a genuine rhythm, and becoming an elite team that played like an elite team instead of merely getting elite results. The process and the outcomes eventually aligned.

That the new narrative has given way to the old one isn’t super surprising given the injuries. But more than that, I think it leaves us with a team who has the ability to surprise. Might they surprise us again once the first round begins? For better or worse, I think we can count on it. I still don’t know who Glen Gulutzan’s Stars are. But I know they can’t be counted out.

With that out the way, let’s get to the mailbag!

Given the schedule and the late season lilt we’re seeing from the Stars, how do you foresee any rest/ load management for the team the rest of the way? It seems to me it would behoove the Stars to make sure Heiskanen, Esa, Harley, Robertson, Johnston, Duchene, Benn are as fresh as possible going into round 1 given that any deep run through the West is going to be a slog for the Stars.

Dom Luszczyszyn wrote a really great article on this several years back. Other leagues do it. Why doesn’t the NHL? Simple: parity. According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, there are five points projected to separate Dallas and Minnesota from home-ice advantage. If the Wild start closing the distance, how much incentive is there for Dallas to keep their top players on ice if it means losing home-ice advantage? Dom mentions another point that is worth re-emphasizing here: hockey culture. The league and its dippy talking heads are all about what puts the most hair on your chest. There’s no such thing as taking the night off. Remember in 2013 when Patrice Bergeron played through torn rib cartilage, a broken rib, a separated shoulder, and a punctured lung? That’s the standard. Players are expected to play come hell or high water, and the dudes abide.

At this point, with the Avs (realistically) out of reach, is it time for some load management down the stretch to prepare for the second season? You still have to fight off Minny for home ice, of course. Even if they get a point a game that would do it.

To add to the question above, one reason why I think it’s smart to initiate load management is that parity or not, things like home-ice advantage have become extremely volatile in recent years, to the point where they’re not advantages at all. The biggest challenge is overcoming a Game 1 loss. That’s not to say that just because there’s been increasingly more statistical variance to home-ice that teams shouldn’t aim to get it. Just that if it’s the difference between Mikko Rantanen getting hurt in Game 82 versus a tanking team like Vancouver and home-ice in Round 1, then what the heck are we even doing here?

Something Dimitri has expressed at least a couple of times on the PDOcast is his concern that Nils Lundkvist might struggle with getting outmuscled in front of the net and along the boards in the playoffs. What are your thoughts?

Not to speak for Dimitri, but I never read his comment as “I’m concerned that Lundkvist will struggle in the playoffs” and more like “Dallas will likely be concerned that Lundkvist will struggle in the playoffs.” I could be wrong. For the most part, this sort of stuff gives me a headache from all the motion that comes from having my eyes roll over and over. And I’m not talking to you, Ron, but in general.

What I hate about this discussion is that it assumes a monocausal narrative for postseason performance. Small player struggles in the playoffs, therefore being small is a problem. Anyone watch Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn in the playoffs last season? Plenty of size. Plenty of suck too. Hasn’t Darnell Nurse been a problem for Edmonton? Cody Ceci wasn’t small. Tyler Myers and Lian Bichsel are small buildings. Have they been perfect lately?

What I’m getting at is that just because the playoff atmosphere requires more physicality doesn’t mean physicality is the most consistent gamestate for each player. It’s not. We still see pretty goals in the postseason. Special teams don’t go away. Skill never leaves. If anything, the playoff atmosphere increases the premium on skill. You can’t brawl your way into scoring goals. So sure, Lundkvist may struggle in front of the net and along the boards in the playoffs. But what about Tyler Myers struggling to control the puck along the boards? What about Lian Bichsel losing a footrace into the corners? What about all the breakouts that don’t happen? What about defenders punting chances in the offensive zone and letting a counterrush go the other way because they didn’t have the offensive mind to extend that offensive zone shift and instead opted for lazy offense with a lazy shot?

I’m not saying Lundkvist won’t struggle. Nor am I even calling into question the playoff narrative about what it takes to win. But what I am saying is that all traits are affected by playoff hockey. Small players struggle. Big players struggle. Playmakers struggle. Shooters struggle. Nobody has it easy in the postseason. Well, except the TV analysts. They have it easy. Analyzing replays of how hard a hit was earns the big bucks.

This is probably less of a mailbag question and more of an article topic, but are there any trends that have emerged in the Sznajder tracked games since your last breakdown?

This is something that I’ll be looking to unpack later. Admittedly it’s hard to justify sifting through the data for a team like Dallas only because they’ve been such a different team since the end of January. Corey is still just one man that inexplicably doesn’t have an NHL gig (hopefully Rich Peverley’s first order of business), and so we have a small smattering of games in the beginning and a small smattering of games over the last couple of months.

For a team of two halves like the Stars, it’s just hard to take too many lessons, even if the broad strokes are still well-defined. Dallas is still a weak shot-generating team. But if we’re only looking at them since January 22, they’ve shot all the way up to top 10 in high danger chances per 60, and rank 16th in scoring chances-for. That’s a major jump from the bottom 10 categories they were in to begin the season. Looking only at defense, or chances allowed, and they’re even better; top five across all categories; shot attempts against, scoring chances against, high danger, you name it. My personal theory is that somewhere along the way, Dallas’ roster finally started to figure out Glen Gulutzan’s second option — which is very different than Pete DeBoer’s — on breakouts.

Erne, Bastian, Hyry, Faksa... Who is your pick for annual unlikely playoff hat trick?

Hyry. Because only Finnish players need apply. How awesome was that shorthanded goal? I know Hyry will be one of the first sent down once healthy bodies start coming back, but you can tell that like Matt Duchene, he’s gotten better as he gets more distance from his concussion.

Oettinger vs DeSmith

What are the odds we seen Casey DeSmith get some post-season starts in net? IMO he’s been the better goalie throughout the year, with the obvious caveat of a much smaller workload and accompanying benefits. But Otter IMO doesn’t deserve “no doubt every game starter” in net status; he’s been meh after a couple of meh post-seasons. The Stars have a terrific goalie TANDEM but their starting goalie isn’t anything particularly special. I would want to leverage that advantage and give DeSmith some starts. Obviously, once games are played if one or the other clearly stands out you adjust accordingly.

Slim to none. I don’t agree with it, but this is the nature of the beast. When you have a starter with Olympic creds and a big contract who is loved in that locker, he gets the benefit of the doubt no matter what happens. However, I think my analysis of Oettinger here and here have paid respect to the fact that he does have a better track record in the playoffs, even beyond the famous Calgary series. Enough to deny DeSmith consideration? No. But enough to strengthen that benefit of the doubt.

However, I do agree in general. This is what always bothers me when I hear coaches question their own team’s mentality, and whether they try hard enough or “got it between the ears” like we’re seeing in Toronto and Detroit. Or think back to how no one cared to question Rick Tocchet on his responsibility when two star players tore the room in half. Is this not the job? What is a coach for if not to be the communicator in the room? “You’re the man Otter. As long as you wear that sweater, you always will be. But you’re also a man of this team. And this team needs DeSmith until you fight him for it; until you can rip it from his tallons. You don’t have to like it. You shouldn’t like it. But for right now, I need you to respect it. I need you to handle it with the same grace as Casey does when he backs you up. Because he also has to know that you respect him, and that we’re all in this together making the same sacrifices.” Et cetera.

If coaches or management are afraid of a player’s reaction to their decision, then the coaches or management don’t have much control do they?¹ Even beyond just the drama of it all, I think Kevin Woodley, who knows better than anyone when it comes to goaltending, that this might be the postseason — when goaltending is at an all time low — where at least one team is willing to go there and play shadow games with a rotation to disrupt the shooters. It’s a stretch, and even Woodley admits it, but I suspect the team that does it will get the most bang for their buck. Could that be Dallas? It won’t be. But hopefully they won’t be afraid of trying it should they need it and not before it’s too late.

With the season winding down, which player represent the best surprise and the biggest disappointment?

Let me just say up front that I don’t believe such a player exists on the disappointment side. I don’t say that out of cheap diplomacy either. Early on this would have been easy: Thomas Harley, Matt Duchene, Jake Oettinger, take your pick (I’ll judge Oettinger once the season’s over — again, Oettinger’s situation is unique in that all goaltending is under water right now). But when you consider how the season has progressed, the compressed schedule and lack of practice time, and the way the roles have had to be filled, I think a strong case could be made that the players are the ones making things work. If anything, it’s the environment working against them. And I don’t mean that in a negative or critical way. Just that the core and the support group are the ones responsible for executing Glen Gulutzan’s very different take on the system. Even a whipping boy like Sam Steel can’t be targeted here. Not after what he accomplished as part of DJ Steel’s debut album.

To me the biggest surprise is far and away Justin Hyrckowian. As I’ve brought up over and over again, I really thought they’d pick Arttu Hyry out of camp just based on his size and skill (Hyry is not super skilled or anything, but he does some things that skilled players do) alone. I got caught up in the cynicism of feeling like Hryckowian getting in fights and instigating kerfuffles was a distraction away from his puck play, and the cheap and easy way to earn a path to the coach’s heart — especially a coach preaching an increased physical presence. It all just felt too clean, especially after what I had seen in Cedar Park, where his playmaking was a lot less evident in the same way that Roope Hintz’ was when he was a Texas Star (let this be a lesson: playmaking is the hardest skill to assess in the rough and tumble north/south hockey of the AHL).

Nils Lundkvist deserves a shoutout but we’ll get to him in a bit because there are some…haters??

Humor (me) us

This is an offseason question but if/when Toronto has a fire sale, any interest in Maccelli or Nick Robo? Obviously depends on what the return would be and cap questions but speaking strictly in hockey terms. Or, just for fun, would you give up Robo if Nylander or Knies were available? I want him to stay but we can have fun hypotheticals too.

As readers know, I’ve been a Maccelli truther for a minute now. It’s been tough seeing Craig Berube’s goofy treatment of the Finnish playmaker in Toronto. Despite getting bottom six minutes, he’ll clear 40 points this season with only 71 games played. It’s unsurprising that better usage has led to 13 points in his last 15 games. The same could be said of Jason’s younger brother, who is more of a pure shooter. Listen. I’m convinced that Justin Hyrckowian is a serious NHLer. I learned my lesson. But I need more convincing that he has top six upside. Which is why I would love someone like Maccelli or Robertson next to Roope Hintz. But again. That’s just in a perfect(er) world.

As far as the other scenario, no. And no. I personally think Toronto screwed up when they didn’t trade William Nylander before his NMC kicked in. No team has won with a core of elite scorers and literally nothing else. Nylander might be pound for pound one of the most talented forwards in the game. But his defense is genuinely poor. If the Leafs had traded Nylander for a defender, and kept Mitch Marner, I think they’d be in a better place. Marner might not be the offensive difference maker that Nylander is, but he plays both sides of special teams, and is a complete two-way forward who’s still good for 80-90 points.

As for Knies for Robertson…(don’t know what the hell adjusted plus/minus is? Click here!)

When it gets down to it, Robertson really is the perfect weapon. It’s too bad hockey culture is backwards and the fancy suits gaslit hockey fans into thinking Robertson is not actually one of the best American-born forwards in the game, but here we are. Same world that justifies giving up picks for Logan Stanley (who has been predictably awful in Buffalo), or that Miles Wood has a place in the lineup over Kent Johnson. And to be sure a Knies trade could be easily justified. Despite his underlying numbers, he’s a 23-year old 6’3 power forward who is 60 points in the bank, and looks the part of the token manimal. If a trade like this happened, you’d get 20 stories within the first 10 games of how Knies gives Dallas a “different dimension” and all the usual after-the-fact analysis. It would absolutely break me because you can always see hackwork coming a mile away and I wouldn’t bother to hide my totally unprofessional frustration. But…

…a potential trade like this is not about the players but about the potential big picture. Carolina obviously downgraded from Mikko Rantanen to Logan Stankoven and some first rounders. But it also allowed them to flip those picks and the accompanying cap into K’Andre Miller and Nikolaj Ehlers. Knies at $7.75 million until 2031 would give the Stars not just cap relief, but flexibility of adding to the roster and bolstering the blueline. The Hurricanes are proof of concept that you can lose a trade, but that doesn’t mean you’ll lose the war. Typically the teams that make these big trades don’t have the appetite for more than one move at a time, which is where they get stuck. So if Knies for Robertson were on the table, it would have to be with others moves on the table in conjunction.

I’ve had this discussion on the Discord, and just to be clear, I’m not anti-trade when it comes to Robertson. I’m just anti-nonappreciation when it comes to Robertson as anything other than one of the best forwards in the game. If you think of forwards as being a stone skipped across the pond, I would even go so far as to say that there is not a Dallas Star forward who comes close to having his residual impact. He’s the rare blue chip talent who who can jailbreak a game and lockpick it.

This is just rhetorical question: Are we ever gonna get rid of Lundqvist?!

…

Yeah Everytime I see Lundquist I think of the first round pick we lost. Other than the top three D men it is hard to find a partner for Bish.

I’m jumbling these two comments together because they feel oddly out of place. But respect to you both, and don’t let me make you feel marginalized just because you have a different opinion. Early in the season, I would have agreed with you. Perhaps because I was just tired of this song and dance. It wasn’t about Lundkvist himself. I just didn’t feel the need to be put through the ringer. Again. And again.

But let this be a lesson for you eye testers (and I’m including himself here). What you do see when you watch Lundkvist? And be honest about how you answer the following question. Because it applies to everyone, and it cuts to the heart of any eye test.

• Are you seeing what you need to see, or what you want to see?

joy joy feelings: thanks for all the awesome content and the even-keel for things that need it and the sharp skepticism for things that need it too.

Oh! And a question: Your thoughts and Feelings on Peverley and what that means for the future?

Thanks Ash!

Nobody ever called me even-keeled before. For those that don’t know, Ash is part of our four-person book club where we take one full month to read a sci-fi/fantasy book of everyone’s choosing, and then talk about it for an hour. And yes, anyone can be a part of it as long as you’re on the Discord (which Dimitri Filipovic recently joined; which still makes me giddy). We read and discussed Children of Time, which for me was a delight as a quick and clean space opera but was otherwise extremely generic. It was the Wendy’s spicy chicken sandwich of space opera — better than it has any right to be, but neither good for your body or mind.

As far as Rich Peverley is concerned, I have no idea. When you look at player development under his watch, it’s improved in a big way on the prospect side. But it sounds like he’s also been involved in the pro scouting side as well, which has been much less successful. This is neither praise nor criticism though. After all, I have no idea what Peverley’s role has been in this dual-capacity. I can’t speak to Peverley’s record from within the organization, nor do I know what this portends for him as an assistant general manager. That he’s a former player tells me nothing about his ability to manage a sports operation.

It’ll be interesting to see how things break down in a post-Nill world. By all accounts, Nill sounds like a collaborator by nature, so I wouldn’t expect much to change. While my interview with Dallas’ Director of Analytics was largely about…well, analytics…we also got some insight into how Nill works with his team, hence my impression.

When everybody is healthy… what do you see as the Stars best line-up??

Alright this I expect to be a little spicy.

But here’s the logic:

• Michael Bunting has an established offensive history and can put up points under the right conditions whereas Hyrckowian is still an x-factor. In other words, Dallas has more to gain by getting the most out of Bunting².

• Bichsel might already be one of Dallas’ four best defenders. Hey, they’re making four lefties work in Buffalo!³

• My personal belief is that offense matters more than defense in limited minutes, which is why I favor Colin Blackwell just a smidge (he’s no home run hitter, but compared to the other forwards in his spot? Also helps that he’s a natural righty).

I’d only want to see this if everyone got some reps in the regular season though. I’m okay with the status quo otherwise.

Since we’ve basically gotten confirmation from Nill that the Robertson extension is happening and priority number 1, have Bourque and Lundkvist played themselves off the roster? Both are having parallel years in some sense where they’ve grown into trusted top six/four roles and have played pretty well while their counting stats haven’t necessarily caught up (although Bourque’s are starting to). It seems Bourque is going to need a fair raise/ bridge deal and Nils will probably deserve a bit more money and term as well. It seems to me like the Stars could fit those two guys into the cap after the Robertson extension, but then would have no money left over for anything else which may be an issue? That still leaves 3 forward slots and any defensive depth signings with very little money to spare.

I’m not going off anything concrete, but I have the sneaking feeling that no matter what has been said, all bets are off if Dallas gets ousted. I’m not saying this to be dramatic, nor am I saying this to be critical of this Stars team. It’s just an odds thing: the odds of Dallas being able to go the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive year would be an anomaly for any team. Even the Panthers couldn’t manage that. In addition, the playoff format puts them through the meat grinder within the first two rounds. It’s hard to imagine Dallas not looking to shake things up in that scenario, justified or not. Do I believe Nill is correct to keep Robertson, regardless of the postseason outcome? Yes. But just imagine if Dallas lost to Minnesota in the first round. You think anyone is happy to run it back? You think fans wouldn’t be itching to see a roster shakeup? This is amateur hour spitballing, I know, but still.

Mavrik Bourque is the player that I think Dallas will battle to keep. They won’t be able to shop at any bargain bin for a top six right winger, and Bourque, warts and all, has fit that bill. I suspect he’ll clear $2M in AAV easy but not much more. Lundkvist, conversely, is a lot harder to judge. With Tyler Myers in the fold, and Dallas being comfortable with their AHL depth (depth that keeps growing with the youth movement⁴), I have to think Lundkvist is the odd man out here.

That means shaking the Ilya Lyubushkin contract will give them room to bring in a veteran on one of those Benn or Kane type show-me deals. It’s not a bad scenario, all things considered. It’s worth remembering that even this roster as is still has a potential extra gear. Johnston and Harley in particular arguably haven’t shown their best.

Also, while I know Dallas doesn’t have a ton of prospects left, they haven’t exactly emptied the cupboards. Justin’s brother, Dylan Hryckowian already looks like his transition to the AHL won’t be problematic for him. Beyond him there are several players that have real potential IMO. It’s worth remembering that despite their experience as a playoff contender, the Stars contention window is still in its infancy.

1. This was famously the alleged reason for not taking Ryan Suter off the second power play unit.

2. The line with Hryckowian, Rantanen, and Johnston had great underlying numbers, but Dallas also had more goals with the Blackwell-Faksa-Bastian line on the ice so far than said Johnston line.

3. But not really. Ignore their record and they’re 16th in scoring chances allowed per 60. Not exactly proof of concept.

4. I’m down on Aram Minnetian this season, but that doesn’t mean I’ve given up on him. Three really good years at Boston College don’t just go away. I can’t wait to see him in Cedar Park.