Previewing The Calgary Game (It's a Trap!) And Giving Thanks to Bob Murray, Ken Holland, Julius Honka, and Charlie O'Connor

And our Stars Stack artist, Ryan Konzelman!

Original artwork by Ryan Konzelman.

First off, apologies for the lack of a paid post this week. Paid posts I like to put more time and effort into, and as you might surmise, this week wasn’t ideal. Second: Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who is reading. Whether it’s a good or bad one, you’re always welcome to the Stars Stack community — hell whether you’re a Stars fan or not.

You might recognize a lot of names in the title but probably not the last one. And why would you? Charlie O’Connor is a Flyers beat writer, and why would a Stars fan care about a Philly beat writer? (Full disclosure: the Flyers were my secondary team for a minute. Always dug the logo, and Eric Lindros was one of my favorites.) Because of his creative post yesterday on the unlikely people Philadelphia should be grateful for. As much as I wanted to devote a whole post to it, stealing his idea would be in poor taste. That’s why I want to make this quick while giving him credit.

Why Bob Murray? Because he’s the one who was willing to part with a first round pick to nab Patrick Eaves (which turned allowed Dallas to trade picks with Chicago to move up to get Jake Oettinger). Why Ken Holland? Because he was the one willing to part with 49th overall and some prospects for Erik Cole and a third (49th overall became Roope Hintz). And why Honka and the Honka wars? Because his overtime goal to beat the Coyotes was the butterfly flap that directly affected Dallas moving into position to win the lottery in 2017 (which turned into Miro Heiskanen).

The thing about these exercises is that there are many different ways to give thanks. Sorry Charlie, but Dallas could easily replace Honka with Philly — for picking Nolan Patrick in 2017. But Flyers fans have been living with that pick for enough years to know all too well, and besides, part of that was rotten luck with Patrick’s injuries.

As Steve Dangle and Greg Amundsen have demonstrated with their trade trees, we could be here all day with this stuff. Everything goes back to Dallas’ 2017 draft. It’s the reason the Stars rate as the best drafting team from 2007 to 2018 in terms of wins added.

Data and visual courtesy of The Athletic.

Nonetheless, while we’re here, let’s give a stick tap to Barry Trotz and Nashville for buying out Matt Duchene’s contract. Duchene has been everything I thought he’d be, but x10.

Tonight’s Matchup Vs. Calgary

This is a classic trap game.

Why? Because the Flames have been one of the best defensive teams for years. They’re anchored by a top four of Weegar-Andersson, and Hanifan-Tanev (although not for long). And their top centers are strong defensively. Of course, their goaltending blows ass, which is why they’re 7th in expected goals against (limiting shot quality) since last season, but 19th in registered goals against.

The Stars are still a heavy favorite.

However, Calgary has the edge defensively at even strength, and on the penalty kill (surprisingly). The Flames are also on somewhat of run. In their last five games, they’ve only had one regulation loss.

Regardless of how many teams want to poach their current blueline (Dallas especially), the Flames are still very much in the thick of it. What helps them is that is that there’s a large mushy middle with teams like St. Louis, Seattle, Anaheim, Arizona, Nashville, Minnesota, and Edmonton in varying states of Huh?!?. Again, the Flames are a good team with bad goaltending. Well, ok fine. They’re a good team with bad goaltending and shitty offense, which makes them a bad team, but whatever. They shouldn’t be underestimated is the point.

What Dallas Needs

As I said in my postgame podcast following the Vegas loss, I don’t care about Jason Robertson’s production. I care about the player he’s evolving into. Scoring 100 points is hard to do. If he never does it again but develops into a T.J. Oshie type, I’m cool with that. If he scores 100 points again but becomes a power play merchant, I’m not cool with that. I don’t believe Robertson is trending in the right direction, but I do think he’s developing different parts of his game. If this metamorphosis happens to be a little messy, that’s fine. Regardless, he hasn’t looked terribly comfortable. A comfortable Robertson is a start.

Obviously, Dallas’ historical depth is the big story. But the forward trios have been getting pelted in expected goal share. The Wyatt Johnston line is at 42 percent (!). In fact, the Duchene Effect line is the only forward trio over 50 percent. We’re almost 20 games into the season, which makes the chemistry more than a little concerning. I’d expect the top line to snap out of it, but the Johnston line I’m less sure of. Outside of Benn’s hot start (I did warn you) and Johnston’s consistency, there hasn’t been much for that line to hang their hat on. Plus they’ve been punished on the defensive side of the puck. In fact, they’re getting outshot 144 tp 125. Any reason why nobody’s talking about this other than that production and wins tend to overshadow performance and patterns?

Just saying.

Beyond that, I’ll be looking at the Esa Lindell-Jani Hakanpaa pair, since they are back, and more trusted than ever. The two do exactly what they’re supposed to do: they shut down opposing offense.

The problem is that they shut down their own team’s offense too.

Just look at Dallas’ offense when the two aren’t on the ice.

Dallas basically doubles up their shot quality from 10 percentage points more likely to score a goal without them to 11 percentage points less likely to score a goal with them. Cost/benefit: does the benefit of their defensive security outweigh the cost of sacrificing offensive potency?

I know it’s annoying to constantly harp on this, but I think the dilemma is diplomatically worded. It’s quite clear that the experiment to give Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist more minutes has ended.

Ryan Suter is back to averaging 20 minutes a night, which means Pete DeBoer is in full playoff mode. Calgary won’t test Dallas’ blueline. But Dallas’ blueline will continue to test their own transition ability with heavy minutes going to their least offensive defensemen.

I appreciate that the coaching staff has given them the greenlight to activate aggressively, but some dogs don’t hunt. Will it matter? Not tonight. But in the long run, it’s worth watching out for.