Now and Later: A complete preview of the Dallas Stars versus the L.A. Kings
What happens if this matchup happens in the playoffs? That's what today's preview is for.
The L.A. Kings are, for my money, are one of the truly elite teams in the NHL; a bandwagon I was on before the season started. They stand out in the what is arguably the best division in hockey. The Pacific will no doubt send four teams into the Western Conference playoffs thanks to Edmonton winning 10 straight. Has my opinion of LA changed? No. But I can see why skepticism is starting to creep in for the public.
For those that don’t know, the Kings had lost eight straight (!) before finally beating Carolina last night. During their winless stretch, they were outscored 28 to 17 over that span. The competition hasn’t even been particularly fierce, with two losses to Detroit (a meh team), Washington (an actively bad one), and Tampa (a team that would deserve a better fate if they could get some saves). “If they’re so good then why are they so bad?”
All you have to do is add one word to that question. Why are they so bad, now? The answer is simple: regression. And not the kind of nebulous regression we’re talking about when a talented player keeps shooting at an above average rate. In these eight games, the Kings are shooting 4 percent (!), by far a league worst. Their save percentage ranks 23rd, giving them the second worst PDO in the league within that span. Unsurprisingly, the team with the highest PDO within that span is the Seattle Kraken, who have won 10 straight. In other words, the Kings will break out of the slump eventually, and unfortunately, it’ll most likely happen against Dallas.
(Here’s LA’s rolling expected goal differential; obviously trending down, but still a net positive overall.)
That doesn’t mean a win is guaranteed; just that the Kings are still very much a team to fear.
As for Dallas, if you’re wondering, the Stars are 11th in “being lucky” during the Kings’ winless streak. The Stars started the year off horribly, Miro Heiskanen went down to injury, they came alive against a barely-held together Minnesota team, came back down to earth against Nashville, and then actually had to steal one from a Chicago team that doesn’t even have Connor Bedard right now. The Stars are, of course, a good team. But they’re a good team that struggles to perform consistently as a unit. No matter how many losses the Kings have, they’re the opposite of Dallas: performing consistently, but not always getting consistent results. They’re gonna be a challenge for Dallas, regardless. What happens if they meet in the playoffs? Let’s pretend.