Stars Stuff: A brief Central division overview, an L.A. preview, and Dallas not done trading?
Today's wrap report.
Winnipeg never had me convinced. They lost the most winnable playoff matchup to the Canadians in 2021. But they didn’t just lose to the underdog like Toronto. They got embarrassed. They followed that up by missing the playoffs in 2022 entirely, hiring Rick Bowness right after, and experiencing consecutive first round exits. So much of this team and their management has felt wrong. The misuse of Nikolaj Ehlers, the obsession of role players like Logan Stanley and Mason Appleton (no longer, thankfully for Jets fans), and then Mark Schiefele, who is an elite, but one-way forward and therefore not what you build around. Take away Connor Hellebuyck, and what have you really got?
Hockey’s best team, apparently. If you’re a Stars fan, you have to be at least a little scared. Hellebuyck is literally the best goalie on the planet, having saved 137 goals above expected since 2021, well above the 108 that Igor Shesterkin has been credited with. Their new head coach, Scott Arniel, didn’t like Jared Bednar bragging about leveraging analytics to beat Winnipeg in the playoffs, and thus began his own mathematical pilgrimage before the season started. They have their own Lian Bichsel story in Dylan Samberg, Kyle Connor is doing the other Connor impressions (currently up to 67 points), and they went to therapy as a team. I’m confident in saying that Dallas will not catch the Jets. Even if they were healthy, they wouldn’t catch them.
Because of that, it’s not too early to think about who the Stars could play in the first round. In fact, it’s darn near mathematical certitude in hockey terms that Dallas will play either Minnesota (most likely), or Colorado (likely).
The last stretch of games for both teams should include x-factors. Even though they’re without Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota is finally getting healthy again, and they’ve been scouting Buffalo for a potential deal to upgrade the lineup. This is the final year of their Ryan Suter/Zach Parise buyout cap, which is currently at $14.7 million this season, and falls down to $1.6 million next year until 2028. Colorado could make a late-season push depending on how aggressive they get at the deadline. They only have just shy of $4 million to work with by the trade deadline, but if they could move out Casey Mittelstadt, as has been rumored, perhaps they could make an ideal lateral move like they did with Mikko Rantanen. As I’ve said before, Martin Necas is for real, and I believe time will be kind to that deal on Colorado’s end.1
And that leads us to…
Jim Nill not done?
On 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman wrote that Dallas might not be done given the $4.5 million they’ll have to work with at the deadline. My only question is: for what?
It’s hard to see where Dallas upgrades. Heiskanen, Ceci, and Lyubushkin will be locked into the right side of the blueline. If Nill is only interested in UFAs, that leaves David Savard as the only realistic target, who at this stage in his career, profiles like a warm body and nothing more. Offensively, an additional forward would make life difficult for one of Mavrik Bourque, Colin Blackwell, or Oskar Bäck. In Bourque’s case, I’d argue he needs to be in the lineup. Perhaps Dallas wants up upgrade the top six to push someone like Logan Stankoven or Evgenii Dadonov down?
Whatever the case, it’s an interesting scenario where Dallas has a chance to spend, but to what end? Any money spent would feel like depth for the sake of depth unless Nill is able to move out players. But who does Dallas have that they can readily move out? Even the fourth line feels set. Nill’s plans obviously operate on a higher level than musings from the peanut gallery, but the San Jose trade makes apparent that Nill isn’t interested in being creative. I don’t say that as an insult, as I’ve written. I’m just curious what maximizing $4.5 million would look like in the context of a significant upgrade on either side of the puck.
L.A. Preview
The Kings are once again somewhere between underrated and overstated. They’ve been locked into a top three spot in the Pacific all season, but Calgary is gaining ground on them thanks to Dustin Wolf. Like Calgary, they can’t score goals, and they can’t score goals because their young players—specifically Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte—haven’t taken over the old core2. Unlike Calgary, their defense is not a mirage though. Not only have they allowed the fewest goals, but they’re #1 in expected goals against per 60.
Don’t be surprised if the game looks a lot like the Anaheim contest. Speaking of, Ilya Lyubushkin and Mavrik Bourque have been deemed possibilities per Mike Heika. The Lyubushkin injury is something of a mystery. On the surface, it doesn’t seem like something he’ll miss significant time because of. As for Bourque, it’ll be interesting to see who comes out in his place if he is ready. Blackwell seems like the most likely candidate given the healthy scratches he’s already taken, but he’s played pretty well over the recent stretch of games, and arguably should have stayed in the lineup the game before.
The main mission for tonight is to generate chemistry in Heiskanen’s absence. There is obviously no good way to do it except to survive it. Luckily for Dallas, they have different ways of doing that, between the offense stepping up, the blueline keeping their heads above water, and goaltending doing its usual sturdy self. And then there’s, of course, special teams.
Much has been said about the power play. Since January, they’ve been one of the hottest units. With 13 power play goals since the new year, they’re second behind only the surging Detroit Red Wings. That’s only five less goals than all of 2024. It’s taken them less than half as many games to convert nearly the same amount of goals. There’s an asterisk though. When they were unlucky, they were at least generating elite shot quality3. Now that they’re getting lucky, they’re becoming less deserving, as they rank 14th in expected goals per 60 ranks on the PP, just above the San Jose Sharks, and below the (surprisingly) surging Nashville Predators.
With Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene on the top unit, I’d expect these numbers to change, but it is worth pointing out.
P.S.
Nobody’s crowning Winnipeg just yet, and neither am I. In fact, nobody has more reason than Winnipeg fan and writer Garret Hohl to be optimistic about their chances when it gets down to the marrow, but even he has thrown cold water on their prospects with a strict, data-driven approach on where the Jets are falling short on categories that tend to project playoff success. They’re still a force to be reckoned with, no doubt. But I recommend reading his article in full, as it’s a template I’ll steal use to write something similar for Dallas before the playoffs start.
Doesn’t mean I think they won the deal — just that Necas won’t be the downgrade that many assume.
Turcotte is still a really good story though, and I believe Byfield gets there eventually.
They ranked 2nd in xGF on the power play in 2024. Although things weren’t so simple, as I wrote at the end of January in the film room.
Ha, I totally misread what you posted on Bluesky the other day and thought it was Dom speculating about more moves on defense instead of Friedman. I still don't see how they make things fit if they make a move to add another RHD though. Assuming Heiskanen's healthy for the playoffs, I imagine the D pairings looks something like:
Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Lybushkin/Ceci
Bichsel-Lybushkin/Ceci
It doesn't seem likely they'd put one of of Harley or Lindell on the third pairing just for balanced handedness. I have a hard time seeing Lyubushkin or Ceci scratched too, even if they add another RHD. They're both prototypical "playoff" defensemen (ugh) and were acquired this year. I'd think an acquisition pushes Bichsel out of the lineup in favor of a veteran (ugh again).
If Heiskanen's not healthy, I can see them wanting to upgrade Dumba, but that has two issues, in my opinion. First, if Heiskanen misses the first round, is it worth trying to make a push this year? I don't think swapping Dumba for Savard on the third pair makes a significant difference against the Avs or the Wild. Second, to your point, what do they have to trade to upgrade their 4RD? With the term left on his contract, I think Dumba probably costs an asset to move, and Dallas is really thin on sweeteners now with no first, second, or fourth round picks this year and a collections of B-level prospects if Bourque, Stankoven, and Bichsel are untouchable (which they should be in a trade for a third pairing defenseman).
There's always a chance Nill is working on something really surprising, but that hasn't been his MO in a long time now, and his biggest moves have been offseason anyway.
Sean said they're working on moving Dumba for another dman. That seems pretty believable to me.